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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

warnbeeb 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2016 12:59 PM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Cramer talks NLY today

    by chuck_960 May 3, 2016 12:53 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb May 10, 2016 4:00 PM Flag

    He said sell when it was at $9. Don't buy when it was in the $8s. Don't buy in the $9s. Don't buy when it passed $10. Don't buy when it got to $10.25.
    Now it's around $11 and he says he likes it. Nice.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb May 16, 2016 9:37 PM Flag

    I've owned NLY for 4 yrs. bought shares in 3 separate buys, only 1 at lower than current price and I've reinvested all my dividends. I'm up 25%. I always have looked at NLY as a bond like investment. Income with a potential cap gain kicker. If it will just keep up this current dividend the price can stay between $10.50 and $11 forever as far ad I'm concerned.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by jmyduce Jul 11, 2016 10:05 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 11, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    I've been a long term holder ....at least 5 yrs....and own shares at higher prices than this....but most are at lower prices. I have DRIPPED my dividends from the beginning and hold a lot of shares. NLY is the biggest position in my portfolio...around 8-9%. I am quite happy and do not expect to sell any shares unless it careens up and exceeds 12% of my portfolio. Eventually, I hope to take my dividends in retirement. NLY is in a retirement account.
    To answer your question, I doubt NLY is a short target. It might be traded long/short by big boys who hold bigger positions and want to hedge around their position, but because the dividend is so big I doubt it attracts pure short sellers.....for very long.
    NLY is very, very well followed. There are no secrets with this company. They are as good at this mortgage REIT business as anyone.
    NLY has been brilliant in how they've managed their portfolio. They're positioned or slow, incremental interest rate hikes that do not appear to be on the horizon. There will not be any big interest rate hikes this year. And regardless of who wins the presidency, it's unlikely there will be in the next 2-3.
    I don't expect an NY dividend hike, but I believe hike is more likely than any more cuts.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb May 10, 2016 10:58 AM Flag

    Please, if you've owned QUAD as long as I have you would have said the same thing. Am I happy it hasn't done it this time? Sure. But, realistically, since QUAD is not growing sales and earnings and is basically a dividend play don't be surprised if it doesn't swoon again and retest the $13-14 range agai in the next 6 mos.
    I'm not selling. I'm pretty sure I own more shares than most people on this board.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb May 11, 2016 10:12 AM Flag

    More like a Hold now. Stock is up 150% from it's 52 week low. I'd love people to buy it, but I think the biggest part of the move is over.
    Magazine print business is getting tougher and tougher.
    This stock/company should maintain the dividend from here. The question is how much are people willing to pay to get it.
    I think a 7% yield is terrific at this price. Don't know if it will get to $20 stock yielding 6%. Might.

  • Reply to

    This is way overdone.

    by bootcop1 Jun 27, 2016 9:17 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 27, 2016 2:04 PM Flag

    RBS has plenty of liquidity. At $5 it's a bargain. At $4, buy more. $3? Buy more.

    Don't go crazy. Buy some...a little more if necessary. Be patient. RBS is a big entity. I think it's a better buy here than DB in Germany is right now.

  • Reply to

    Alright NLY board...

    by rufus_r_jones_esq Jun 25, 2016 10:46 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 26, 2016 8:43 PM Flag

    NLY is the biggest and best run M REIT. Interest rates are not going up. NLY is perfectly positioned for that. The dividend is rock solid. BV could rise. Dividend not likely going up but stock price could. I just want NLY to stay between $10.50 & $11.

  • In the early 80's it was around 1. That is, the DOW was around 800 and an oz. of gold was too.
    It has been postulated that the ratio will eventually go under 5 and approach 2:1.

    What would the DOW be? Gold?

    In next stock market crash the DOW may return to it's '08-'09 low of around 6600. Yikes...that would be bad....most bad. Gold might be over $3000 however.

    I'm guessing you're eventually going to see gold over $5000/oz and the DOW back to 10,000.

    Just me. It's not the biggest position in my portfolio but man, ABX is getting there. I expect ABX to hit all time highs in the next few years. Think $60/sh.

  • Reply to

    Narrowing spreads?

    by farfbits Jun 29, 2016 3:01 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 1, 2016 2:30 PM Flag

    I doubt distributions change for at least a year. If and when they do change I'd be thinking they will go down before they go up.

    Best guess is we stay at .30/qtr for the foreseeable future.

  • warnbeeb by warnbeeb Apr 29, 2016 3:15 PM Flag

    This is not short covering. ABX and gold stocks in general have been going up for months. The shorts covered long ago. I still hear analysts and advisors saying...no, no, no I don't recommend gold. No one is seriously recommending mining shares. Some are, but the consensus is stay away. Not investable. Warren Buffet et al. never own or buy it.
    But it's going up. It backs and fills, but it's going up and up and I suspect it will for some time yet. Methinks today is the beginning of an even bigger move. I think something bad is on the horizon. Something just doesn't feel right. Gold is a safe harbor. Gold shares are still technically way underowned and long term the charts say they are undervalued.

