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FRX Message Board

wallcheat 852 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 15, 2004 1:24 AM Member since: Aug 31, 2001
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  • must be what brought the stock down

    meanwhile, those bubbleheads keep their amazon and ebay

  • Reply to

    what's amazing is amzn, ebay, yhoo stay

    by terriblerhymer Dec 26, 2003 12:54 PM
    wallcheat wallcheat Dec 26, 2003 12:56 PM Flag

    maybe not

    I suspect there is a rotation going on, out of amazon into iaci

    we'll see

  • could be a good contrarian indicator on a stock by stock basis

    realize that scmr was downgraded on the 20th which almost seems like an orchestrated short squeeze by the analyst

  • wallcheat by wallcheat Sep 9, 2003 12:43 PM Flag

    didn't Barron's just do a negative piece on them

    they are the ultimatae contrarian indicator - at least on the shorot term basis

    when I first got into trading in 2000, they wrote a big piece trashing aol before the bubble had burst - one of their best calls

  • Reply to

    UBS Upgrade is HYPE...Late

    by whynot327 Sep 4, 2003 11:14 AM
    wallcheat wallcheat Sep 4, 2003 11:37 AM Flag

    thata said I have seen a lot of double contrarian moves lately

    like Cramer

    he was always good contrarian in the past, but for all of this rally he has been dead on right

  • Reply to

    UBS Upgrade is HYPE...Late

    by whynot327 Sep 4, 2003 11:14 AM
    wallcheat wallcheat Sep 4, 2003 11:35 AM Flag

    ubs is very much like prudential and bofa, very good contrarian indicator

  • Reply to

    mixed signals

    by veryskeptically Sep 3, 2003 11:57 AM
    wallcheat wallcheat Sep 3, 2003 12:02 PM Flag

    lots of so called smart money shorting indexes like qqq aand ndx, in preference over individual stocks

    also qqq and ndx being used as downside hedgeing protection

  • someething else strange to ponder

  • wallcheat by wallcheat Sep 2, 2003 2:25 PM Flag


  • wallcheat by wallcheat Sep 2, 2003 2:22 PM Flag

    i do not subscribe at all to the theory that economic growth and corporate profits are in tight correlation with stock prices

    this last rally is a liquidity event, fueled by short squeezes and contrarian sentiment

    I think the bulls have been nervous and skeptical all along - and we know what the bears have been doing

    billions upon billions of fresh hedge fund dollars betting on the wrong side of the market contributed a lot to what we are seeing

    I also taae the view that the 2000-2002 market downturn was purely technical and sentiment based, not some big economic downturn

    I think the economy has actually been darn good on a historical basis these last few years

    what we having been suffering from is a mellowing and restructuring in the industrial sectors

    I used to work in industrial tech and factory automation, and I got to see first hand all the massive and automated production capacity put in place

    what has been driving stocks like Rockwell and Danaher of recent( this is carrying the rest of tech anad industrials with it) is a small uptick in business that is the result of so much pent up deemand from holding back of industrial projects - combine that with the fact that many big manufactureres have more cash because of all the labor cost cutting they have done the last few years

    the market is way overreacting though, becauase i dont think there is any huge surge coming

    the negatives as I see it for the economy - the buildout of the SouthWest which has fueled so much economic growth is complete, it is finished - look at Phoenix - we don't need anymore malls, anymore Olive Garden restaurants, and certainly no more large commercial spaces - and this will hold true for a long time

    - inflation - Joe consumer if he has a job is paying more for healthcare, home insurance, car insurance, gasoline, energy, tuition ( all essentials, all non-discretionary)

    - refi boom coming to an end

    so many negatives

    is there an offsetting positive, maybe,

    maybe China's big industrialization and modernization phase can pull the rest of the globe along with it just like the United states pulled the rest of the world along for so long


  • Reply to

    Deleted Message

    by yahoo May 9, 2005 2:06 PM
    wallcheat wallcheat Sep 2, 2003 1:37 PM Flag

    that was me bear

    odsy shorts are probably a small group of hedge funds that put up big positions, doing it mostly on valauation basis as apposed to having some true dirt on the issue - price action today is a short squeeeze I would think

    back to pharma - I think the short term weakness was contrarian market action - people are still putting money in, but no one is shorting, so these stocks are not squeezing like the rest of the market

    I must say though, that the overall market action is getting very odd

    liquidity has not beeen that great, yet the price action in Nas is spectacular - the short squeeezes are starting to look more powerful than the long-side daytrading of 1999

    with so much overhead supply you would not expect this

    1999 was so strong because the entire market was in teechnical breakout mode with no overehead supply whatsoeever

    can violent short squeezes as we are seeing offset all the downward pressure of overhead supply

    the indexes are only creeping but small float issues are powering ahead with giant leaps, even old economy, sleepy, low volume stocks arae posting spectacular gains - just look at hele of troy, hele

