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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

vs1234gs 678 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2016 10:32 AM Member since: Apr 12, 2001
  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 29, 2016 11:00 AM Flag

    I own some ( Mainly from profit) and loss. Sold it at 0.35. I don't think there was anything wrong with recommending. It was something that very risky but also very rewarding. Think if result come positive at intrim, it might Quadrup or more. I hate betting but I do trading on those time to time (Specially when trial result come positive) and keep profit invested. Overall workout very well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SunPower efficiency is great news

    by vs1234gs Jun 28, 2016 12:31 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 29, 2016 9:04 AM Flag

    Remember this product yet available in market. When it happen ( And other will playing catch-up with at least year behind) Many project will choose their solar panel over other. Most will go full system than just solar panel as make installation cost lower.

    I think at current price, it's very good investment specially if you willing to hold for few years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SunPower efficiency is great news

    by vs1234gs Jun 28, 2016 12:31 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 29, 2016 9:01 AM Flag

    I am not sure why you trying to spread such claim. My research show, Sunpower is much better quality product for any environment and offer 25 year warranty is not small thing (If they have defective product), It also Look better as well. Reason it does not have market share in India is due to price sensitivity. Many in solar industry specially in developing world don't know difference and so they think Sunpower is expensive. But as I indicated, Market will correct itself when realize actual cost when include real estate & maintainance.

    This not going to happen overnight but this company making profit and so it is better position than most other. Market is big for all but most innovator will win at end.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SunPower efficiency is great news

    by vs1234gs Jun 28, 2016 12:31 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 28, 2016 2:14 PM Flag

    When you look at land prices in places like India,Europe, You will realize how important efficiency is.

    Same apply for roof top ( In some cases USA as well) , average rooftop size in Europe, India other developing world is way smaller & so again efficiency is key.

    I agree cost point of view & yes China will keep dumping lower quality panels in market but I am talking longer view, Cost will reduce & Quality will matter & people will understand efficiency important.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs by vs1234gs Jun 28, 2016 1:39 PM Flag

    I think this is safer investment.
    US only checked
    Buyout at $9 checked
    Walgreen commitment checked.

    If Walgreen kill deal due regularity issue (Only possible cause), down side is limited ( $6) given Mainly US only market + breakup fee is significant & help company invest more.

    over all i give deal likely to go (80% certain) & in case it goes, I make almost 20%, in-case not, i might loss 20-30%.

    This is good risk-reward buy given overall market uncertainty.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Huge short interest leads to big runs

    by glenntrader Jun 28, 2016 12:37 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 28, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    short interest at 48% while this is only drug on market (I don't count other 50 year old which no one like).

    Unless same player doing long and short ( large hedge fund sometime do that), this short interest is not sustainable. I think most short player here for short term betting script will not grow fast enough which will push some of large player out.

    Last month and half short interest raise by 50% while stock price also raise ( after start of last month reset) so short interest increase but we have more buyer than those who shorting....

    And Given ZS9 CRL, possibility is reduce & growth in new patient likely resume starting this month.

    It's entirely possible that growth actually exceed already lowered expectation by mile.

    I have feeling we will have rally. I am not investing more given Brexit ( already reduce to 50% with selling most between 19-21.) but my gut feeling says we will see 25 sometime soon. Some news leak about buyer interest will likely going to happen as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I have position around $16.5 and late at reading news else double down at start of day when it was still below 14. Given market being volatile, I will wait bit.

    Efficiency is great news for both rooftop & large solar farms. Reason space is most costly specially outside USA.

    Being leader there is key to success when flood of new large solar farms built by developing world along with other. (Going to happen in year or two)

    Stock is way undervalued & overall solar market is also undervalued. I will wait bit but will add more soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    short some 240 put expiring next week

    by vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 3:31 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 27, 2016 11:25 AM Flag

    On large cap, GILD is very attractive, management does not rush & will pick good biotechs.
    Short term:- RLYP
    for long term on small/medium:- I like AMRN, ICPT, ACAD,ARNA,AERI, SRPT,PTCP, GERN,GALE, SAGE, OTIC,OMER,ITCI,INCY,JUNO,FWP

    But half of them I am just keeping watch as their Trial result progress.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Finally market correcting. Now this is where I think market will trade for bit. 190-200 range. My bet:- we won't have another big crash at least before job report. ( I doubt job report matter but I avoid 7/1 expiry still.

    I cover my short started on Friday with very good profit ( Almost 3+ point)

    I also sell 193 put expiring 6/30 ( Day before job report ) for very good premium. I do have short call option (210) so it balance it out. If exercise will keep selling cover call..

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    short some 240 put expiring next week

    by vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 3:31 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 27, 2016 9:08 AM Flag

    Agree Biotech can go either way in short term. But unless US fully control healthcare like Canada, there is no long term impact. it's possible that US take control but it's not easy. if there is indication such i will exit else I will keep double down. ( As I indicated, I know how to lower my cost basis using option strategy once I own stock)

    Reasonable pricing is not bad thing if they also work to remove payer resistance. Payer resistance regardless of price is biggest reason they set higher price. If only 25% claim will get approved regardless price, why not charge higher. It's cycle that concern me

    And this price debate will have at least one positive spin where they make more rule for insurance to cover reasonable price new drug at same par as current drug on market. Also volume can bring down some down side significantly as well.