    When everyone says buy gold. Gotta own gold. Buy the miners. Gotta own the miners. That's when it will stop.

    Me? I'm just holding my ABX.

  • Reply to

    Long lines are back

    by elixir_india May 16, 2016 12:52 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb May 18, 2016 11:03 AM Flag

    Boston, Boylston St, Back Bay......no lines.....just walk right up to the counter.

  • Reply to

    Whatever today's gain ends up being

    by warnbeeb May 4, 2016 11:02 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb May 10, 2016 10:30 AM Flag

    If you're referring to me, I'm hardly a troll. I'm a long term shareholder who has been seeing his principal investment whittled away over the years. I have dripped my dividends, however, from day 1 and over this past week I am finally back in the black. Nevertheless, QUAD is a closely held company that IMHO is operated to throw off dividend income to the family that owns the majority of voting shares. QUAD doesn't make money. It's only concern is maintaining FCF so it can continue to pay the dividend.
    No one should own QUAD for capital gains, however anybody who bought it in he last 12 mos. is sitting on a nice one. Kudos.
    Me? 'm going to continue to hold my shares. Keep collecting the div. Reinvest.

  • Reply to

    Insider selling

    by augie58 Jun 1, 2016 11:19 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 2, 2016 2:14 PM Flag

    It's also worth noting that these shares being sold were acquired at $0 per share. They also represent a fraction of the shares actually "given" to them.
    What's really interesting to me was that no insiders bought shares in the open market when they were worth less than 1/2 what they are now.
    They only wanted shares if they were given to them.

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 27, 2016 2:01 PM Flag

    Read essays by Victor Davis Hanson. Conservative, smart academic. But he lives in the Central Valley of California. George will is a sanctimonious, insider Washington elitist. Hanson is a man living amongst the commoners.

    Completely different perspectives. He writes for the National Review just like Will.

    http://victorhanson.com/wordpress/

  • Reply to

    volume is climbing.

    by thirdpartyoperator Jun 9, 2016 4:28 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 9, 2016 8:03 PM Flag

    It drops.....seems more each of last few mornings.....then climbs back up to he's 52 wk high. Went ex div a week ago $2 cheaper than today.
    Thinks $22 is inevitable. Yield under 6% becomes less appealing.
    This feels like hedgies front running then just pulling the plug all at once. I don't think IRS a good bug here. Glad my entry priced wad $6 lower. Just keep sending me my dividend and trade above $16 and I'm a happy camper.

  • Reply to

    This has been a huge rebound for Quad

    by thirdpartyoperator Jul 10, 2016 11:00 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 11, 2016 9:51 AM Flag

    If they meet expectations the stock is over valued. They gotta beat. They gotta raise guidance to justify this price and get to $30.
    I would love to see them show RISING SALES for the first time in several quarters.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by jmyduce Jul 11, 2016 10:05 AM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jul 13, 2016 10:00 AM Flag

    I don't know why you would get a thumbs down either. It was a fair question.

    I don't get worked up on the day to day swings in NLY. You will notice that around ex- dividend time it jumps around some. The last year or so, the stock price bounces right back after the ex-date. I think that's a very good sign.

    I consider NLY a very long term, strong hold. Much better than a high yielding bond fund.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    CMG NON GMO LABEL WILL OUTPLAY E-COLI SETBACK

    by jtilagasca May 18, 2016 1:10 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb May 18, 2016 3:27 PM Flag

    You're kidding right? Chipotle fresh? Good for you? Really?

    CMG is doomed with the "I've never tried them yet and I can see why I should since they've had several e-coli outbreaks" crowd.

    Some people will just not bother with Chipotle. I cannot see how they can ever attract them. How?
    "Our food won't make you sick"?

  • Reply to

    Honestly ask yourself....

    by jc18630 Jun 7, 2016 2:47 PM
    warnbeeb warnbeeb Jun 7, 2016 3:01 PM Flag

    I have no position right now. Traded it twice in last couple months for modest gains. Thinking of taking another stab at her. But, not yet. Think it will shimmy down some more. Market is awfully, awfully positive. Too positive for my liking. If VRX can't catch a bid in this environment what's going to happen in a little 200 point down day?

    I think in a few more days in the $20-22 range it might be worth a nibble. Call premiums are pretty decent. Buy a few thousand and sell a comparable # of calls $4-5 higher and you'll probably make some money.

    Long term? I'm thinking VRX is doomed. They'll try selling Bausch & Lomb first. That will throw some dirt under the wheels for a while. But eventually they will liquidate this thing.

  • QUAD will give 80% back tomorrow. Up $2+ today. Down about the same tomorrow. That's the pattern.

    I've been a long time owner of the stock and just collect and DRIP the dividends. It would be nice if the stock could hold onto one of these one day spikes.

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