  • Reply to

    Deleted Message

    by yahoo May 9, 2005 2:06 PM
    wallcheat wallcheat Sep 2, 2003 12:42 PM Flag

    money flowing thick to pfe and wye today, well looks like it anyway

  • Reply to

    Deleted Message

    by yahoo May 9, 2005 2:06 PM
    wallcheat wallcheat Aug 28, 2003 3:28 PM Flag

    that is a anothing article

    i still beleive we are on the cusp of a big pickkup in broadband demand, it is the essential tool of globalization which condtinues apace, and ip telephony is going to kick in big time very soon

    so the optical switch market doldrums may be coming to an end

    I don't like the fact that it is crowded - scmr, cien, corvis, telm etc....

    but they still all have compelling technology and thteye all still have decent balance sheets

    i have lost touch will the technology differneces bewteen the players , but I think there will be some big surprises as to who might start landing big orders

    scmr in particular may have some big surprises coming

  • wallcheat by wallcheat Aug 28, 2003 2:35 PM Flag

    is not this whole retail price action puzzling to you as well

    I did not understand why they all completely cracked in the first quarter, being that they were not overpriced stocks to begin with

    but do you remember:

    sports authority(was garts) at 13 bucks
    bby at 17
    michaels at 20
    Sears at 17

    and now look at them

    all practically tripled

    you just don't expect that kind of volatility in old economy stocks

    you couldn't give em away then
    now you can't get enough and all the pathetic chasing analysts who had downgraded at the bottom

    they are showing price action like that of nasdaq tech stocks

    what do you make of it - besides an awesome buying opp. thata manay of us missed out on

  • wallcheat by wallcheat Aug 28, 2003 2:16 PM Flag

    with that

  • it is ironic that slab short interest is trending down strongly - I am betting that short interest took another big drop just since the 15th in this latest runup

    in my opinion slab shorting prospects would seem to be looking better and better the closer we get to the TI one chip solution

    it is hard to imagine that this won't be a big negative to slab - I mean this is part of TI's core strategy to capture this market, so if they fail thye will be failing at a core goal which would not make the TI shareholders happy

    in any case those that covered slab shares in the 20s were ultimately the smart ones - I wonder if they will start piling on again soon

  • wallcheat by wallcheat Aug 28, 2003 1:09 PM Flag

    what do you think of ztel -- could be a takeover target?

    also do you even consider telm for networkers - it could be a good contrarian play - myabe also a takeout candidate

    I ama generally bullish on networking equipment from a revenue standpoint, but not from a margin expansion standpoint

  • Reply to

    Deleted Message

    by yahoo May 9, 2005 2:06 PM
    wallcheat wallcheat Aug 28, 2003 11:09 AM Flag

    bear these stocks have already had akiller rally

    look at afci

    it has ben nothing short of spectacular

    even loser co extr

    valuations are now high, very high

    so how much more?

  • wallcheat by wallcheat Aug 27, 2003 1:59 AM Flag

    how are you so sure that the TIs of the world are just going to sit back and let them have this whole single chip market to themselves?

  • Reply to

    Deleted Message

    by yahoo May 9, 2005 2:06 PM
    wallcheat wallcheat Aug 26, 2003 6:00 PM Flag


    you and Paulinskus are really playing with fire

    shorting right here on tech could prove to be very daangereous

    the market of 2000 killed some on the short side, but there were only some to kill

    now there are manay shorts to kill, and the market likes to destroy the expectations of masses of so-called smart money more than anaything and this is why it is so dangerous here

    the stock specific breakouts you are seeing on a daily basis are just like they were in 2000 only the stocks are different - best to stay out of the waya of any nasdaq stock that could have better than expected news - shich includes just about all NDX stocks

    the economy is in a holding pattern until a new negative trend starts actually manifesting - which could be like a slump in the housing industry - but this trend needs to fully start manaifesting and there is yet proof of that

    so you guys should listen to the bear, he really seems to have the inside track intot whata the big boys on the street are doing and that is extremely important right now

    i think there truly is a battle going on between the brokers and the beara hedge funds and the bull hedge funds and those hedge funds thata are smart and big enough to manaipluate all of the former

    it is best to stay out of the way of these battles

    these guys have massive amounts of money to play with

    only until you see the mutual funds start to raise significant amounts of cash will you see the maraket start to falter - it has not happened yet

    a good short of recent would have been amgn - I do beleive some significanatly selling pressure has been hitting that sector lately especially amgn, idph, bgen anad that was called by the brokere houses over a month ago - but there was the usual delay and further run-up before you actually saw some true rotation out