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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

vs1234gs 693 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2016 10:32 AM Member since: Apr 12, 2001
  • Reply to

    Shorted GDX

    by vs1234gs Jul 8, 2016 1:11 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 8, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    Yes but Nothing can go up all time. If you investing based on next 5-10 year, may be great place to be ( I prefer GLD over GDX as Miner have lot of problem to overcome, Gold price will help but what is lost in last couple year not easy to recover)

    GLD price although unlikely going down, may stay around this level for while before move up. World Economy is not going to collapse over night.

  • vs1234gs by vs1234gs Jul 8, 2016 1:11 PM Flag

    Shorted GDX. Reason, it ignoring Job report & also while GLD is down bit. GDX is getting too far & companies problem can't go away that quickly. Companies who look like might go bankrupt have lot of issue to sort though and to avoid, they likely hedge on Gold Future as well so in worst case, they avoid bankruptcy. All those detail normally not available but quaterly result will reflect those effect heavily.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    who you follow GS or DB on $FSLR

    by ota2011 Jul 7, 2016 10:10 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 8, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    Why follow either. Go by fundamental. GS might come with bomb any day just like DB, DB can come with Rocket Bull any time.... Why we follow any analyst, they are smart but they play very big with us. They lost their reputation way long ago, just still surprise how they are still effective.

    Solar fundamental:- Short term: strong still, Long term probably best sector. In 10 year you might have majority electricity from Solar & all Coal plant might shutdown. (Cost of Solar generation is almost equal and going down & can generate any place.)
    Company fundamental:- Very strong balance sheet, best in industry, Generating significant cash (Don't go by future PE, Earning for solar depend on when project finish, World going with bigger and bigger projects actually)
    Market view:- Temporary negative with SUNE disaster but long term it's actually good that SUNE got bankrupt, Market will not push for such growth story again. Long term, I call it very solid as well. They willing to pay higher multiple soon for strong companies.

    So invest with both hand.

    I double down yesterday but cant resist with some $45 call premium expiring today and sell cover call for 75% of new position. I think they will get exercise today. No Big deal, I already sold out of money put today on equal weight so average remain same & if I that get exercise next week, My average will go down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Gold stocks waaaay ahead of gold

    by ex.goldbug Jul 7, 2016 4:05 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 4:23 PM Flag

    I agree. I wasn't expecting such rally in gold miner given problem they are facing & real cost of mining is way high as well (Current number look good on paper but there is significant flaw as there is investment cost which you must at least recover (Given loan you need to pay) They don't have much cash-flow even at 1500.

    I was long on Miner couple year back & burn real badly as I wasn't aware about all those item that impact write-down & so Loan become bigger than asset in some cases.

    I am not going to touch miner. I will sure take advantage of rally by shorting NUGT out of money calls if price remain high.

    Only mine stock I own is SA & NG. I plan to hold as they not investing in Mining but holding mine real estate. Rest all I sold end of last year for reduce my various short term profit. (Work well as this was long term loss that cut my short term profit). If i kept, I would make lot more but I still think it was right decision to reduce tax as I have very big short term profit.

  • Reply to

    Job Report

    by vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 10:11 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 4:15 PM Flag

    I agree on price point. My broker don't allow me to short else I would short this yesterday.
    Some what good thing is it does allow me to short naked Calls so I still selling out of money call over last 3 days (175,180,185) and cover 175 call today with good profit as well. I doubt it moving much over 180 & if that happen, I able to roll my short call with very very good premium. ( I consider somewhat good thing if it does go above 180 as I am not going to short even out of money call around 130 level.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RLYP seems very strong

    by vs1234gs Jul 5, 2016 2:45 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 4:04 PM Flag

    Look like my next week cover call for 19.5/20 will get exercise. I might regret but don't care, I am making money. I will still hold sizable stocks but if exercise this is about 20% of my peak holding.. I will only buy if this dip below 16 without material news or something that look over reaction.

    If Exercise, I will start selling out of large money put as well if premium is good.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Started small position

    by vs1234gs Jul 5, 2016 11:50 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 3:58 PM Flag

    Close most of other than profit. Too good run so can't resist. I am sure I will regret as when FDA filling news come out it will go 35+. But I still make good money.

  • Reply to

    Book value $5.5B & raising, Market value

    by vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 12:58 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 3:44 PM Flag

    Forget to mention this is my no.3 on top 5 position. I plan to sell some if go above 48. But only because I know stock will volatile and I can add back when it go down. Also I will keep selling way out of money call for 30%. (Was already doing that)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Book value $5.5B & raising, Market value

    by vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 12:58 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 3:40 PM Flag

    I can't wait so I double down. Now average is 46.
    While I don't like efficiency that company panel has, That is only negative thing. In time of uncertainity, Cash & Balance Sheet is most important.

    There are lot of govt project coming and not many company capable to bid even.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Company worth $6

    by ss_nandha Jul 7, 2016 2:19 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 3:20 PM Flag

    He really mean company worth at least $6 more than current price. I agree.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is key difference everyone ignore.
    While Both Office Depot & Staple is smaller company, There is no third office supply store that can match size and scope of Those in Retail. While Amazon quickly becoming alternative, it does not have retail operation. Walmart or other super retail store has limited scope of Office supply.

