could be wrong, but guessing there is some selling ahead of Jazz call on JZP-110 -
End of day, if they get good data on SO, FLML becomes a path for someone to launch in 2020 as opposed to 2026 - that's worth more than today's price. But requires patience.
As an aside, and haven't looked at this for awhile, I believe once approved could launch anytime, but subject to treble damages if Jazz can prove infringement - FLML can't take that risk, but maybe a larger company could.
Also not sure about the REMS timeline, nor have they provided much info on this.
I think your figures are reasonable. You're assuming things hold up at current levels on profitability - I don't think there's much way to know that without more input from mgt.
On BV, what difference does it make if we're at a 60% discount to book or a 70% discount to book? Either they turn things around or they don't. If they do, this will do well from here.
you're trying to win the master of understatement aware aren't you?
Mylan should have sold. Perrigo should have sold. They both thought their businesses were worth more than they are.
But shareholders wanted Mylan to sell. Management didn't want to lose their cushy spots. But they did #$%$ away alot of their own shareholder value as well - no matter, they'll make it back in comp in the next year or so.
Wish there was a way for the activists here to force down the management comp, which is a total, total joke.
This is not that bad a business, but management is completely self serving.
John, help us out!! Put the hammer on these aholes...
I don't see a long term sentiment option for 'hopeless', but that's where I'm at.
On company itself, my guess is they more or less hit 1Q number, lower full year to $4.50. Next year probably closer to low $5s. Stock is still cheap, but management...well, I already expressed my views there. Geez...
Thanks for details - just out of curiosity, how did you get the numbers on this?
Wouldn't MFC be ahead of most debt holders as a secured lender and aren't there a fair amount of assets here, implying a pretty good recovery?
I suppose one other possibility is there was a payment in kind from IAT to investors, and the investors sold some of the shares, accounting for the above average volume last quarter - I don't know enough about IATs structure to know if this is a possibility.
yeah, good point - tough to read much into the published change - it looks like all his major positions, including Mercer, Nam Tai, and Berkshire, just to name a few, were substantially reduced, as were overall assets -
also, in the final three months of 2015, 8.3 millions shares total of MFC traded open market in total - so even if Kellogg were 100% of the share sales, which obviously he wasn't, he couldn't have unloaded 13 million shares. My guess is he did not sell any, just moved to other accounts as you suggest.
Not uncommon if there is a standing 100 share GTC order for the high frequency guys or some other desk to fill 2 shares in order to get it off the screen as a standing bid - happens to me now and again -
Good points Ethison - do you have any sense of when they would exhaust those tax losses - my sense was they had many years in reserve
One of the real head scratchers here was Scott selling shares for 'tax losses'. At the least, that was about as tone deaf a move as I've ever seen. How much did he save himself? 20K? I haven't done the math, but talk about penny-wise, pound-foolish. I mean, how many millions is he paid? Very surprised someone didn't try to talk (slap?) some sense into him.
In fact, there I'm sorry to say RAS has a long history of doing things which may or may not make very small marginal economic sense but look terrible - this is a lousy way to operate a business that depends on a low cost of capital.
Anyway, hope you're right and they knock it out of the park going fwd. I still have exposure, although more on the pref/senior side.
Good for you Davis, back out swinging. Like to see it.
I've followed this name for years now, and have to say management is not dumb -that's too simplistic. They've made some mistakes though. I don't think the post 2008 mistakes are fatal, and hopefully that's right. Time will tell.
That said, I've been reducing exposure here for a long time as I've given up trying to call the outcome. I do think at least some parts of the capital structure are oversold, which makes sense since they aren't especially liquid. At these prices I'm a buyer, but in small size as a part of a diversified portfolio, and my emphasis is away from the common. The common is more of an option, and probably a pretty attractive one at this point - there are certainly a lot of worse options.
I had forgotten those prior comments - the actual whole blood numbers are actually a little weaker than in the Apple study, but still much better than the Abbot numbers - I think the #2 machine made by Alere has a significant problem with false positives -
There is a Fred Apple paper searchable on net published 2014 which reviews in some detail the existing devices - it highlights 4 devices, of which Meritas is one - it's critical of the Alere device
TRIB only needs about 10% of the this market to get a nice sales and earnings lift -
I think what you're trying to say there is that these results, especially when testing with plasma, are quite good indeed - they are better than the current market leader, Abbott's IStat, and may actually be comparable to Abbott's lab test, which takes substantially longer to perform. This is a very good result.
Now if they can just complete a half decent M&A deal, we're off to the races.
have either of you reviewed the civic complaint. Would be interested to discuss, as well as other recent developments. We should all chat offline at some pt. I'm on investor village also, xds68. Feel free to PM.
More generally, there is so much noise right now on this name, I think it's impossible to figure out what's tax selling, what's fed, what's dividend cut, etc. Hopefully dust settles a little by January.
big companies are already there - ABT is the leader. If they get the approval it should be their biggest seller by a long shot.
I've spent some time comparing RAS today to RAS pre-crisis - they're more diversified today, less leveraged - but they did have the structural advantage then of having essentially no recourse debt - that said, I think the debt is sufficiently laddered and out year assuming the US economy continues to putter along - if the US economy goes into recession, it's a different ball game and not sure how the numbers look
Ethison, I think part of the impetus to keep lending is the origination fees, which people have gotten used to - I back out a portion of these in trying to assess fair value -
I'm not sure where the best place is to invest in the cap structure right now. The equity is the most liquid and perhaps has the most upside on a bounce, but some of the pref and debt offer pretty interesting risk/reward.
Sell off on volume - hopefully this is tail end of capitulation
Bloom Lake sold for 10 mil and assumption of remediation liability, fwiw - not perfect comp for wabush, but there is an option there -
Still waiting to them to announce banking license approved - this will happen eventually, but taking a long time...
I still think late 2016 Kellogg moves for liquidation, or perhaps tenders and liquidates himself if profitability hasn't improved -