Albireo hired a high profile name Ron Cooper in sept 2015 to bring cash into this company .. After Ferring pharma backed out of deal with Albireo, the original investors were not willing to pay much cash to sustain he company which is Already $5M in debt
So Ron was hired to facilitate ipo which they could not do, instead he sold 1/3 for Biod cash of ..
We are better off to Vote NO
I have read a lot about their drug, which is anASBT inhibitor
There are papers that shows redirecting bile to colon is carcinogen .. It has shown in rats model that 70% got colon cancer with ASBT inhibitors versus none .. I am not sure if FDA will ever approve that for constipation and might be the reason getting pharma backed out of licensing deal .. Even though. On surface was not drug was that it was not drug related
As for PFIC, it is a much smaller market than 3000 patient in USA .. It is about 40to 80 birth in USA and heavily heriditary Amish community .. If A4250gets approved , so will lum001 .. Two drug .. The equivalent to this drug is not PEBD, but rather a partial bypass surgery .. Evidence shows it works for first year but effect goes away afterwards
Some upfront cash .. But majority will be based on reaching sales target and some royalty.
So, I don't think you can get a good feel about the value of B12 as it is dependent on sales targets
Market .. They say a a total of 12M people are on B12 injections unusable and EU
Sweden has been the only country that 20% have switched to high dose vitamin b12
So, it may be a hard market to crack ..
Are the nasal spray .. It is doing about $40M sales .. I would guess most people prefer taking a tablet this sniffing a powder as most are used to taking pills .. I would venture sales of B12 sold by a decent company with sales force should be 4 to 5 times more than sniffing B12 .. So, peak annual sales of about $200M ... 20% would go to Emis .. Or $40M royalty ... $20M expense .. Givens $20M or about 15 cents Eps
There will be some upfront payment from international to offset debt and some incremental royalty there too
I am guessing USA market based on this pricing and assuming every other day is $5B a year .. A strong company can get 20% of market in 5 years .. So.this can be pretty big, if they give it to company that can sell
I think I saw it on the web, lists $175 for 30 pills .. Seems pretty steep ... Annual dose is about $2,000 .. Injection costs $200 a year ... So, 5M people on shots .. That's about $1B sales for shorts .. For pills .. $10B. A year ???
4 million shares per quarter ..
But nite there is a finishing return for the large shareholder .. Per my example, adding 15M shares each year takes the large shareholder ownership from 86M out of 130M or 66% to 156M out of 200M or 75% !!!
So, his ownership of company goes from 66% to 75% in 5 years
Am very new here .. So most likely wrong in above calculations .. But 200M shares OS by 2020 should be conservative ?
Cash from B12 deals should alleviate this
Main thin is their tech works !! Per validation from Novo
No one selling here !!
60M loan, 13% interest .. $8M interest .. Conversion to stock at 50 cents .. About 15M shares a year
2015 130M shares
2020 .. About 200M shares
Assumes little cash into company till 2020
Cash from NOV drug should cover expenses
Peak royalty from Novo at 5% rate .. $150M .. Give peak earnings of $100M or 50 cents based on 200M OS
So, seems over $5 on NOVO alone
Is at 12.5 months to 13 months .. Control, historically is at 9 months , suggesting zoptrex is at 15 months
If you look at initial papers on AN152, the superiority of zoptrex to Dox is clear
Combined the above and odds of success is better than 50%
10 m shares OS and say another 5M dilution for 15M OS
If zoptrex is good, it will get a billion $ valuation min or $70 a share
Adjusted for 50% odds of success, shokr trade at $35 before readout
Anyone knows for pill, what would be equivalent price .. For shots , a doctors visit , I think is $30 a shot ??