    Now compare this to Walgreen /Rite Aid:-
    Yes it's merger between No.1 & No.3 but There is CVS that match size and scope and also walmart, target, costco & Number of retail super store that also match size &/or scope of pharmacy & other operations. In other word, there are many many alternative.

    Unlike Office Supply where market still building online ( Problem office depot or staple face is not about Amazon but There is little need of office supply in this digital age where people don't even print much in office anymore. Why would when they can read their email and content on phone and tablet.)
    Pharmacy market fully develop on mail order front. In-fact it probably bigger than retail.

    Company already willing to give up almost 1000 store to other. This is also significant as company aware possible problem and already provide plan when they ask for approval.

    While Office Depot/Staple was survival story, it do have significant problem with monopoly. Walgreen - Rite Aid does not have that problem.

    We can't predict outcome but market lately not giving good odd for approval even after very positive report from reputable media company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Book value $5.5B & raising, Market value

    by vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 12:58 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 1:58 PM Flag

    Also Balance sheet is very clean as well. While whole sector has lot of debt, FSLR has very limited debt (I can call debt free as most are payable & future obligation like Lease and not bond).

    FSLR is buying opturnity & even if market melt-down, this is good company to invest as Global warming problem not going away with economy melt-down.

    BTW I sold $43 Put expiring next week. Good premium. Already hold good ammount of stock. I will sold more if it go further down or buy stock as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is madness. My current average is 48 and I will add more if it go below 40. Might soon become my top 5 position.
    This is industry that will grow significantly regardless regression, FSLR is strongest player and should trade at premium and not discount.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    UGLY DROP.. 100 BUCKS BY MONDAY

    by rahwearinc Jul 7, 2016 9:06 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 12:35 PM Flag

    Market driven by Investor sentiment that keep changing. They moving their asset across every day, this causing rally rotation across sector.

    So when job report come out strong they will sell GOLD//Bond move to Finance and other. When they get impact of Europe madness, they will move back to Gold/bond.

    Only news that material for long term is Trump get elected (Whole world will go to great depression era specially if he make Saddam as his role model), More Euro member exit... Rest all is clown show but do carry temporary impact. (Brexit is significant only if other Europe member follow them)

  • vs1234gs by vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    Here is what I expect.
    1. Adding 100K+ jobs atleast (Won't suprise if 200k)
    2. Last month job revise up (Could be 60K+)

    This is likely in my opinion and not good for Gold temporarily. Definitely not good for Mining stock (People investing way too much and that is always biggest risk as when exit signal come every one will try to jump from ship same time just like everyone trying to board same time.)

    This is side effect of Internet Era...

  • Reply to

    UGLY DROP.. 100 BUCKS BY MONDAY

    by rahwearinc Jul 7, 2016 9:06 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 10:08 AM Flag

    although world look for alternative and so this will remain volatile. I think we should look at GDX to predict price. I don't see GDX go back below $25 and so short term we may not see 100, I also don't see GDX go much above $30 ( Unless we have ugly job report which unlikely given private job report) anytime soon.

    GLD also unlikely go above 1450-1500 range anytime soon. Although I am still long on Gold (Always long actually as few percentage of my asset in physical gold always, If world fail, gold/silver is essential to survive, unlikely that I will see it in my lifetime but just in case.)

  • Reply to

    Can the USD really collapse ??

    by radmok Jul 6, 2016 9:13 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 7, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    Bay Area is technology hub, Technology driving economy and so you do expect Bay area with inflation ( Real Estate specific). Also if Inflation raise will make dollar strongly as Europe & Japan can't control deflation so far. With Inflation, US will raise interest which make US dollar more attractive to invest. (It already very attractive given negative interest other places)

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 6, 2016 3:54 PM Flag

    I think it while before it go back to $100 but this fund design to lose value overtime so regardless where Gold stay, this will happen sooner or later. This is great very short term vehicle. For example I am getting 3%+ premium and 5%+ protection when sell 175 call. I shorted few today ( From 175-185 range) If market remain crazy, I will roll it & collect more premium. if expire, I will short next week as long as price remain this level.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short ed EWZ

    by vs1234gs Jun 30, 2016 12:14 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 6, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    Cover it. 5 point gain is sweet. Will short again above 30.5 (This time may be out of money call).

  • Reply to

    $170 by tomorrow

    by jrcumins Jul 6, 2016 9:43 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jul 6, 2016 12:16 PM Flag

    correction if you adjust for price NUGT was in 1000's as well, Dust was 10K's actually. This is reason I don't afraid shorting 3X leverage fund. GDX highest ever price is $70, Unless gold go above 2200, that not going to happen. ( There are lot of loses that this Miner take over last couple & some add additional equity which mean price not going back there)

    I think $1500+ for Gold & $35+ for GDX is unlikely and that mean NUGT stuck around 200 with losing value every with every up and down + I get premium for call, I think it guarantee small weekly money flow as long as Call volume and premium not dry up & I don't go crazy Shorting more calls (Greed is problem normally) as price raise.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy