Beating lowered expectations is indeed a cheap win. On the other hand, over-reacting to short-term disappointments -- as investors usually do -- is no way to make money. It's worth considering that after missing overly optimistic delivery targets quarter after quarter, Tesla is still delivering something close to 80,000 cars this year. That's a record-breaking number for a brand new car company. So recognize the risks, sure. But take Musk's fanciful projections out of the picture and you have a company that is killing it in the real world of building cars that people want.
TSLA looks poised for a spike, surging higher in the face of all bad news and analyst downgrades. Consider that EPS (actually LPS) projections are down 50% in the past month. A beat on the bottom line next month just got a lot easier. With a third of all shares short right now, watch out for the squeeze.
Personally, I think the Master Plan is a distraction, but if it makes a strong case for the competitive edge that Solar City gives Tesla in the long term, that would also be a big blow to the short thesis.