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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

AE_Savant 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2014 8:31 PM Member since: Jan 14, 2000
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  • ae_savant ae_savant Aug 26, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    Agree. And hi to you blair.

  • Reply to

    Slick not buying? Why?

    by thewisejman Aug 26, 2014 3:29 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 26, 2014 8:30 PM Flag

    Agree. I'm always been long PSEC but from a trading perspective, the slate has been wiped clean. Today was what I call an 'encumbered' trading day. If you bought today you also should have sold. Tomorrow is an open market day and a test of who has more confidence - longs or shorts.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on $10.38 low of the day................

    by xx369 Aug 26, 2014 7:14 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 26, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    Yes, I understand that happened and the 10.50 mark as well as 10.56 (NAV) serve as support. We are at 10.56 now.

    Short positions sold off today in anticipation of the x-div date (tomorrow) and tomorrow may well draw in more buyers after the price is adjusted - to 10.45, below the 10.50 line.

    Tomorrow is a new day for shorts who don't have to worry about the 11 cent xdiv monkey. And, the PPS will open below 10.50.

    It will be a new day unencumbered by the looming xdiv and it will start below technical support. It will be interesting to see if it draws buyers or if more longs fold.

  • Reply to

    Bought more mcc

    by frigator Aug 26, 2014 3:55 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 26, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    I think it's good also. That is a good price for it and given the disappointment and drama with both FSC and PSEC, finding alternative BDCs trading at discount is prudent.

  • 1. NAV is at 10.56
    2. X-div tomorrow at 11 cent cost to short shares
    3. Bargain shares available to buyers with x-div adjustment

    Look for shorts to close positions as trading ends today.

  • ae_savant ae_savant Aug 25, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    I agree and this is all good as it provides some basis for being optimistic going forward.

    The negative news though is not just earnings which was a 25% miss (.32-.25) but the decline in NAV from 10.68 to 10.56 where it shed 1%+ of its value and the observation by others that PSEC relies too much on nonrecurring sources of revenue which make it susceptible to these surprises.

    Hopefully the large deals over summer will pay off next quarter. This quarter's disappointment may prove to be a buying opportunity that pays off during the holidays. In any event, I am long and am likely to add shares if there is a sharp discount but otherwise holding shares for the next quarter report.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Analyst: est. 32 cents a share earnings

    by lespaulz24 Aug 25, 2014 4:17 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 25, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Buying if it misses. I expect next quarter will better show the impact of the large deals completed this summer. This quarter may just cover the 32 cents. Just.

  • Reply to

    Financial Services Majo r(OT)

    by frigator Aug 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 25, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    Take them skiing in the high country this winter so they will consider App State - good value, small classes, fairly conservative campus, not expensive yet a good education.

    What's more, you get to keep them close but not so close they will mind. Given you live just 'off the mountain', they will be within an hour's drive to visit home; something very useful for both them and you and often understated in importance. Still, it is far enough that they are on their own and can have a separate life.

    I'm a management professor and the concerns you raise about college education are spot-on and you do have to shop for a 'whole package' deal which goes beyond tuition cost and includes potential proximity, campus culture, and actual pedagogy delivered by professors rather than grad assistants or by professors in 350-student lecture courses.

  • Reply to

    cwn600

    by swampoppawpaw Aug 25, 2014 9:02 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 25, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Hi cwn600, We met at the MSN board years ago when MSN did the last of its special dividends.

    That was very fun and I recall turning some 50% in a matter of hours and you trying to disabuse people of how the special divy was not a gift - yet so many do not understand.

    Good luck to you.

  • ae_savant ae_savant Aug 20, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Thumbs down for you.

    'DD' - you can't even spell DD much less do it. Yeah, you are among the worst short tools on this board and your posts read like they were written by middle school cheerleaders. You're welcome.

  • You can pretty much put everyone, including me on ignore, and just follow his posts.

    Or you can entertain yourself and read the screed posted by shorts. Things like "Buying at 3 cents!" "Going BK tomorrow!".. and other great insight to help you decide on how to lose your money.

  • Reply to

    This MARKET is waiting for an excuse to TANK

    by thewisejman Aug 14, 2014 11:54 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 14, 2014 8:11 PM Flag

    There's no news that should affect the stock price that I am aware of. Recent earnings were positive and like you said, it's a BDC darling.

