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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

wgrsh 7015 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 16, 2016 1:33 PM Member since: May 11, 2005
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  • Parker mentioned that it would be cheaper to merge with AMR while it was in BK. Why? Are there accounting benefits to merge with a company while in BK? Did he think that two standalone airlines would have a more difficult time merging (approvals, etc)?

  • I was just hoping for a 10% reduction in fuel costs which would be around 30 cents/gal. Now I'm hearing talk of 15% ... that's 45 cents times 4,300 million gals/yr, or a potential $1.9 billion savings. Divide that by the shares outstanding to get the possible bump in eps.

    But even a 10% savings is a potential $1.3 billion to margins.

  • I was at a banquet where a video was produced, but couldn't be downloaded and had to be played off the website. As it started to be played, the video started breaking up and then shutdown. I got up and walked over to the "computer guy" running it. He had a non-Nokia cell phone wired to his laptop downloading and playing the video. Obviously, his setup couldn't handle it. I took out my 920; turned on internet sharing, and said here is the broadcast name and password ... use it as a hotspot. He did and the video streamed without any lost data ... saved the presentation. Thumbs up Nokia.

  • Reply to

    Opinions on the late day motley fool article?

    by kchristiank Mar 12, 2014 9:58 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 12, 2014 10:56 PM Flag

    Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha, etc are all just message boards with spell check ... cheap source of news for yahoo. And you ought to consider the timing of a "negative" article right after the distributions and new highs.

    The article was mostly generalizations. Sure you can wonder about LUV, but Parker has dealt with LUV before. Same with JBLU, or DAL ... but all three of those have to worry about AAL too. And the article talked about the rise in AAL's stock as if it was the only airline stock that rallied. The whole industry continues to hit new highs. And I can add that it is not out of line in valuations relative to other airlines ... the article did not discuss that.

    I guess the author missed out on the airline industry's rise in market caps (his area of expertise ... oooops)

  • Reply to

    Technical picture

    by airlineprofessor Mar 28, 2014 7:12 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 28, 2014 7:52 PM Flag

    I agree prof ... it'll be interesting to see where, when, etc. it reverses. The legacies, and others airlines for that matter, have pulled back and certainly didn't show any signs of reversing the trend ... it'll change when is changes.

    There are many sectors where investors have sold stocks recently that have gone up considerably. Airlines are one of them. Just have to let it run its course ... it could change in a few days or a few weeks. Airlines still have valuations on their side though.

  • The 920 is everything that is advertised ... and since I'm just scratcing the surface it is probably much more so. It was my first Win8 experience and after few hours of playing with the phone and catching on to the logic of the OS ... I was thrilled. (I think the Win8 ecosystem is going to catch on, although I can understand that it may be a slow process ... but momentum it will build.)

    Comments about at&t salesperson ... I started the talking, and went over the various different phones I was considering (mentioning I had Apple experience), but added that since I was going to Win8 with other devices, I probably should be considering a Win8 phone (a nod of agreement from the salesperson.) I was quickly walked over to the Win8 phones and after a short time looking over them I finally asked, "What do you think about the 920?" The salesperson's eyes lit up and said, "I love the phone." He picked up the phone and spent some time going over all the features, flipping through different parts of the phones and talking about what can be done. He made a sale.

    The couple of hours of hacking my way around the phone after I got home was not without moments of buyer's remorse, mainly from wondering about the logic of Win8, but once I had that "aaaah" moment ... as I said ... "I'm thrilled". And I have to say, msft is on to something, and nok is too.

    (I don't know if it is a default setting or not, but the screen sensitivity was set to "high" seemingly out of the box. (high ... for that use with gloves) It should probably be defaulted to "normal". (It caused some minor concern during my initial use, until I changed the setting.)

  • Reply to

    Micron proved guilty on YouTube

    by sonofaramboid Oct 20, 2011 3:38 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Oct 20, 2011 10:56 PM Flag

    Well, that's just it. The YouTube news video just talked about a period of time when there was collusion that in essence lessened RMBS' RDRAM high price disadvantage by colluding to keep competing products high. So how did that hurt RMBS? There were no collusion convictions for the period of time when prices dropped, just before.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Nov 19, 2013 11:41 PM Flag

    Actually the electoral system could be a model if there is ever a combination of nations, federation of democracies, etc in the way distant future. The popular vote was extremely lopsided in California in 2000 ... I believe Bush won popular vote of the other 49 combined. One can look at it as not allowing one large populous "state" (nation) to control elections over many smaller states/nations of different regions. Anyway, our founding fathers were pretty insightful.

  • Reply to

    Technical picture

    by airlineprofessor Mar 28, 2014 7:12 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 28, 2014 7:33 PM Flag

    bears ... you've mention oil up a number of times. I only have gulf coast jet fuel and that is in the low-mid $2.80s vs its high of $3.09 in Feb. Do you have other information? I know NY jet fuel is higher than gulf coast, but normally proportional in highs and lows.

  • Reply to

    AAL is an investment NOT a day trade !

    by melodias23 Jun 25, 2014 3:57 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Jun 25, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    I use to take comfort in the fact that the airlines could make good money with a slow growing economy of 2%. And here Q1 GDP was negative and the airlines made good money ... got to love it. Wait 'til the US and then world economies start humming ... the story is still intact.

