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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

warnbeeb 40 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 4, 2016 8:55 PM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Compare Chart of Visa V and GILD @ $76.93

    by carolyn_novice Sep 2, 2016 2:40 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Sep 4, 2016 8:55 PM Flag

    100,000 shares is 2.5% of their position. That's hardly an indictment that GIlD is a sell. The fund is simply trading around their position or reallocating funds to better more imminent stocks. If Fidelity actually though GILD was doomed they'd be selling more. I do my homework too. Your post was amateurish.

  • Reply to

    Justice Dept

    by net_srfer Aug 18, 2016 1:12 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 18, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    Interesting what govt is going to do. Dozens of facilities run by GEO and CWX just going to be emptied out? Where the prisoners going to go? Let em go? Does govt have space somewhere else to send them? Quantanimo has some space.

    The states don't have the money to reopen or build their own facilities. They can't follow.

    I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't going to be put on hold or delayed or cancelled over time. Just don't see where govt had resources to run their own facilities that the private prisons already built

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Jul 21, 2016 12:59 PM Flag

    This is sound sort of goofy spike on no news. I don't expect Mason to ever actually mine graphite. They do not have any money to dig. They do have a valuable asset....graphite. I expect it back to .50 in a few weeks

  • Reply to


    by jmyduce Jul 11, 2016 10:05 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 15, 2016 11:22 AM Flag

    In keeping with my comment, however, the stock went ex-div about 2+ weeks ago and will pay.30/sh to the owners of the stock around the 1st of August. So if NLY was around $10.90 to $11 at ex-div it will be around $10.60 to $10.70 by around the dividend pay date.
    What I expect is for NLY...if it holds to it's recent pattern...will return to the $11 +/- area shortly after the div. is paid.
    It's not retreating because of shorts. It's retreating because of the .30 dividend payment coming up.
    In the end a shareholder will be roughly "whole".

  • Reply to


    by jmyduce Jul 11, 2016 10:05 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 13, 2016 10:00 AM Flag

    I don't know why you would get a thumbs down either. It was a fair question.

    I don't get worked up on the day to day swings in NLY. You will notice that around ex- dividend time it jumps around some. The last year or so, the stock price bounces right back after the ex-date. I think that's a very good sign.

    I consider NLY a very long term, strong hold. Much better than a high yielding bond fund.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to


    by jmyduce Jul 11, 2016 10:05 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 11, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    I've been a long term holder least 5 yrs....and own shares at higher prices than this....but most are at lower prices. I have DRIPPED my dividends from the beginning and hold a lot of shares. NLY is the biggest position in my portfolio...around 8-9%. I am quite happy and do not expect to sell any shares unless it careens up and exceeds 12% of my portfolio. Eventually, I hope to take my dividends in retirement. NLY is in a retirement account.
    To answer your question, I doubt NLY is a short target. It might be traded long/short by big boys who hold bigger positions and want to hedge around their position, but because the dividend is so big I doubt it attracts pure short sellers.....for very long.
    NLY is very, very well followed. There are no secrets with this company. They are as good at this mortgage REIT business as anyone.
    NLY has been brilliant in how they've managed their portfolio. They're positioned or slow, incremental interest rate hikes that do not appear to be on the horizon. There will not be any big interest rate hikes this year. And regardless of who wins the presidency, it's unlikely there will be in the next 2-3.
    I don't expect an NY dividend hike, but I believe hike is more likely than any more cuts.

  • Reply to

    This has been a huge rebound for Quad

    by thirdpartyoperator Jul 10, 2016 11:00 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 11, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    The company hasn't said a word since earning over 2 mos. ago. There have been some pre-set insider sells, but no insider buys other than option conversions. I have not seen one...not one...analyst upgrade or report or comment on any business site or television show. No one has said a word about QUAD. I'm suspicious is this foreign buyers looking for yield. Europeans. There is no yield in Europe or Japan.
    This stock has essentially doubled since earnings on absolutely no news. None.
    I'm not complaining.....just fascinated.

  • Reply to

    This has been a huge rebound for Quad

    by thirdpartyoperator Jul 10, 2016 11:00 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 11, 2016 9:51 AM Flag

    If they meet expectations the stock is over valued. They gotta beat. They gotta raise guidance to justify this price and get to $30.
    I would love to see them show RISING SALES for the first time in several quarters.

  • Reply to


    by warnbeeb Jul 6, 2016 11:21 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 7, 2016 6:20 PM Flag

    My online brokerage says analyst estimates for this quarter are for - .11 to - .18. But other sites I follow estimate '16 earnings of $1.00 to $1.10 per share, but about the same for 2017. Report early August.

    I own the stock have owned it for several years. I held all the way down below $9 and have dripped my dividends all the way.

    Interestingly I don't see where anything has changed for QUAD. Their sales continue to shrink....slowly. Printing is not a growing sector. QUAD is the biggest printer in S America. S. America economies in Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela are cratering. Odd.

    Even as I own the stock I'm nervous. It has climbed all the way back and there had been no news. None. I also own RRD...both because of dividends.

    I sold 10% of my QUAD and am now selling calls. I'm going to make money regardless. I do think QUADs dividend is safe. I think that's what driving this rise.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Jul 6, 2016 11:21 AM Flag

    They better be good.

  • Reply to

    Why are ABX short sellers so nevous?

    by au_rico_wealth Jun 30, 2016 1:26 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 1, 2016 8:41 PM Flag

    Looking for AbX to set 10 yr high before I sell. History of miners is big, long swings. Low low low.....then high high high......waiting for it to peak at new 10 yr high

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 1, 2016 8:36 PM Flag

    I agree. I sold 10% of my position earlier this week with the idea that I might sell moreif it moved up more. It did and I didn't. I'm afraid I'm now getting greedy which is not good.
    So I sold Oct $22.50 calls for .$2.25 today, locking in at least $24.75 price if it keeps going up.
    If it doesn't I still keep the shares, collect the .30 quarterly dividend and book the call premium.
    Betting QUAD is no more than $22.50 by Oct expiration. If not....I get one more dividend and $24.75.
    Only sold calls on 1/2 my position.
    This has been a really good investment.
    Don't want to stay too long at the party.
    Next earnings report will be huge.

  • Reply to

    Narrowing spreads?

    by farfbits Jun 29, 2016 3:01 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 1, 2016 2:30 PM Flag

    I doubt distributions change for at least a year. If and when they do change I'd be thinking they will go down before they go up.

    Best guess is we stay at .30/qtr for the foreseeable future.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 30, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    Goes up pretty much every day...2-4%. No news. Nothing. Incredible. I'd like to think I'm brilliant for owning this stock, but if anyone asks me what do they have going that makes it such a great investment I say, "I don't know". Their sales are actually dropping. The earnings are ephemeral. Cash flow covers the dividend. That's about it. Volume is flat to down a little. Who's buying?

  • Reply to

    This is way overdone.

    by bootcop1 Jun 27, 2016 9:17 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 27, 2016 2:04 PM Flag

    RBS has plenty of liquidity. At $5 it's a bargain. At $4, buy more. $3? Buy more.

    Don't go crazy. Buy some...a little more if necessary. Be patient. RBS is a big entity. I think it's a better buy here than DB in Germany is right now.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 27, 2016 2:01 PM Flag

    Read essays by Victor Davis Hanson. Conservative, smart academic. But he lives in the Central Valley of California. George will is a sanctimonious, insider Washington elitist. Hanson is a man living amongst the commoners.

    Completely different perspectives. He writes for the National Review just like Will.

  • Reply to

    Alright NLY board...

    by rufus_r_jones_esq Jun 25, 2016 10:46 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 26, 2016 8:43 PM Flag

    NLY is the biggest and best run M REIT. Interest rates are not going up. NLY is perfectly positioned for that. The dividend is rock solid. BV could rise. Dividend not likely going up but stock price could. I just want NLY to stay between $10.50 & $11.

  • Basically back to where it was Monday. If this continues and it breaks back into the teens I'd be concerned the top was put in yesterday. I think QUAD should trade around $18. For a company with a good dividend but no growth, that's about it IMHO.

  • Reply to

    volume is climbing.

    by thirdpartyoperator Jun 9, 2016 4:28 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 23, 2016 4:05 PM Flag

    I thought moving from $14 to $20 after earnings was tremendous. The company might make a dime this year and estimates $1.09 next year. That puts QUAD at 20-22 p/e. Dividend is now under 6%. Sales are flat at best and the company makes FCF by cutting costs. I own RRD too and both are going up up up. Why? Is the economy booming and print magazines and advertising soaring? I don't see that. Fed won't raise rates. Job growth slowing. FedEx says business is slowing too. The transports are droopy. Economy doesn't seem robust to me.
    I just can't see much more upside unless a buyout is in the works...but who and why? The company doesn't have much cash in the bank either.
    If the market corrects or a recession hits this stock will not hold up. It's not Facebook or even AT&T.
    Like I said, I took 10% off the table today. I'll sell 10% blocks into more strength.
    QUAD is not a growth stock and by value stock metrics it looks fully valued to me.
    If I never heard of it before and looked at it today for the first time, I'd probably say I missed the move. I won't be buying it up here.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 23, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    It keeps going up. Absolutely no news since last earnings report. It's almost doubled since then. Honestly don't know why it's up 2-3% per day with nothing going on. Volume seems to be dropping too.
    I've reinvested all my dividends and have a 33% gain in just over 2 years.
    I sold 10% of my position this afternoon. Just feel like booking that profit is a good idea.

64.06+0.04(+0.06%)Oct 25 4:00 PMEDT