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Texas Pacific Land Trust Message Board

CBtheMillion 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 13, 2015 8:29 AM Member since: Feb 3, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Oops.

    by cbthemillion Feb 10, 2015 10:13 AM
    cbthemillion cbthemillion Aug 13, 2015 8:29 AM Flag

    Thanks for the thoughtful answer. We remain divided over the wisdom of trusting current management. Also, it is my understanding that proximity to the ocean is what protects farms from freezing weather. The further inland, the greater the chance of frost damage.

    The price recovered yesterday, so obviously there are others who agree with you.

  • Reply to

    Great conference call

    by cbthemillion Aug 12, 2015 11:20 AM
    cbthemillion cbthemillion Aug 12, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    I, too, wish they were still buying back stock. It would be better, in the long run, than paying the dividend. Even though dropping the dividend would certainly kill the stock price.

    Reading between the lines of the conference call, I heard caution and the need to conserve cash in order to get through the next year. Once Oosten is finished and the sales consumated, things will look much better. Oosten will contribute at least $1 per share earnings in 2016 and a lot of cash will be freed up.

  • cbthemillion by cbthemillion Aug 12, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    The Chairman's English is tough to understand, but the new CFO was truly excellent. He answered all questions with sincerity, clarity and most of all directness. They seem to be headed the right direction. Now, all we need is China's economy to not fully implode.

  • Reply to

    Oops.

    by cbthemillion Feb 10, 2015 10:13 AM
    cbthemillion cbthemillion Aug 12, 2015 8:48 AM Flag

    BC, I have been in and out of ALCO since 1986. Back then, Ben Hill Griffin III, who controlled 51% ruled the roost and shareholders (his four sisters included) were all but ignored. A couple decades later, via a legal settlement, BHG3, ceded control to his sisters, who led by John Alexander, managed to miss the opportunity to sell at $70 per share in the overheated 2007 real estate market. Emperor John, like his brother-in-law BHG3, saw no need to benefit anyone other than himself. This, I believe, is why, when the Griffin sisters sold out their 51% to our current owners, they didn't insist the minority shareholders get bought out, too. The new owners have said and done some interesting things about creating value, but the fact remains that they chose not to buy out minority holders. I have a skeptical view that they, too, will abuse their control, pay themselves big salaries and give pennies of dividends to the small fry. Time will tell.

    My other point is that the orange growing business, which ALCO is now "all in" can be very difficult and risky. One year you make decent money, the next prices go south or a freeze destroys two years of crops. Will this earnings report lead to a regularly profitable future. My initial response was yes, but the market is saying no.

  • Reply to

    Oops.

    by cbthemillion Feb 10, 2015 10:13 AM
    cbthemillion cbthemillion Aug 10, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    BC,
    Any thoughts on the recent earnings report and stock meltdown? Shouldn't good earnings have prevented the selloff? I have always felt that ALCO has an interesting asset, too highly valued by the market because it is managed by people who don't respect minority shareholders. If we break below 35, I could see buying.

  • I hope that I am not being a "babble head," but in today's NY Times there is an article on former governor Eliot Spitzer building a 24 story apartment complex at 420 - 430 Kent. This will block the Manhattan views of some of the premium condos at Oosten, depressing their value a bit. On the other hand, it is good to see the area developing and it adds confidence to XIN being able to sell all 400 units quickly.

    Of course, Oosten is minor compared to the approximately 10,000 units XIN is currently building or planning in China. The last earnings report was unclear as to whether sales were picking up after Chinese New Year over there. The dividend declaration implies that the last 2 1/2 months of sales have been at least okay. As long as XIN doesn't lose money on their China operations, this stock is very undervalued. If the Chinese economy falls off a cliff, so too does Xin Yuan.

    I am long with my fingers crossed and happy to be receiving my nickel in July.

  • I don't think last year's schedule has anything to do with it. They typically announce the dividend a few days after earnings.

    Sales at Oosten look strong. At current pricing, it will provide over $1 per share earnings. Like to see the building finished in 2015, but suspect 2016 is more likely.

    Now, if home sales in China pick up, we could have a real winner here. I just can't get a good sense whether China is merely going through a slow patch or entering into a state of serious decline.

    We shall see.

TPL
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