I think everyone needs to take a deep breath. First of all, we don't have all the information as to why the deal was done or the full strategic vision. No one saw the Amgen deal coming either. Who knows what is next. Second, think about where we were before Dan took over and where we are now. I think we are in a much better position. Because none of us know the full story and where management wants to take us and how we will get there, some of us get upset when reality does not meet "our expectations". We have no idea how this will all play out or how all the pieces fit together. But, I believe there is a plan to maximize shareholder value. It may differ from how any one of us may have gone about it. But, I will defer to those with actual experience in the industry. We appear to be much better off than we were three years ago. I also understand we have raised a lot of capital to get here. But, everyone on this board has limited information and most have less experience running a company, especially a small cap clinical biotech with this type of technology. Everyone was praising Dan for Amgen. Now you are trashing him for this capital raise without any understanding of the motivation or objective. Let's see how this plays out. After all, there is no other choice other than to sell your shares which I know none of you plan on doing. I wish us all good luck. I for one think our management team is smart and has demonstrated strong business acumen during their tenure. I feel much more confident then I did three years ago and think this baby bio is going places.
All of these banks have a relationship with Advaxis and have buy ratings on the company. If they think highly of the company's prospects, than getting their clients into the stock on favorable terms benefits the their clients. and the banks themselves. If some of their clients are also short the stock, this gets them out of their positions on a more favorable basis than otherwise possible which also is helpful to the banks. For all I know, the banks may be holding some of these shares for their own account. I have no idea. In turn, when the real run up begins, maybe the banks help to actively promote the stock to their other retail clients. These are just my rambling thoughts.
If I am interpreting the PR correctly, I think the banks want to get shares to their clients before any major run up in the share price. I assume, the banks will support Advaxis in return in some way.
This is Advaxis's vaccine. See PR from 2006 listed below.
3/7/2006 12:06:51 PM
NORTH BRUNSWICK, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 7, 2006--Advaxis Inc. (OTCBB: ADXS) announced that it has received the approval of the Ministry of Health of Mexico and, subject to the approval of the ethical committee of Hadassah Hospital, the approval of the Ministry of Health of Israel to commence in those countries a Phase I/II trial study of Lovaxin C, a Listeria-based vaccine, directed towards the treatment of cervical cancer. These approvals follow a recently announced approval by the Serbian Agency for Drugs and Medicinal Devices to conduct a study at the Institute for Oncology and Radiology in Belgrade.
Abstracts are due August 8th. Since MedImmune already knows the data that will be presented, there would be know reason to wait until November to do a deal. If the data is good, they could do it right now. Only time will tell.
As I said in a previous topic from a couple of days ago, what if Advaxis sold off another pre-clinical construct like triple negative breast cancer and received a similar deal? The company has aprox. 15 of these constructs in the wings. I understand that the market size and potential revenue will differ for each. But, when Dan was on the conference call, he stated the company is fortunate because it ahs a "wealth of riches" with so many options to pursue. They did the deal with Amgen because management wanted to be laser focused on the P3 trial and other related items. This would support the idea of doing deals for other pre-clinical constructs that will take years to develop, additional costs and focus away from their current candidates in clinical trials. This way, not only do they monetize some of these constructs, they can also place a value on those that remain in the portfolio. Let's assume that each candidate is worth only $300MM. That would put the company at $4.5B for just the existing pre-clinical if you assume the platform works across the board (granted, a big assumption). But, you get the idea. And that does not even consider, the drugs in clinical trials or the potential for infectious diseases.
From the article you referenced:
"The immunotherapy company’s most prominent partner now is AstraZeneca’s ($AZN) MedImmune business. Last year, Inovio partnered with MedImmune to gain rights to INO-3112, another HPV immunotherapy for HPV types 16 and 18 that is in clinical testing for cervical as well head and neck cancers.
The MedImmune deal included a $27.5 million upfront as well as up to $700 million in development and commercial milestones. The pharma assumed all development costs and agreed to pay up to a double-digit tiered royalty on INO-3112 sales."
What would a deal for Advaxis's AXAL program be worth? Given the SPA, entering P3 and two Fast Track Designations, I think it has to be north of $1B with at least $100MM up front.
is if Advaxis could complete another pre-clinical deal for something like triple negative breast cancer or any other pre-clinical construct. While I realize each one of these will have a different market size, you set a value on one and you can infer a value for the others. But, none of these constructs are being valued at all in the analyst price targets. I think Advaxis has approximately 15 of them. That said, the value of each subsequent deal should go up relative to the market size and predicted efficacy because due to the strength of Advaxis's bargaining position.
Only that there is a two-year window for warrant holders. So, if it takes five year to generate significant value, which I do not think will be the case, then the warrant holders will not materially benefit from their investment.
Like you, I would love to see a deal get done to further validate the platform, de-risk our investment take further dilution off the table. That said, given the news that has come out as of late, I do believe the value of any deal has increased significantly. I also think this has been DOC's goal the whole time. Management knows what they have and wants that value to be recognized. I feel the ducks are being lined up with the I's dotted and T's crossed for some type of deal to get done. Will it be everything we want or expect? Who knows, maybe even better. But, given what has taken place recently, I feel better about the delays.
the SPA in hand along with the equivalent of FTD in Europe. With both of these items in place, the pathway to commercialization in the US and Europe has been accelerated to some degree with increased validation of the platform. I would expect that the value of any potential deal is now worth more. As always, time will tell.
It is possible right now. They have the data. Everything is conjecture. It will happen when it happens. None of us know anything beyond what is public knowledge.
This is my biggest takeaway so far.