"Wilder's bald head cream is the best Jerry, the best!"
Viva ter lingua, señor...
Now yer talking my language....
I've got salves, lotions, potions, notions, tinctures, essence, presence, and no sense...
In fact, I kin give y'all a quote on those lead-lined walls...
"You're not Sybil, are you?"
I nearly choked on a peach pit when I read this...
Hardly. Just a country boy with more time than good sense. Been harvesting peaches this past week, in fact - made 4 peach-blueberry pies from scratch today - nothing more than 15 minutes off the limb. My wife cans - also makes wine, brandy, and salsa. You haven't lived till you've tasted good, fresh peach mango salsa.
The rest of my day is basic ranch chores that seldom take long unless I'm behind - so the confusor is not far. I play more than most... If that's any kind of an answer...
" I don't see EXEL's partnerships with Ipsen and Roche as a barrier to any other company interested in acquiring EXEL and adding two drugs to their portfolio..."
In other words, still an asset play...
Ernie, given what we know and will know in the near future (I'm asking for your best guess here)...
You see Cobi as a BTD candidate anytime soon? If so, any thoughts to share on SP impact?
"Can you explain why and how they are able to bypass P2 and move on to P3?"
I view it as a measure of confidence in the safety/ efficacy profile they have witnessed to date. Skipping P2 may lend a competitive edge in CRC, especially important given the momentum of PD-1 & competition across the spectrum of indications. If the data is good enough (and it appears to be) an application for BTD has likely already been filed. Yet another catalyst to consider...
If you recall, Roche went from a P1b trial of V/C to P3 -skipping P2. This is normally viewed with great favor by an impatient marketplace. Designated breakthrough status would be icing on the cake...
OK so this is nothing in the ways of a binary event..."
Depends a lot on where you think treatment direction goes from here. The confidence inspired by skipping a P2 efficacy trial should be viewed as a positive by the market, but it's overall relevance to the treatment algorithm in the face of evolving competition will always enable skeptics. It's a valuation dilemma borne of factoring unknowns that only time can elucidate. I think we'll know more after the IP later today. The semantic innuendo sometimes cannot mask the excitement, nor hide the doubtful wisdom of moving forward. GL
“I went down to the river,
I set down on the bank.
I tried to think but couldn't,
So I jumped in and sank.”
― Langston Hughes
"...you might believe that the run from $5.60 to $6.60 is attributable to this event and its already "baked in." "
I don't believe in coincidence when it comes to the upward volition of this stock. In addition to the initiation of the Cotezo CRC trial, an earlier "tell" is the enrollment #'s upgrading of the C/A solid tumors trial from 90-ish to over 150. Such a move is obviously based upon early positivity, and I'm actually expecting additional pivotal trials of C/A in combination in additional indications as data matures and the competitive climate climate reads out. Good luck to everyone going into today's investor presentation. I'm not expecting any real surprises today, but a Far Eastern partnering appears imminent.
"The previous CFO, Karbe made some pretty awful deals."
It's really difficult to judge that financial wisdom in hindsight. The scientific consensus at the time held a lot of momentum support for success in the COMET trials. The top line KOLs in the prostate space all weighed in with positivity. All the top line data thru P2 was peer-reviewed, intact, and in-line with scientific direction at that time. If EXEL is ultimately a win-over success story, no one will ever credibly argue that that success wasn't without its share of challenges.
Ernie, this management team has shown no compunctions in issuing stock - it costs them the expertise to authorize it, and not much more. If shareholder value was a concern, they'd have established a history of prior concern. I see a future stock plus cash redemption, and current shareholders be damned in the process. This is this essence of my argument for open management display of concern wrt the disposition of the converts. The convertible overhang is optimal as a short hedge, and I don't see much over $7/ share unless that short shelter is threatened by early redemption. I think the recent rise in SI bears this out - the convert holders want control till 2019. JMO
"Have a nice weekend dill weeds."
If yer gonna insult, I'd like to see you more properly align with the recent commitment to insult surgically. In addition, you won't win any medals - nor qualify for any prizes - with such a puny insult. If you can't insult IAW the appropriately agreed-upon criteria...
Keep it in your pants, where puny insults belong...
From the businessWire PR announcing the a Senior Converts dated 8/9/12:
"The notes will bear interest at a rate equal to 4.25% per year, payable semiannually in arrears on February 15 and August 15 of each year, beginning on February 15, 2013. The notes will mature on August 15, 2019.
