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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

wilderguide 207 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 23, 2016 1:02 PM Member since: Jan 13, 2011
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  • wilderguide by wilderguide Apr 26, 2016 12:20 PM Flag

    $$$$
    Nothing more, nothing less...
    Trading around 6.5X normal daily volume...
    They can put the price wherever they want...
    Anyone else think we're seeing a bit of stealth short covering today?

  • wilderguide wilderguide Apr 26, 2016 8:38 PM Flag

    $$$$
    The upcoming maturity of the 2012 convertibles should be addressed by MMM in the coming months, as the earliest published company action date for conversion of those notes is Aug 15 of this year. Given the ongoing high short interest in EXEL, the continued SP stranglehold made apparent in the wake of METEOR success, and the potential for a large upward shift in near-term revenue potential - it wouldn't surprise me to hear MMM field this issue in the coming months as Cabometyx sales are realized. If an immediate clinical uptake in RCC becomes apparent, a 25% conversion of those notes might actually be a "best use" of the remaining $60M payment from Ipsen pending European approval of Cabo in RCC.
    That would be a piece of confidence-inspiring management, though I expect it's still a bit premature to be considered anything but wishful thinking. JMO

  • wilderguide wilderguide Apr 26, 2016 8:48 PM Flag

    $$$$
    ....continued...
    In a nutshell, I don't expect to hear of any serious buyout offers till a debt management plan is revealed and acted upon.

  • $$$$
    OK. So here we are...And, we can agree upon a few things - those being that toxic financing has a stranglehold on shareholder value, and perhaps also that - given the competitive strength of METEOR results - EXEL fundamentals are more derisked than ever before. Anyone disagree with these statements?
    Good. Now, according to the terms of the 2012 offering and CV structuring "Under certain conditions, Exelixis can redeem some or all of those notes on or before August 15, 2016. No need to go into the details here - suffice it to say it been done endlessly on this MB and elsewhere...
    Doesn't MMM have a commitment to share his Death Spiral exit plan with shareholders? After 8/15/2016, can't we insist that he share said plan? In creating the 2012 structured financing, did Exelixis completely "sign away" it's fiduciary responsibility to shareholders? Commentary invited...
    Anyone see light at the end of this tunnel? How's this work?

  • Reply to

    Escaping the grasp of Death Spiral financing

    by wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 11:45 AM
    wilderguide wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 4:14 PM Flag

    $$$$
    "I'll take issue with the death spiral nature of the converts."
    Putting aside the financial semantics of the EXEL convertible arrangement for the moment, the only point I'd like to suggest is that any financing that is borne of desperation...that creates a disconnect in perceptions of valuation...that threatens to scare off long-term shareholders with false worry of manipulation...that smacks of ongoing deceit... Is wrongful.
    All these scenarios can be considered toxic, and should be of grave concern to CEO, upper management, CFO, staff, and BOD. Perceptions of criminal collusion permeate Wall Street as it is, and honest investors should not feel continually threatened by illusions of failure in the face of continued successes. At its simplest, it's woefully misguided misrepresentation - and I would expect management to share my concerns. If they are not concerned, they have no business being in any publicly traded business endeavor - regardless of how many cancer treatments they are developing. This whole manipulative theme has become increasingly cavalier, and I don't see any management concern at all. I would expect some measure of reassurance from this management and BOD team in the very near future, rather than they simply continue to issue themselves another bazillion free shares, options, and pay raises to support the illusion of success - all the while turning a blind eye and deaf ear to shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Escaping the grasp of Death Spiral financing

    by wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 11:45 AM
    wilderguide wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 4:53 PM Flag

    $$$$
    "Are you familiar with NAVB and the shareholder revolt..."
    I'm not, but would enjoy a recap if you have time. If the issues of convertible debt with EXEL go unaddressed beyond August, it may become necessary to consider action outside the norm. I'm not much of a ringleader, but I do have tenacity in my corner. Like Daddy always said:
    "Walk softly, carry an armored tank division, and be prepared to use it."

  • wilderguide by wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 5:41 PM Flag

    $$$$
    "Better Buy: Exelixis, Inc. vs. Roche" MF 4/27/16
    This time Renauer recommends Roche with its $211B valuation over EXEL...
    Once again comparing the Pacific Ocean to the backyard puddle created each time it rains...
    "Day after day...alone on a hill...
    The man with the ice cream grin is keeping perfectly still.
    Nobody ever liked him, they know he's just a fool...
    Nobody ever noticed, but the Fool on the hill...
    Sees the sun going down and the eyes in his head see the world spinning 'round..."
    What planet is this guy from?

  • wilderguide wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 6:07 PM Flag

    $$$$
    "....a plethora of verbal gymnastics..."
    Well put...
    Now - you, too - have done your part to perpetuate the pandemonium of punctilious pontification...
    No one is immune. No one.

  • Reply to

    Escaping the grasp of Death Spiral financing

    by wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 11:45 AM
    wilderguide wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 9:35 PM Flag

    $$$$
    "Are you familiar with NAVB and the share holder revolt that just took place?" I Googled the NAVB revolt - very interesting that a BOD placement was made on behalf of shareholders. Come the August 2016 date of action I mentioned earlier - if no measure of management concern is apparent wrt debt restructuring - I vote we revisit this discussion with the intent of carrying a message to the EXEL BOD suggesting shareholder value has been ignored far too long, and a mindful aggregate of informed EXEL investors would enjoy the opportunity to input with management to suggest suitable remediation in-line with optimizing company goals non-exclusive of shareholder expectations. It's a fair request. If they are making money, so should investors. Easy peazy...