    I wouldn't give up on it. I also think the rpice here is good and you can flip it around $18 plus maybe get a nice divy while waiting. I've held it before where it seemed to stall and then suddenly, for just as little explanation, it starts rising steadily.

    Might be there are so many SPOs going on that they are drawing cash reserves so TCPC has stalled for that reason?

  • Open the $SPX chart and plot 20 & 40 EMA and 50 DMA and you can see 20 & 40 EMA were passed today and 50 DMA lies at 1956, just 1 point away from today's close. That serves as initial resistance now but once passed, likely we have had our 'correction' and start consolidating with it as support. Also request the RSI and MACD for $SPX as these are the major signals I tend to use to understand the market from a technical perspective.

    Also encouraging is the on balance volume which has been rising consistently the past week - a trend contrary to most corrections where the OBV would indicate a trend of heavier selling than buying. This also supports the idea that people ARE buying any up movements in the course of this dip. The OBV is very compelling as it is a volume trend analysis and it is showing a strong bullish trend in volume - volume on up days exceeding those 'sell off' days, even in the face of having lost more than 2 months of gains and of course, all the bad press that this market has drawn from propeller heads.

    Relative strength also passed 50 today so that is also a positive sign for the market. Finally, the MACD is at a crossover point with a sharply accelerating positive trend line.

    All these major stochastics are at a key turning point.

    We'll see if the test of the 50 DMA confirms this emergent bull or whether we are in a sideways or downside bearish correction.

  • Reply to

    This MARKET is waiting for an excuse to TANK

    by thewisejman Aug 14, 2014 11:54 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 14, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    If you didn't pick up some TCPC during the last SPO, the price now is attractive for a fundamentally sound BDC.

    OAKS is attractive at this price level (11.20s) also if you are looking for a REIT.

    Otherwise, cash isn't the worst place to be as there are many SPOs happening and there may be some good opportunities. Seems like everyone and their cousin is doing SPOs now.

  • Reply to

    NCT spo

    by frigator Aug 13, 2014 1:12 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 13, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    I think NRZ is the better of the two and 6.20 price is attractive.

    Sold my NCT and not planning to acquire more anytime soon.

  • Reply to

    SOLD HRZN

    by thewisejman Aug 11, 2014 10:31 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 11, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    I think MCC is still a buy. HRZN is maybe a bit weaker buy but still has some room. FULL is down and attractive at these levels.

  • Reply to

    Shorted S&P 500 right out of the gate....

    by keltus1952 Aug 8, 2014 9:41 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 8, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    Interesting that you get thumbs down for calling out our empty suit prezy. Expect the same here. LOL

    As for shorting this market - I think the strength of today based largely on a relief rally suggests short positions are also short-term plays and the long-term trend is up, barring more foreign bad news.

  • Reply to

    Agree or disagree

    by frigator Aug 6, 2014 6:37 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Aug 7, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    Good sober comments here.

    I keep a mix of some 8-12 ETFs with 50% of my non-IRA assets and 50% overweight with BDC and REITs, with some other equities for speculation.

    My IRA is 90% mutual funds (again, 8-10) with 10% brokerage account holding largely BDCs and REITs, again.

  • Reply to

    Down 3% in one day?

    by fracmonk Jul 31, 2014 6:19 PM
    ae_savant ae_savant Jul 31, 2014 10:01 PM Flag

    A bargain here and watching to pick up more.

  • Reply to

    NRZ

    by thewisejman Jul 29, 2014 10:43 AM
    ae_savant ae_savant Jul 31, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    There are several reasons why to buy and equity and some are more compelling than others, of course. Like wormwench, I have held and traded NRZ since it was spun-off by NCT and found that trading range to be reliable.

    So it may just reflect a bias among investors who have held the equity and watched its trend. I agree though that some of the core financials are weak. I think you'd agree that financials aren't always the major price determinant, albeit I would agree that price range and familiar trends are hardly compelling for a new investor.

    So yeah, if I was new to NRZ, I'd stand-off but from my view and some old traders, NRZ now ate about $6 is a good bet.

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