The notes will be convertible by the holders beginning on May 15, 2019, or earlier upon the occurrence of certain events. The notes will be convertible at an initial conversion rate of 188.2353 shares per $1,000 principal amount of notes, equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $5.31 per share. The initial conversion price represents a premium of approximately 25% to the public offering price of Exelixis’ shares in the common stock offering. The conversion rate will be subject to adjustment upon certain events, but will not be adjusted for accrued and unpaid interest. Upon conversion, the notes may be settled, at Exelixis' election, in cash, shares of Exelixis common stock, or a combination of cash and shares of Exelixis common stock. Exelixis may redeem some or all of the notes for cash under certain circumstances on or after August 15,
2016." The "certain circumstances" in reference are conditions of stock price at closing. As I read it, beginning 8/15 of this year, if those conditions are met, the co can force the conversion of all or part of those notes. Am I missing something?
Not commonplace, but I don't consider the investor update to be an unusual planned event - given recent circumstances. The best "tell" going into ASCO is the P3 Atezo/Cobi trial being sponsored by Roche in CRC. Undoubtedly this topic will be explored,along with future Cabo development. Celestial recruiting remains a wildcard, and hopefully we get an HCC update as well. Lots of potential going in - I wouldn't want to be short here unless I were heavily hedged.
I should have been more specific in my earlier post. I would think early retirement of the convertible notes is what I would address. I believe the share price must close above $6.91 for at least 20 of 30 consecutive trading days, and the earliest date of company-compelled redemption is August 2016. In an earlier post, I mentioned that I felt a "best use" of the $60M milestone from Ipsen for Euro approval might be to retire 20-25% of those notes! should RCC revenues support such a move. Pulling these warrants off the table would make the short hedge less pronounced, save money, and make a statement regarding short control.
"...we'll see what Monday brings."
EXEL saw months of good news with little return on SP, and the consensus became "That news must have been baked in." The stock struggled to hang onto a $1B market cap. Now, at a 50% premium to that struggle, what good news do you suppose is "baked in."??
I think all the best science ASCO can offer is baked in at these levels, and I'm expecting an AH / premarket style sell-off that'll print in the $7s...with a post-ASCO return to the low $6s unless we see cash from a Japanese partner or some form of debt restructuring plan to commence in Q3. I think for now, everything's being accounted for, including Euro approval.
"...do you get a medal?"
Wayyyyy better'n that, Conrad...!!!
The big prize is an overnight trip deep in the Bible Belt to go catfish noodling with world-class catfish noodler Fred Neck. Toothless, tow-headed, tubercular, tamborine-playing Fred will wine you with Coors beer, dine you with barbequed hog jowl, and might even be cajoled into giving a lesson or two in the proper stump-breaking of mules, horses, and various sundry barnyard critters. If your trip is planned for a weekend, a little snake-handling at the local Presbyterian church might be included.
Retail value of this package is pert near $99.95...
Alls ya goota do is groom up nice and insult real proper-like...
....and I guess I'd be the "...idiotic #$%$ hiding behind my little gun" that made the "dismissive, condescending politically oriented post" regarding eastern white liberals hiding amongst Hillary's skirts awaiting dual orchiectomy to enrich Hillary's trophy-testicle earring collection.
Nothing particularly pro-partisan in all that... If you, Dr Vin, weren't such a self-enamored academic snob whose head is permanently stuck where the sun don't shine - you'd recognize partisan humor, and different between humor and politics.
Besides, you got me all wrong, Doc - us idiot #$%$s don't carry "little guns..."
No sense packin' if yer not packin' big-bore knockdown speed-loading wallopalooza...
Geez...I love that kinda talk... Spare a chaw o' tobacky, Doc? Know where a feller might sell some fish bait? Think "the Donald" might have more appeal iffn he rode a bull?
I got one I'd rent cheap...
Ipsen's market cap is less than $5B. The deal struck for Euro rights to Cabo was a good one, but if it proved to be an impediment, Glaxo could buy Ipsen as well. In my experience, BP doesn't overspend time sifting thru the rat turds to find the Rice Crispies - they just go buy a new box of cereal.
You are a heck of a watchdog, Snowflake...
I'm glad you are on the side of truth, justice, and the American Way...
I'd hate to have you as an adversary...
Probly hafta get all DeNiro on yer butt, just to keep you in line...
Duck, take a few minutes to read (or reread) this article from Fierce Biotech - it is nearly a year old, but given current events makes me consider that Glaxo may be a "most-likely" best-fit suitor for EXEL: "GlaxoSmithKline takes another big swing at cancer drug R&D"
My reasoning is threefold:
1) Glaxo already owns 3% of Cabo, giving them a slight - but noteworthy - bidding advantage
2) Much of the legwork in MET/VEGFR2 clinical research has been conducted by Glaxo oncology, and I suspect they have some inside research advantages in knowledge gained, application potentials, and combination possibilities.
3) According to this short interview with Axel Hoos, Glaxo has not exited oncology...but is seeking a new entry point more inclusive of immuno-oncology and targeted applications. The timeline for this change-up is 2-3 years, and we are just entering the second year - as suggested by the date of the interview.