    Over all Biotech is very innovative area & changing world. They will proven undervalued in long run.

    Only thing that can kill biotech is Govt total control (in USA) & I do hope that never happen as more than finance, innovation will stop and that not good for mankind.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 5:21 PM Flag

    just because they vote that crash market, don't call them stupid. Market is stupid infact that they think when people vote, first thing they think about is my vote won't cause crash!!!!!

    Voter get misguided but reason is crooks on wallstreets & politics. Both think world is perfect if market price keep going higher & world is broken if Market crash. In reality majority don't care what happen in market. (They get impacted but not directly (more due to 401k or job issues or commodity prices or Loan rates..) )

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 5:05 PM Flag

    Media is embarrassment to all over world. ( They repeat what they believe. Only reason we have Trump become candidate because Media give him so much important.

    Only reason Brexit happen because media draw scenario that Out side EU there is no life which is lie. When you LIE, people doubt even good side & so they turn away.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    thoughts

    by antoniojr93 Jun 24, 2016 3:27 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    If you hoping for bailout from reserve banks, stop dreaming.
    Japan & EU both has negative interest rate and most other has near 0.

    Yes they can buy unlimited fund open market. Problem is interest in Bond already negative so now not just they have risk that Asset they buy may drop in value significantly but if they hold more, they actually paying interest than earning on it. They can print unlimited money but they don't have budget to pay Interest on top of it. (Normally other-way around where they earn money so they didn't plan that category.)

    So reserve banks have no tool to stop bleeding. Sure they can do temporary stop still but eventually will fail. When reserve banks across world fail, Market will crash that no one ever thought would happen ( SPY could go below 5000-8000 assuming US FED didn't actually fail) as this would happen first time in history & how it play out no body know....

    Best thing Reserve bank do is, ignore market reaction as natural & hope this is one day event.

    We are in very risky world. If you don't invest, your money eventually become worthless with all this money printing & if you invest there is huge risk come with it.

    Good side for us is USA is comparatively better shape than most other out there.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    short some 240 put expiring next week

    by vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 3:31 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 3:47 PM Flag

    I wish I have that much patience. I do have plan that will help me navigate if it keep going down. I use cover Call & short out of money Put for average down & IBB is perfect for such plan as it has weekly options, always have good premium & very good option volume.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Risky:- yes, Will exercise- I give 50%+ chance actually, but I am willing to buy that price if it get exercised.

    Biotech will proven safe haven if this bring recession and investing at 240 is not bad price to get in. There are many biotech expensive or risky but there are many which undervalued or could have positive catalyst as well. Instead betting on single pharma, I think investing here is better option.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Its too bad

    by antoniojr93 Jun 24, 2016 3:04 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 3:15 PM Flag

    Whole market is going down as I expect . We doing way better actually as I thought ( Due to large short position which probably making switch). I also wonder if deal discuss going in background. Let's see where this go.

    I do hope we have some decent growth on script number on July 15th.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Soon to come following Brexit

    by ycleenc Jun 24, 2016 11:19 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 2:18 PM Flag

    Agree other country has bigger risk than UK but Problem is not all population is economist. UK prove that. Biggest problem is Aging & job/pay security (Immigration & outsourcing) that all these country suffering & they never like anything they see & don't have enough money to go though their retirement. ( Reality is they make their own mistake by overspending but then blame govt.) Also people think aged people care about next generation but reality is other-way around.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is termination penalty

    by vs1234gs Jun 22, 2016 4:07 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    so if you invest in us treasury for 10 year you get 1.5%, you invest LNKD, without cause what MSFT should pay if it terminate as buyer, it's as safe as Treasury (MSFT owe full money regardless it buy it or not or would settle & pay Billions for sure) and actual return is more than 5% ( less than 7 month)...

    I don't have millions or ability to short treasury , else I would buy LNKD & short US treasury expiring at year end...

    That is kind of safety you have.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    My Shopping List for Today

    by stock_lurker Jun 24, 2016 12:29 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 1:04 PM Flag

    That exactly is what problem. Sooner European union dismantle, better we get .... Overhang will kill. everything.. ( If re-vote happen, there is no end to that process.. Very bad for everyone.)

    European dismantle going happen, it's just matter of time.

    I don't care about European Union, They become one for wrong reason ( Hope to Rule rest of world again) & now realize USA, China, India will not let that happen, And Middle East will keep playing OIL card as well & many other factor include IT revolution mainly make hard to hide reality to people... Also people like Trump will keep fooling people short term....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 24, 2016 12:41 PM Flag

    Buyout rumor is sure due as well (assuming market don't crash only trade bit lower) & if happen, we might see $25+ again. This is reason I buy back when fail to secure some Option Strategy...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy