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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

warnbeeb 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 18, 2016 3:32 PM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • Reply to

    volume is climbing.

    by thirdpartyoperator Jun 9, 2016 4:28 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 9, 2016 8:03 PM Flag

    It drops.....seems more each of last few mornings.....then climbs back up to he's 52 wk high. Went ex div a week ago $2 cheaper than today.
    Thinks $22 is inevitable. Yield under 6% becomes less appealing.
    This feels like hedgies front running then just pulling the plug all at once. I don't think IRS a good bug here. Glad my entry priced wad $6 lower. Just keep sending me my dividend and trade above $16 and I'm a happy camper.

  • Reply to

    New 52 week high coming this week.

    by thirdpartyoperator Jun 7, 2016 9:06 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 8, 2016 11:29 AM Flag

    It's weird. It drops at the open and then bounces right back and goes to new daily high. Higher highs...higher lows. For a company in a declining industry that has shrinking sales and can only squeak out a profit by cutting costs it sure seems to be defying gravity. I bought it just because I thought the dividend was all they cared about.

    Just holding and watching.

  • Reply to

    Honestly ask yourself....

    by jc18630 Jun 7, 2016 2:47 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 7, 2016 3:01 PM Flag

    I have no position right now. Traded it twice in last couple months for modest gains. Thinking of taking another stab at her. But, not yet. Think it will shimmy down some more. Market is awfully, awfully positive. Too positive for my liking. If VRX can't catch a bid in this environment what's going to happen in a little 200 point down day?

    I think in a few more days in the $20-22 range it might be worth a nibble. Call premiums are pretty decent. Buy a few thousand and sell a comparable # of calls $4-5 higher and you'll probably make some money.

    Long term? I'm thinking VRX is doomed. They'll try selling Bausch & Lomb first. That will throw some dirt under the wheels for a while. But eventually they will liquidate this thing.

  • Reply to

    Currently DOW to Gold ratio is 14

    by warnbeeb Jun 3, 2016 3:34 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 4, 2016 10:08 AM Flag

    Gold moves in huge long cycles. Look at a 10 yr chart of ABX. It's going back to all time highs in the next few years. Not months. Not this year. But within 5 it probably will.

  • In the early 80's it was around 1. That is, the DOW was around 800 and an oz. of gold was too.
    It has been postulated that the ratio will eventually go under 5 and approach 2:1.

    What would the DOW be? Gold?

    In next stock market crash the DOW may return to it's '08-'09 low of around 6600. Yikes...that would be bad....most bad. Gold might be over $3000 however.

    I'm guessing you're eventually going to see gold over $5000/oz and the DOW back to 10,000.

    Just me. It's not the biggest position in my portfolio but man, ABX is getting there. I expect ABX to hit all time highs in the next few years. Think $60/sh.

  • Reply to

    Insider selling

    by augie58 Jun 1, 2016 11:19 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 2, 2016 7:34 PM Flag

    Nah. They were selling at lower prices than today's. They just sell the shares they get as compensation. Regular,,, get shares for $0 and sell at whatever the prevailing price is. I don't think insiders are deserting the ship at all.
    I think the price recovery is all about the notion that the dividend looks stable and coverable by FCF. Increasing sales? Nope? Earnings? Nope. This company doesn't actually earn much money. They just pay a nice dividend that at some point people will stop paying up to get.
    It's highly unlikely QUAD is going to raise this dividend or pay a special one.
    At $20/share it will yield 6%. My guess is that will be pretty much be when buyers will dry up.
    We'll see. I'm not selling.

  • Reply to

    Insider selling

    by augie58 Jun 1, 2016 11:19 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 2, 2016 2:14 PM Flag

    It's also worth noting that these shares being sold were acquired at $0 per share. They also represent a fraction of the shares actually "given" to them.
    What's really interesting to me was that no insiders bought shares in the open market when they were worth less than 1/2 what they are now.
    They only wanted shares if they were given to them.

  • Reply to

    Insider selling

    by augie58 Jun 1, 2016 11:19 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 2, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    To be sure this has been a terrific recovery off the sub $10 lows. I have owned QUAD for years and have DRIPPED my dividends from the beginning. I have always regarded QUAD more as an income play vs. a capital gain growth investment. I am enjoying very nice of both right now.
    That being said, even as the stock has recovered the sales and earnings of QUAD remain tepid if not shrinking. This is not a particularly dynamic industry....printing. I subscribe to Sports Illustrated (for years) and note it is a QUAD printing customer. The magazine is slowly shrinking and eventually I expect it to go the way of Newsweek and Time....barely noticeable, if not out of business. Printing magazines is drying up. Print advertising/mailings is also going away. Commercial printing and financial documents (an RRD strength) still has a future.
    I also own RRD and feel that QUAD and RRD are likely to survive as the biggest players in this industry. RRD is breaking up into 3 different companies and I expect that to be successful. I'm waiting until the break up to see which parts to hold and which to sell...if any.
    QUAD is a cash flow/dividend company that is closely held and controlled by the Q Family. I'm not sure they are incentivized to do much with the company except to keep the $$$ flowing. I doubt it is a takeover target because of the family....but maybe the family will have a crises or change in dynamics that might create an opening. Not holding my breath there.
    Today is an ex-dividend day so we will get our .30 back in a month or so. For me, if QUAD would hang onto this $18-20 range and keep that dividend coming I can live with this. Better than a bond. If interest rates rise I see this dividend being attractive.

  • Reply to

    Bayer's Bid for Monsanto

    by h8mongrel May 20, 2016 1:41 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb May 30, 2016 7:05 PM Flag

    It won't happen but to me MOS fits the bill for a Berkshire Hathaway type deal. Boring industry. Market that will always be there. Conservative balance sheet. JMHO.

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