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Informatica Corporation Message Board

Boz_Inc 46 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 26, 2014 7:04 AM Member since: Dec 16, 1999
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  • boz_inc boz_inc Jul 26, 2014 7:04 AM Flag

    Everyone but SPOTFIRE is growing in double digits. SPOTFIRE is down 35% revenue growth however Vivek touts his product beats the competition. No way.

    For the second time in 4 months VR claims that Talabeau does better just because they accept credit cards. In the same interview VR gives a 6 month window to fix the problem. Really? It's gonna take TIBCO a year to figure out how accept credit cards?

    It's really a joke. With QLIK throwing out 20+% growth it really demonstrates the complete lack of leadership at TIBCO. The leadership at TIBCO could not figure out until after sales slowed 50% that their model was flawed? This is the precise thing TIBCO makes fun of ORACLE about. What use is the data once it's too late? TIBCO leadership and it's own analytic and predictive software should have identified the problem over a year ago but it did not?

    If I were the competition I would win every single deal when I was up
    against TIBCO just by pointing out the above. If the software can't detect an easy algorithm as slowing sales and renewal rates what good is the software...seriously?

    TIBCO is a 5.00 stock with VR pretending to be fully engaged.

  • Reply to

    15 years since IPO

    by boz_inc Jul 14, 2014 11:32 PM
    boz_inc boz_inc Jul 16, 2014 12:49 AM Flag

    The only unofficial offer was 3 years ago from HP and reportedly VR rejected the 38.00 per share offer and told the BOD he could get the PPS to that level himself. So where's the PPS 3 years later?

    That offer was when revenue was growing in the high 20's and TIBCO had 550 million less in debt. Who wants to buy with negative growth? Plenty of other dogs with no flees.

    Orcl would pay 10-12 per share.

    Too bad VR wasn't focused on basketball. With the Nasdaq run up TIBX could have easily been a 60.00 share company if growth never slowed. Now the competition leaped frogged TIBCO and they have no money left to correct the problem.

    The NBA js VR's golden parachute. You've been Viveked!

  • And the market cap is 90% lower than it's all-time high in 1999.

    Back then VR said TIBCO's best days were also ahead.

    Oh yeah one more thing...TIBCO is 98% smaller than oracle...a few years after the IPO VR predicted that TIBCO would be larger than ORACLE within 7 years..

    Super!

  • Reply to

    Activist selling

    by boz_inc Jun 20, 2014 9:53 AM
    boz_inc boz_inc Jun 20, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    Company claims one year needed to fix issues. Company says "structural" changes are needed which means more going on than execution. EPS is in free fall as is license and revenue streams. $15 will be before $25.00.

    TIBCO is not selling. If you get a hostile takeover you may get 20/22 per share.

    Today's volume indicates activist is unloading.

  • The activist may be selling with the recent management changes that were just announce. Hard to make pick a fight when TIBCO is announcing initiatives to correct problems.

    TIBCO should start trading in the 15.00 range until the structural issues are corrected.

  • Reply to

    Cash and outstanding Shares

    by boz_inc Jun 19, 2014 11:14 PM
    boz_inc boz_inc Jun 20, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    If DATA is acquired the in-roads are built. VR has conceded this.

    There's some rumblings on twitter calling prospective TIBCO customers (now using Talabeau) dumb.

    The decline has been happening over a few years too hear at least 4 more quarters to fix is not good.

    TIBCO has retention issues and now have to resell customers since Talabeau is "everywhere". TIBCO should have had this market shored up...they bought SPOTFIRE 7 years ago.

    No upside. If TIBCO can reinvent themselves maybe there will be some value in a few years

  • Cash went from 760 million down to 580 million in cash. TIBCO's net cash is 14 million. They officially blew through their cash hoard. All that's left is the money from the debt offering.

    Why are they still wasting money on retiring shares? Looks like outstanding shares increased 4 million despite retiring 1 million shares. TIBCO says they plan on accelerating repurchases? Why. With what money? Why repurchase when the net shares never go down? Save the money and continue building out SPOTFIRE.

    3-4 quarters to correct SPOTFIRE? 2 quarters ago VR said SPOTFIRE was taking a breather...so in total a year and half to correct SPOTFIRE issues? Doesn't sound like execution issues to me.

    I think the president will be a good addition but adding new board member to stacked deck is catering to the activist in the attempt to make them go away.

    Sounds like a ton problems...if DATA gets any meaniful enterprise traction TIBCO is in big big trouble.

    I can't see TIBCO staying above 20.00 too much longer. Too many problems. Might be a few years for TIBCO to rebuild.

  • Reply to

    WORLD CLASS

    by call_me_mister_load Jun 16, 2014 7:14 PM
    boz_inc boz_inc Jun 16, 2014 11:43 PM Flag

    World "class action" if the BOD do not make some significant changes. Greenberg says what I've been saying years..,where's the fiduciary responsibility?

