The market is huge....much bigger for the new drug plus being one of a kind (pan-genotype) it should have no competition in the marketplace and command more and new revenue not being earned by harvoni for geno 1.
I think they are worth more independent than acquired but if they recieve an offer in writing, it needs to be addressed and communicated to shareholders. As a public company management must do what is in the best interests of shareholders at the time or face litigation and or a proxy war.
Added at 8.64...These MM bank strategies and mb posters don't seem to work very well for them. There is just too much info available. Now they SELL millions of shares at low price points that they used to be able to scare investors out of their shares at!
A little reality is always a good thing for sure! I think we'll beat them on efficacy but they will likely fight back on price to remain viable in the market. That is the downside that I see coming regarding HCV. CFD looks very promising though and between the two I think we do well.
Financially they only need a small market share much less than 50%. In reality though, JnJ wants to dominate,,,who wouldn't? It is not the 12 that is the problem...it is the 12 times 7. No one wants to be on a pill regimen for a period of time that long. If they can help most patients with just 6 weeks and the really difficult in just 8 weeks....... they will dominate the market.
Logic....Thanks for the summary...this is good! I wonder what the odds are that we hear of 100% cure rates at 6 or 8 weeks from Jannsen? Because they are moving forward with the exact same dosage's that were used for phase 2a for 2b, it seems a foregone conclusion that results were good and will be good going forward! If we get the opportunity to come to market quickly having fast-track status.....also good. If we take 50% of HCV business (because almost anyone would choose a 6 or 8 week regimen over 12 weeks of pill taking)... that would be about a Billion and a half dollars (or more) of income per year for ACHN. If we take 50% of CFD business because it is oral as opposed to injections and IV's, that would be about a Billion and a half dollars of business per year for ACHN. Together these 4 very likely things (if they happen) will be very good for the price per share of ACHN!
The price of Gilead’s hepatitis C drugs — $1,000 a pill or more — and their popularity have strained the budgets of various insurers, state Medicaid programs and prison systems, leading them to impose restrictions on which patients can be treated. The VA has had some funding issues when it comes to paying for hepatitis C drugs and that weighed down a little bit on Gilead Sciences at the end of the year. There probably was some warehousing that came through in the first quarter, but you're still talking about a $16 billion-per-year business for this company. You're still talking about a company that's generating out $4 billion in profit per quarter..........
"complete and sustained" does sound promising but I agree that looking closer, alxn's balance sheet isn't in any condition to go after achn, Still a heck of a lot of value being created here for someone. I don't see achn becoming a commercial stand alone entity selling pharmaceuticals. They would be a welcomed research group to any larger business. I could see someone doing a cash and stock deal here...fine by me if the numbers are right.
As described in the abstract, oral dosing of ACH-4471 resulted in rapid, nearly complete and sustained inhibition of complement alternative pathway activity.
•ACH-4471 was well tolerated at the single dose levels examined to date with no drug-related serious adverse events, treatment emergent adverse events leading to study discontinuation, or study drug-related grade 3/4 TEAEs reported.
Achn's factor d compliment inhibitor is going up against ALXN's Soliris, a drug with net sales of 2.6 Billion last year for the treatment of PNH and AHUS. Soliris is a bi-weekly IV and it's other competitor from Omeros requires injections so the oral availability is a big thing. Alexion could be interested in achn to expand it's market share in factor d and collect royalties from JnJ for HCV.
" Insurance companies have been "warehousing" HCV patients, delaying their treatment until prices have fallen. There is still a HUGE pool of HCV patients awaiting treatment. Study out yesterday said HCV is now responsible for MORE deaths than any other infectious disease in US. So the "theory" that GILD is going to "run out" of HCV patients is patently false. We probably have treated well under 10% of the individuals who will need treatment, to date. And that's ONLY in the US. In the world, maybe 1-3%??? Scratching the surface so far. Right now, you need to have moderate to severe fibrosis (at a minimum) to get treatment "approved" by most insurers, and therefore there are a LOT of patients being "denied" treatment (warehoused) until their disease progresses further. They are basically being told "we'll treat you, but you need to get sicker first". So we are still fairly EARLY in the treatment "ballgame", like the bottom of the first inning. 24,000 died in 2014 in the US alone due to Hepatitis C, higher than any other year. The death rates are trending UP for Hep C, so to think we have "cured" all these people and "solved the Hep C epidemic" is to be GROSSLY uninformed."
It's a lock that they had 100% at 6 weeks for treatment naïve, lower viral load, non cirrhotic genotype 1. Otherwise they would have thrown out the 6 week doublet as they did the 4. Conceding they get all of that with the doublet at 6 weeks....anything is possible with the triplet at 8. It's probable that they do well here as they are enrolling 400 subjects and that shows confidence. They are not cherry picking and they are not playing with the dosages..... and there will not be a phase 3, they will be applying for the nda following this huge trial in 7-17. JMO I guess it's the short term plays most people are wondering about.
Hey Steven I just meant it could be and should be rising to the phase II level of development.....it won't hit full value until either a buyout takes place or it begins to develop an earnings history.