I'm trying to figure out why ARLP is down 3% and AHGP is down over 11%.
Hey math, instead of getting #$%$ when things don't go your way, why don't you go short a different stock that isn't down 70% ytd. There are plenty of other stocks that have lofty valuations.
I didn't blame him for high gas prices. At the time he could have released some of the strategic reserve and it might have helped a little on the short term, but overall it wouldn't help in the long run. I also don't give him praise for low prices. He hasn't done a thing to bring them about. I don't really like him or a lot of his policies, but that isn't the point. I believe that in the long run the Paris summit will negatively affect the price we will pay for energy. Not to mention that the money we will be giving to other countries going further into debt and all they have to do is set their own policies and not show any type of proof that they are hitting those marks.
You might want to re-read the last conference call. They said where they see contract weakness is in 17 and that they have found while some people are buying at spot a lot of companies see value in having a direct price that makes sense on a business level, which they said they are seeing pricing in the mid to upper 40's.
They projected volume around the same and yes they have pricing contracts rolling off, but they have a good portion filled for 2016. Where contract weakness will be seen is in 2017.
Despite increased sales volumes, coal sales revenues of $547.5 million for the 2015 Quarter were slightly lower compared to the 2014 Quarter as a result of lower average coal sales prices, which declined 4.7% to $53.18 per ton sold.
Lower cost production also contributed to lower Segment Adjusted EBITDA Expense per ton, which declined to $32.65 in the 2015 Quarter, an improvement of 8.0% compared to the 2014 Quarter.
I don't see that happening. This isn't BTU or ACI, etc. Management knows what they are doing and they have a good portion of 2016 contracts secured. With pricing around 53 for this year and costs around 32 per ton, they are still positioned to hold distributions. Now if there is prolonged price softness for coal for multiple years, then yes I can see it then. But I think they are secure for 2016. The fact that BTU is running around 10 a share and has been losing money, I find this on the cheap. I just don't like price action. Also, this is pretty thinly traded and can be moved quite easily.
Personally, I would wait until you start seeing strength. We need to see the stock push above the 20 day, or even the 20 hour at this point. I think the fundamentals are still fine and it's crazy cheap imo. This price action is discouraging though.