  • Reply to

    Escaping the grasp of Death Spiral financing

    by wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 11:45 AM
    wilderguide wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 10:05 PM Flag

    $$$$
    "I think you should..."
    And I think you should hire asianshorts as your own personal crankclanker. You dudes could share a bunk, bob for knobs, & spend some quality time; the rest of us could share some sanity. Peace...out.

  • Reply to

    Escaping the grasp of Death Spiral financing

    by wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 11:45 AM
    wilderguide wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 10:31 PM Flag

    $$$$
    "Finally starting to come around or seeing all sorts of other money making companies and now looking for your deserves?"
    Not at all. Times change. Progress has been made. Debt retirement strategies are on the near horizon. The success of METEOR and the pending adoption of Cabo into mainstream clinician use are game-changing components of a strategy many on this MB have considered for quite some time. Glad to see it all. Don't want these opportunities lost to lack of attention, and certainly don't want to overstay my welcome...as you appear to be so prone. It's all about timing, and - right now - EXEL is entering prime time. No other way to look at it...

  • Reply to

    The Fool on the hill is back

    by wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 5:41 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Apr 28, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    $$$$
    The Fool on the Hill
    Lennon-McCartney circa 1967
    Early Beatles...

  • Reply to

    The Fool on the hill is back

    by wilderguide Apr 27, 2016 5:41 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Apr 28, 2016 12:13 PM Flag

    $$$$
    "Magical Mystery Tour"...
    Amazing to consider the transitions that we witnessed as the Beatles grew through early Rock/ Baroque/ Pop...found LSD and became yet another band...
    Found the Maharishi and became yet another band...
    I cried when John's life was taken. I cried when George died...
    Probly gonna cry when MMM sells out EXEL for a song...
    Such is life in America. You sing a happy tune. Your heroes die.
    You drop a little acid. You change. Wall Street takes all your money.
    You go to the grave wondering #$%$ it was really all about.
    Now that's the real Magical Mystery Tour...

  • $$$$
    From the 4/28/16 Q1 conference...
    "Marc de Garidel added: “We are fully committed, upon regulatory approval, to preparing the upcoming commercial launches of cabozantinib in advanced renal cell carcinoma in Europe..."
    Any guesstimates on Euro approval? My hat's in ring for 7/1/16...

  • Reply to

    Ipsen Q1 reporting commentary

    by wilderguide Apr 28, 2016 4:34 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Apr 28, 2016 5:25 PM Flag

    $$$$
    "Their rules are a number of days after acceptance..."
    I think we're both in the ballpark. The ruling on an accelerated assessment is a little more aggressive than the standard schedule, and Cabo in RCC has already appeared on a past CHMP agenda. With the USFDA approval, I figure the skids are greased and we should get the initial positive opinion from CHMP sometime soon - possibly before ASCO. The timeline beyond a positive opinion is normally 55-60 days. As the FDA approval came in nearly 2 months early, I'm thinking the EC decision just might be sooner than the published timeline as well - especially if Ipsen weighs in with strength of lobby.

  • Reply to

    Ipsen Q1 reporting commentary

    by wilderguide Apr 28, 2016 4:34 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Apr 28, 2016 6:48 PM Flag

    $$$$
    "Is Opdivo being sold in Europe?"
    Absolutely.

  • $$$$
    Neoplasia Jan 2016 Qiao, et al.... Check out the list of co-authors. I found this looking for current info on enzalutamide due to the compelling trade gaining momentum over at MDVN. I haven't found the post yet, but I think WildBif had this hypothesis pegged before these study results were published. My hat is off to you, Bif...
    "...MET inhibition was only effective in blocking cancer phenotypes in cells with MET overexpression. Using multiple AR(+) CRPC in vitro and in vivo models, we showed that combined cabozantinib and enzalutamide (AR antagonist) treatment was more efficacious than either inhibitor alone. These data provide a compelling rationale to combine AR and MET inhibition in CRPC and may explain the negative results of the phase III cabozantinib study in CRPC. Similarly, the expression of MET in AR(-) disease, whether due to AR inhibition or loss of AR signaling, suggests potential utility for MET inhibition in select patients with AR therapy resistance and in AR(-) prostate cancer."

  • wilderguide by wilderguide Apr 29, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    $$$$
    BCRT April 26,2016...Rayson, et al. Still more news regarding Cabo's kid brother. Results of an NCIC/ Canadian collaboration. Might pay to be mindful of these results while digesting ASCO abstract 1093 regarding Cabo effect on circulating immune cells in TNBC. Despite failure to meet PEP, pretty fair CBR...
    "There was no correlation between MET positivity and response nor between response and PTEN, EGFR, p53, or MET expression in CTCs. Although CCTG IND 197 did not meet its primary endpoint, the observation of a clinical benefit rate of 46 % in this cTNBC population suggests that foretinib may have clinical activity as a single, non-cytotoxic agent in TNBC."

  • wilderguide by wilderguide Apr 29, 2016 7:07 PM Flag

    $$$$
    To my knowledge, most Cabo trials to date have been designed predicated upon the patient being taken off of therapy in disease progression or worsening toxicity. The 4/25/16 protocol update suggests the potential for benefit despite progression. This seems an important change - in fact, downright bold. Just figured to share...
    "If the disease appears to get worse, but the study doctor and those who monitor the safety of this study think you are still receiving benefit from the study drug, you may be able to continue to receive the drug. This will be discussed with you." Any thoughts?

  • Reply to

    Disease progression on Cabo

    by wilderguide Apr 29, 2016 7:07 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Apr 29, 2016 7:11 PM Flag

    $$$$
    Guilty of omission...
    The update excerpted is from the P2 in pheochromocytoma...

EXEL
8.69+0.01(+0.12%)1:04 PMEDT