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Advanced Emissions Solutions, Inc. Message Board

wbart21 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 14, 2016 11:40 AM Member since: May 7, 1999
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  • yet there's been absolutely no liquidity,no volume.clearly there are a lack of sellers @ 150mm MC, but where's the sponsorship/bidding?sure hope Heath and team are planning to present at conferences again and that IR takes steps to court analyst coverage. crickets i guess until they can monetize a facility or two or the strategic process culminates in a licensing or liquidity deal of some kind. remember that guidance has been for strategic conclusion b4 eoy.

  • Reply to

    MM are playing games

    by bruiser572000 Jul 9, 2016 11:52 AM
    wbart21 wbart21 Jul 11, 2016 9:58 AM Flag

    exactly correct! apparently price will not be marked up by institutional volume until they close RC facilities and if that doesn't occur soon then I'm with md that notable markup may not come until Q 3 numbers in the fall. did the company give any color on status of strategic review @ AM? secondly, MD or gora, you guys have conservative 2016 full year earnings projections factoring in the debt payoff? i know it's somewhat difficult given uncertainty of the effect and scope of the cost containment measures expected to kick in this Q and next, but .75-$1 doable with current installed base+downsized cost structure or am I aggressive?
    just a comment.i've been in touch with company and IR requesting guidance on plan to increase visibility with investors now that we are uplisted and financials current. they likely do not have a lot of IB work to promise ,but i'd think some of our old analysts might consider reinitiations with the better visibility now. there is also the wild card that the ongoing strategic process will result in some very stock favorable action b4 EOY .will advise

  • Reply to

    Treatment-naive AML

    by carvedolol Jun 29, 2016 11:05 PM
    wbart21 wbart21 Jul 7, 2016 5:59 PM Flag

    not sure about "disastrous tanking" if 1271's not successful in the P1/P2. Very difficult indication and early stage testing.Failure is anticipated,no current pricing in of 1271 success.imo. At current market cap RIV+PFE+ cash are clearly the main value drivers .
    Agree completely that any success with 1271 in naives would cause immediate and massive mark up while a relatively muted reaction for failure next year or whenever the 1271 P1/P2 reads out occur.
    Nice to have two big horses, NEA + BVF in our stable.

  • wbart21 wbart21 Jul 7, 2016 1:31 PM Flag

    Surprised to have opportunity to add in $6s/$7s($150mm MC) on this news.Guess the institutions will wait for CCS,which I understand given the past. Need to SHOW the Street closures. I like our chances with this new team and refined sales approach together with ADES's lean current cost structure.
    You folks still think we get a business update on EC front etc this month?

  • wbart21 wbart21 Jul 7, 2016 12:58 AM Flag

    reading the 8-k it indicates the company paid off the 9.9mm credit agree. balance on June 30. A Q2 occurence. yea! They are set up nicely for Q3 & Q4 as the cost cutting really kicks in and assuming some RC and EC successes.

  • wbart21 wbart21 Jul 7, 2016 12:10 AM Flag

    This is much better than expected news.
    I can tell you that I was not the only SH concerned about a possible raise to pay the debt.The IR firm told me that they had been receiving a lot of questions about that possibility recently with the debt deadline approaching and the extension option foreclosed by their inability to close a new RC plant by June 30. So they used the lump sum and cash from operations and paid off the entire credit facility as well as a token prepayment penalty for doing so a couple days early. I love the message that sends to investors about new management team! H-ll yes.
    SH settlement fully covered by insurance.Many SHs thought ADES was taking a 5-10mm balance sheet hit on this.
    NASDAQ uplisting immediate! Guidance had been nondescript , 'sometime in 2016'.
    They obviously have market makers interested and all teed up.
    The deck is clear and balance sheet cleaned up.Get an RC closure and decent business update soon and we'll really be off to the races. It may take a quarter or two of documented financial improvement upon all metrics, but once that occurs the Street will begin focusing its attention upon us again, especially as they model out the next 5 years. Great job Heath,now let's get a significant ramp of RC monetizations.

  • on businesses and debt repayment(Friday deadline). Next week is the court approval of the SH lawsuit settlement and likely concurrent guidance from ADA wrt structure and manner of payment, specifically extent of D&O coverage for all/portion of settlement. We will probably also hear very soon about nasdaq up listing given HS's comments @ AM. a lot of updates imminent.

  • Reply to

    Business Update?

    by md841 Jun 15, 2016 7:20 AM
    wbart21 wbart21 Jun 28, 2016 11:11 AM Flag

    you are probably correct about loan not being a big issue. i suspect we either get a plant closure , partial repayment, remaining balance extended 90 days or no plant cloure by 6/30 and they somehow pay off the debt or refinance through another source.
    as i read agree. it looks like they have to repay debt by july 8 if no addt'l plant closure by 6/30. we can speculate as to what lang means, but ada and wilmington/mfp likely already have path forward set and we'll know in coming days/week. i'd like a closure and nondilutive resolution of the debt ;)

  • Reply to

    Business Update?

    by md841 Jun 15, 2016 7:20 AM
    wbart21 wbart21 Jun 27, 2016 6:18 PM Flag

    doubtful that applies as it did not lead to 'one additional' but rather was a swap(albeit with more throughput)of existing lease--jmho
    "on or prior to the Original Maturity Date, CCS shall have leased or sold at least one additional refined coal facility to a third party that is not an Affiliate of the Loan Parties that is not leased or sold as of the Closing Date; "

  • Reply to

    Business Update?

    by md841 Jun 15, 2016 7:20 AM
    wbart21 wbart21 Jun 27, 2016 3:54 PM Flag

    plant closure by 6/30 gives ada 'right' to extend. they lose that right if they fail to secure an rc plant closure.
    unsure if any addt'l penalty(default?)
    sec 2.12(v) of oct 2015 credit agree 8-k. p.29

  • Reply to

    Business Update?

    by md841 Jun 15, 2016 7:20 AM
    wbart21 wbart21 Jun 27, 2016 3:23 PM Flag

    do not have time @ moment to verify,but as part of the credit extension didn't the lender require an RC plant closure by 6/30?
    If correct, what's the benefit or risk of failing to do so?? I will look at 8-k language when able , but this c/b an explanation as to why no business update yet.

  • Reply to

    AM.

    by wbart21 Jun 22, 2016 5:04 PM
    wbart21 wbart21 Jun 23, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    am I correct that the original 15 (didnt they pay down 3 last q?) is down to about 11mm currently? if so, that would seem manageable (full pay or partial w/ small bal extension) via this Q's cash and without external funding. thanks

  • Reply to

    AM.

    by wbart21 Jun 22, 2016 5:04 PM
    wbart21 wbart21 Jun 23, 2016 9:53 AM Flag

    they also have the 7mm lump coming in this Q correct?!

  • Reply to

    AM.

    by wbart21 Jun 22, 2016 5:04 PM
    wbart21 wbart21 Jun 23, 2016 9:50 AM Flag

    hmmm kinda forgot about the timing on the debt payment. thanks for that reminder. you get any sense as to the route they were pursuing to pay that? stagnant stock price with imminent lawsuit resolution w/ associated expenses and the July 8 debt deadline has me really expecting a Raise here soon. what's loan amt w/ accumulated interest? not sure if i want them pushing that forward again given the onerous interest rate they were hit with last time...maybe better to do a small placement. gheez i wonder if they even have an open Shelf. In past they would always seek SH approval b4 Raise so fact that that was not included in the proxy may mean they're not going that route and can actually service and repay the debt in some way from cash flows?? guess we'll know very soon. thanks Gorak.

  • wbart21 by wbart21 Jun 22, 2016 5:04 PM Flag

    Strategic eval process involves ,in large part, the monetization in some form of the international EC opportunities(China & Europe highlighted), ADES has E&O ins coverage (wrt investor litigation); NASDAQ up listing docs all filed in mid April & ADES expects relisting in very near future based upon recent contacts by NASDAQ.

  • wbart21 wbart21 Jun 22, 2016 12:14 PM Flag

    to your point , it certainly seems as though stock is waiting on/for something: nasdaq uplisting,financing or something strategic?

  • wbart21 wbart21 Jun 21, 2016 4:51 PM Flag

    fyi, never in my multi-decade history of investing have I seen a daily total trade volume of 2.
    While you lament the lack of buying interest, perhaps we should be praising the absence of any sellers ;)
    Come on ADES, give the long suffering SHs a break and get us the heck off the bulletin board.

  • Reply to

    Shelf Offering

    by carvedolol Jun 16, 2016 5:40 PM
    wbart21 wbart21 Jun 21, 2016 4:47 PM Flag

    Big discount clearly! It appears company didn't want to drop below a year's worth of cash so they took the deal w/ the discount mandated by the institutions and placed the shares.
    I'm staying long , added below $6 a few days ago and will do so again if the opportunity presents itself. AML data(RIV aside!) was very promising and if data points are maintained in the current P2 expect a huge deal,imo. Look @ CPXX value albeit with later data. I think the market is completely missing the boat with its ignorance of GLYC. Awaiting the 13F and what I'd expect to be an impressive group of institutions given the AML data we just saw and Riv's P3 status w/ PFE. Any way you cut it, this is a cheap stock with tremendous upside potential. Biotech has been hammered recently, just getting a deal done is a plus.

  • wbart21 wbart21 Jun 21, 2016 4:22 PM Flag

    Please,please someone @ AM get more specific guidance for uplisting than... sometime in 2016!
    Safe travels for all those in attendance and TY for sharing insights.

  • wbart21 wbart21 Jun 16, 2016 10:45 AM Flag

    cfo has confirmed they will be submitting a plan. VCs have stopped selling. BVF has held tight to their shares as well. folks shorting into day trading spikes may get burned at any time

ADES
6.43-0.08(-1.23%)Jul 26 4:00 PMEDT