  • AAL uses 4.3 billion gallons of jet fuel. The last time gasoline was this low, heating oil was at $2.70. Many are calling for another 10% coming off oil. Below $2.70 there is a lot of air ... who knows where it will go. 2015 could very well have jet fuel off 20 cents ... if not more than what 2015 eps estimates are using. That is an extra $860 million in cost savings to the bottom-line. AAL already is guiding for flat non-fuel CASM in 2015. Things look good.

    I don't know when the market will move the stock, but this is hugely material.

  • Using the prospectus from the merger, AAL indicated they expected to earn $4.3 billion in 2015 ... that was with fuel high and some synergies.

    If fuel stays at this level for all of 2015, it will be about $1.30/gal lower (times) 4.4 billion gallons per year is $5.7 billion to the bottom line. Add that to $4.3 billion and you get $10 billion in pre-tax earnings. Divided by 735 million shares and you get $13.60 eps for 2015 (times) 8.5 pre-tax PE, and you get a price target of ... $115/share. What do you think ... an easy double? Anyway, makes current price targets look easy.

  • Reply to

    Greed vs. Envy vs. Hope

    by mysats Dec 15, 2013 2:09 AM
    wgrsh wgrsh Dec 15, 2013 11:15 AM Flag

    "why would debt holders care?"

    I agree that from the standpoint of being made whole, the conversion price doesn't matter to the creditors, but the lower the price per share, the more shares they get and those shares would have "more" potential. How they would manipulate the conversion price is beyond me (if they can), but if I were a creditor, I would prefer a lower share price to get more shares.

    Old LCC shareholders don't have a horse in this conversion race, but have to put up with gyrations, if any, for the time being. Their position will only be impacted temporarily, and not permanently as the position of the creditors and aamrq holders will be by the level of the conversion price.

    What happens to share price during the conversion periods is everything to the AAMRQ holders.

    This stock has potential ... so ... we'll see what happens.

  • Reply to

    Banks Day

    by ochsnerbier Apr 29, 2015 12:25 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Apr 30, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    You know what they say about stocks, or sectors, that show relative strength in a down market ... bodes well for the future ... you want to be in them when the market turns.

  • wgrsh wgrsh Oct 18, 2012 1:52 PM Flag

    Health insurance proposals from both sides will cover all that you mention was important from planned parenthood ... so those worries you point out are moot.

  • Reply to

    Iditos Rambuts are clueless about the AT case

    by jrkkek Oct 20, 2011 7:06 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Oct 20, 2011 10:43 PM Flag

    I agree, in the action of the collusion in question, MU wasn't "convicted" in so many words. What I can't understand, and I haven't been following this all that close, but it seems the collusion in question actually raised prices making Rambus's RDRAM more price competitive since RDRAM was still the highest price. When MU suggested not colluding anymore in the early 2000s, sure ... prices dropped but not due to collusion, and there were no "cartel" convictions from that time period relating to RMBS.

    Sure, there were comments in emails how the drop in prices would hurt RMBS, but that was due to market forces and not collusion. There were no convictions during the period of the price drop for collusion, only the period before. So I don't get it ...

  • Reply to

    Here's a simple fact folks, we're scr*wed

    by hawcreek10 Feb 11, 2012 4:10 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Feb 12, 2012 4:47 PM Flag

    <a global show of American power and democracy.>

    I don't know if you can call the above the "reason", but it was how we were going to go about responding to the general problem of terrorism.

    Iraq was made an example of ... a show of American power. We were going to go into the middle east militarily somewhere. Saddam was jumping up and down saying, "pick me, pick me". Almost immediately Egypt and Libya exposed their secret nuclear programs and Libya denounced terrorism ... it was apparent that countries that had terrorist ties didn't want to be next.

    The democracy in Iraq that we'd try to set up would be an example and a road map for other middle east countries. The Arab spring is happening. Thug leaders may allow terrorists, but a democracy wouldn't, or at least that is the hope. Democracies in Islamic countries are a long shot, but something that had to be tried in the belief that the people in general are good.

    Bush's popularity poll won't matter as much as how the middle east turns out as history looks back on this time. The middle east is being given a choice. Hopefully, they'll use it wisely. Next time that choice may not be available.

  • Reply to

    Windows 8 Windows 8 One Time

    by nokboard Mar 29, 2013 9:02 PM
    wgrsh wgrsh Mar 29, 2013 10:44 PM Flag

    I've had a win8 desktop since January. The computer screams ... really fast. I don't have a touchscreen, but in a short while, I was able to zip around win8 with a mouse just as fast as I could do it on anything. It's slick. I also have a touchpad for it, but just find the mouse very easy.

    When I first got it, I was unsure how to navigate, but in a short time it became second nature. I'd probably have trouble going back. Get everything loaded and transferred, and give it a week or so. I love it ... really don't understand the negative press about it ... it's slick.

    When Haswell comes out ... I'm getting a win8 laptop and then go to a tablet (might wait on LTE from Intel for the tablet.) I think the slow uptake with all this is that INTC just wasn't ready ... but they are coming on strong.

  • Here are Obama’s thoughts on the debt limit in 2006, when he voted against increasing the ceiling:

    "The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. … Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here. Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better."

  • wgrsh wgrsh Jul 11, 2013 10:14 AM Flag

    I see a joint venture in devices more than I can see any kind of an outright purchase by MSFT. (Out of one joint venture and into another.)

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