I think we should hold until July number (Which likely release with Earning in
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Wow. I am still in good profit ( big as my short put for 29.5 give me lot lot of profit even GDX trade at same price. Also my short Call for 31.5 yesterday already in good profit.) So why I would concern????
With regard to Gold Market, I am significant long on physical gold (Brought between 1050-1250 & store in my deposit box + lot of jewelry my wife has) as well. So where I have risk.
1. They likely moving to low grade processing to increase mine life
2. They likely sell Gold Future as hedge in past and present which limit their gain with Gold Price
3. Market lately seem crazy on Miner which I think way over reaction. Lately There is no correction even when gold go down. This over reaction wont last way longer.
And on top of that I can short more to average down & I sell 50% cover put to keep my average down. At end I will make money even if GDX goes to 40 in couple month. 40 is limit unless gold goes above 2000 which No Govt will allow ( I doubt if govt allow above 1600).
It's trading like deal is cancel. So why worry about deal anymore. Downside is limited even if deal cancel. Market also have higher multiple so RAD will do fine.
If deal get road block we might go down bit but will recover very quickly back to 7.
I just added more short out of money put & long $7 call. Let's where this go.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Agree and People need to stop comparing Office/Staples here. It's totally different thing.
Now given how it trading lately, it sound like someone know something.
Can't really tell if someone trying to take advantage on fear that someone know something or there is some inside trading going.
I move to call option & some short put just started today as well. This reduce my risk significantly.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Biggest problem is Hedge that likely larger than normal given Gold trade above their mining cost after long period. That hedge limit their gain as well & may bring paper loss on book as well.
Second Biggest problem is raising mining cost. They likely start processing lower grade as Gold price stabilize to increase mine long term value & keep option open if Gold go down again.
Investor won't like those thing for sure as they calculating valuation based on Current Mining Cash Cost ( Cash Cost as overall cost is way higher given high grade processing bring down long term value)....
No way large player stay in for earning given Mining companies challenges which more apparent when they not able to mint money even with high gold prices.
I think day or two it will hang around this way. This give enough window for large player to reduce their position or start Short. Then correction will come before earning.
Added more short & also sell $32 call in good volume. Earlier I sold Some $29.5 Puts as well. So Overall my short average up above current price which is 52 week high. Very comfortable and I will sell more Puts when this go below or cover some as well so I can short again if go up.
Close my half of put position for small loss. I also sold way out of money call to cover half of those loss. But will keep it small as market getting into crazy mode and when crazy anything possible. I doubt it can stay too long. I do think large player working to exit.
Now it's hard to predict where resistance is but if I feel market gone crazy, I will short it.
This is reason I brought Put even when I need to pay premium.
That can put small loss (Not significant as I brought it when S&P was 1331+.)
I still highly doubt but given strong pre-market it's possible. If that happen, Short can't take Technical help & so no immediate crash even with bad news.
Which mean I will find time to build my strategy if market seems crashing.
Dust loss value with every up and down so take scenairo
dust:- 5.58 - gdx 30.64
Let's say every other day GDX drop 4% & raise 4% (Bit extreme case but not far off) for next week.
GDX will close 30.2 & DUST will 4.89 after 3 week trading
you lost 10% while GDX lost less than 1%.
Please note this not include Fee, Trading loss & Interest, in reality you might actually at 4.8.
You $4 put might look safe but 42 day is very long period.
Earning season starting. Now take one scary scenario.
Market is at all time high, Bond market all time high (In other word no place to run)
Brexit happen just before end of June, Lot of corp to corp deal ( Software/hardware/ Supply/ Aircraft/ engine ......) Lot of company may delay closing after brexit. Which mean earning surprise on bit negative side ( I don't expect huge gap as no pre-announcement that too bad)
This might create huge negative impact & create crash.
Let's hope this not happen.
Sad part of current rally is, it's with money from Europe & Japan. They have lot of cash & I doubt they looking as long term, they just parking money somewhere where they can earn some interest. When it reverse, no one able to stop downside.
Anyway, I have protection for next week atleast. bit costly but those few thousand dollar hedge well worth it. If Market drop just bit from this level, I will recover my investment, Will provide excellence hedge if market crash.
Remember Earning season also starting next week. Market will not take any negative. Some large deal might have closing problem after Brexit might create crash as well.
Sure can you buy everything you need on other places you mention. I mention scope & scale.
Anyway I also not betting against market with full risk.
After it drop below 7.10, I brought calls & when it go back to 7.18, I sold most of stock. So now my downside risk is small, I pay small premium so my cost gone bit up but I will not loss much if worst case scenario play out.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I am long on GLD(Though short Put near money) and have enough physical Gold to live though wrost case scenario. I will do fine. I also shorted Put for $30 for almost 2.5% premium for half of position.
GLD will not go down but once earning season start,
I expect GDX go down because Mining stock still have problems & market expectation is at moon with recent rally.
Reason I don't expect very good earning
1. They likely hedge gold quite a bit, They will have trading loss there (Paper loss but that mean they not getting full price that Investor betting on )
2. Mining focus on profitable mining based on $1000 price scenario, which reduce mine value & mine life. As Gold Raise they will switch which mean increase cost / ounce.
Problem with miner is every day, it get difficult to mine Gold.
I am still over all long (With selected stocks). Just hedging my long as there is strong possible sell off that can start any moment. I hate short and this is reason I am buying put even paying some premium.
Anyway good luck to you. Hope you don't use Margin. as long as you are not on margin, you will do fine.
I brought significant protection with Long Put Spread & Put. If go higher I still make money as I will short out of money call as well (Can't do today have left with no buyout power - have bunch of short NUGT call & Various other Puts that expire today) but Monday I will have significant buying power again.
There are lot of Short on sideline I think and They are not fool to take advantage of well know Technical pattern specially given economy fundamental aren't strong. They used before although it was below by 15-20 point away so never known as double top.
If you betting on DUST not going under $4 in 42 day, you going to lose 99.99%. That is odd i give you.
Even if GDX close below $28. ( almost 10% down) in 42 day. GDX will remain very volatile. I also plan trade actively this short trade including might sell Puts. (I hate shorting but equally I hate not having hedge to my all time high balance)
You never want to go leverage inverse fund ever other than betting on 2-3 day move
I would exit as soon as possible.
SPY yet again trying to cross 2132 level. Given volume and market, this is highly unlikely. Job Report is great but May was terrible and so it's not as good as people think. Just like Job report in may wasn't as bad as look.
This is not new trend in Job market.
I want to have safety so I brought put. I do short GDX and this will balance some risk as well.