  • boz_inc by boz_inc Jun 15, 2014 9:48 PM Flag

    The next round of investors are about to get Viveked. Similarly, to the Yahoo shareholders who were Yanged. At least Yang invested in Alibaba which was Yahoo's ultimate savior amid continued struggling growth.

    What does TIBCO have? Oh yeah, 30 million more options that can be granted and bonds that will sure dilute in 2 years.

    Brilliant...

  • boz_inc boz_inc Jun 12, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    When you take a company private you want a low value. It takes the value away from the shareholders and gives it direct to VR. Takeunder.

  • Reply to

    Buy out

    by boz-17 Jun 11, 2014 3:43 PM
    boz_inc boz_inc Jun 11, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    Could be bad news...ie the takeunder I've been warning about (ie going private). Could be a move to push out VR.

    Insiders know something or they all wouldn't be jumping ship.

  • Reply to

    odd TIBX market action continues

    by nzm06840 Jun 9, 2014 11:42 AM
    boz_inc boz_inc Jun 10, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Speaking of reinventing...bet HP is happy they didn't buy TIBCO for 38.00 three years ago. TIBCO is great at reinventing ways to dilute shareholders and drain company cash. I'm sure the options printing is still growing at a healthy pace

  • boz_inc boz_inc Jun 6, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    Monkey and I have been right...30% revenue growth to negative growth is a collapse. TIBCO's business had severely deteriorated over the last 24 months as well as their valuation.

    Senior managers keep leaving...pretty safe to call a 30% decline in revenue growth, 50% decline in EPS and a 90% drop in net cash a collapse.

  • Reply to

    Oracle's Mark Hurd on Tableau

    by back_map May 16, 2014 4:44 PM
    boz_inc boz_inc Jun 6, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    Why buy TIBCO when they can buy DATA? SPOTFIRE losing 30% revenue and DATA is growing at 90%.

  • boz_inc boz_inc Jun 6, 2014 12:50 AM Flag

    3.1 million share traded is barely above average volume and does not indicate smart money is getting out. Someone was accumulating yesterday and we don't know who or why. Is it for takeunder orchestrated by VR to loot the common? Activist to oust VR? Suitor accumulating shares for voting power? Don't know yet.

    I find VR's recent interviews as unusual. Was VR blatantly misleading or building a public argument of the value of TIBCO for whoever is acquiring TIBCO? Obviously, VR has shown no shareholder fiduciary responsibility which has me wondering if TIBCO goes private much like DELL which will destroy value for most common shareholders . I just don't see TIBCO commanding any meaningful premium right now.

    An activist may have bought yesterday. With senior executives leaving (Ram very quietly) then it could indicate things could be in collapse mode for TIBCO. It could also mean VR told his closest executives he's done...so they moved early.

    We don't know answers yet but as someone mentioned earlier, guidance will give a more accurate state of affairs for TIBCO. the stock is trading in the 19's ...it should be at 15...something is clearly going on

  • Reply to

    Who is buying?

    by boz_inc Jun 4, 2014 12:03 PM
    boz_inc boz_inc Jun 5, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    With key executives leaving and the huge miss (license revenue missed by close 20%), the price action indicates a sale. There is no other explanation other than acquisition speculators but volume was way too high for that thesis.

    VR recent interviews could have been more a public pitch for valuation in relation to an acquisition.

    Any company looking to acquire TIBCO will have a hard time selling a high premium for the company.

    Could see TIBCO sell at 25 per share but my gut tells me VR will negotiate something not of value to those pesky common shareholders. My bet is VR will be taken care of via options of the acquiring company. If this is case you could see a bid in the 18-21 range.

  • Reply to

    Who is buying?

    by boz_inc Jun 4, 2014 12:03 PM
    boz_inc boz_inc Jun 4, 2014 9:24 PM Flag

    Very surprised by today's movement. The PPS should have been at least 20% today. Someone is playing the takeover rumor or maybe Loeb or Icahn are accumulating in to force VR out and/or put TIBCO up for sale.

    I don't see any company offering a 50% premium for the stock...with warning. Could see someone come in and offer 19.00 or 20.00 a share in the next few days to force a vote.

    VR you may have to put those Shaq lunches on hold during the looming proxy fight

  • boz_inc by boz_inc Jun 4, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    I wonder who the big buyer is? TIBCO should be trading at 15.00 with warning and executives leaving. Someone is accumulating

  • boz_inc boz_inc Jun 4, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    IMO TIBX get acquired in a take under situation only. This way the only person that makes out is VR

  • Reply to

    CEO not to be trusted.

    by gordon939 Jun 4, 2014 8:49 AM
    boz_inc boz_inc Jun 4, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    BOD trusted him when he said he could get the PPS to 38.00 himself without the help of HP. The BOD trusted him we he a debt offering tied to retiring 150 million worth of stock at 33.17 two years ago.

    At 23.00 VR said the stock had the best value in recent memory....shares down over 20% since then.

    Two weeks ago VR said the stock should be double and the current price represented a better opportunity then when the stock was at 5.00

    Icahn...or Loeb need to come in and clean house

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