More importantly . P was .002 in those 13 sites .. That is highly stat significant .. I.e placebo did much much better
It is small errors that are hard to find .. But not very very big ones like this one
They are telling you that treated in those 13 sites were quite a bit worse off that placebo .. So , either the drugs were switched . Then can confirm it by Looking at PK .. Or drug not only does not work but it is much worse than placebo .. A drug that has been around for a while for this indication
.002 means if you repeat test 500 times .. 499 times you get same answer
.006 means if you repeat test 166 times, 165 times you get same answer
The odds results are correct is about 1 in 82,000
Lol .. That was funny
I would cover now .. What are odds that 2/3 of sites shows results one way with .006 p and 1/3 show the other way with .002 p .. And no mistake happened
Once news hits that there was a mistake it will go up .. Not sure by how much
They were in default so they had no choice but to do a secondary
1-,no error and their tech does not work. ..
So shares are worthless
2- an error occurred , but FDA wants a new p3 .. In this car company will be sold maybe around $2 tic$4 a share
3- an error occurred like the 13 centers and FDA does not require a new p3 .. In this case shares will go to $15
My theory is that mathematically , it is nearly impossible for 13 site to show placebo outperformed drug
So there is an error
The bet is that FDA will agree with their error and they can file nda .. Stock goes to $15
A small bet
rough terms .. But they had no choice ..
Best case scenario is they find out it was a mistake and FDA will accept the forested data .. In that case if stick was worth $20 before, or $200M, it would be worth $15 now
If they need to run another p3, they need to raise cash again or partner up
Worst case is tech has problems and In that case shareholder will get nothing long term
Almost a mathematical impossibility p of less than 0.01 and switched !!!
Really sad for Evok and its holders and they are so close to BK or being very rich .. They should have raised soe cash at $5 a share .. Now they may do that at $2 .. 5 million shares
Drug and placebo were switched .. You just can't have 13 sites show placebo outperform a proven drug with high statistical significance .. Almost impossible
But , FDA wood want them to repeat .. That means time and need for $20M .. So, it is a tough call with a company having little cash. And debt due
Even if they say those site data was switched .. FDA may still want them to restudy
Traded or twice float ... So, a new base is probably formed around $2 plus minus 10%
Next catalyst is to see what pipeline / asset quality they will acquire
Given cash crunch in biotech world , they should not have difficulty to acquire on stock and cash deal
i saw message of not recruiting and given thru only had 59 sites , I thought emrollment was not completed .. But, you are right, study is ongoing and its results will come soon ..
If everyone thinks this way , it is not going to work
My guess is they are going to buy some assets .. Hopefully good assets and with shares
This scenario will be Dnai issuing shares to buy a private pharma in need of cash .. Dnai has in house experts and scientists , so most likely they will buy assets .. RM is when you let go of all your staff and are only a shell with cash
They have $120M net cash after expense which is a very large sum .. They shooud issue 10 to 15M shares to buy high quality assets in mid to late stage (we own 2/3 of conpany and private company 1/3) .. They have in house experts and plenty of cash to get assets to finish line ..
Cash is king now in biotech land and these guys can drive good bargains if they play smart
Buy a private pharma with a good pipeline and low on cash (and there are plenty) ... A good phase 3 asset and two good phase 2 assets .. For 10M shares or 1/3 of company
Company will be valued at least at $250M with 40M shares or $6 or higher
Thanks .. Just
Listens to it .. All I can say is Alex has got respect from all analysts and cfo .. This is important if he has respect from all employees too .. Numbers speak for themselves .. So no need to rehash .. Except that this should en trading at P/E 15
Adjusting for one for Internet expense (2017 interest is $700,000 per year ) , 2017 earnings should come at $2.5M and market cap should be $37.5M .. 27 M shares .. So $1.37 !!!
And I expect their number to improve