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Gilead Sciences Inc. Message Board

CD3313 77 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 21, 2014 9:29 PM Member since: Mar 1, 1999
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  • Reply to

    IMS prescriptions for Harvoni/Sovaldi

    by cd3313 Dec 21, 2014 8:37 PM
    cd3313 cd3313 Dec 21, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    sorry, they weren't provided.

  • Were finally posted to the BOA/Merrill Lynch site @ 12:20 today.
    Combined Harvoni/Sovaldi TRx of 9,100; Harvoni TRx of 6,109 and Harvoni NRx of 3,466.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • From a tweet.. not yet verified.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • of cancer drugs.
    TAF for HIV will be filed for European approval within the next 2 weeks.

    I wonder how many of the momentum players that jumped in and out of GILD over the last few months have even the FAINTEST clue about Gilead's pipeline or the strength of their management team. If they did, they wouldn't have made suggestions like, "Put out a press release to defend their HCV pricing"; or, "Declare a one-time dividend to boost the shares"...Really??? Why should they? To bail you out because you thought the stock would go to $120 in 3 weeks and loaded up on OTM weeklies? Blame your own greed and lack of patience. Not Gilead. They've got a successfully proven track record...and news can come out at ANY time, according to THEIR schedule.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's going to be a lot of fun

    by cd3313 Dec 18, 2014 3:56 PM
    cd3313 cd3313 Dec 18, 2014 11:43 PM Flag

    I've mentioned before that this stock historically likes "round" numbers...ie. $107.50, $110, etc., so I believe that correlates to some of your figures, as well.

    Another point I forget to mention about the 2-year chart is that the 50 day SMA was also violated ONLY in conjunction with those price points and the negative MACD.

    I apologize for the Yahoo figures I posted from memory, it's more like an ~300MM difference between the average revenue estimate for this year and the LOWEST estimate for 2015. However, the point remains that ALL of the analysts are projecting that Gilead's revenue will increase (probably significantly) next year. So why should we expect the PPS to drop back to last year's levels, or for the stock to maintain a P/E around 12 or so???

    The problem the past couple of months was that retail participants saw that GILD was undervalued and recognized the potential for tremendous price appreciation going forward. That fact remains. But (for most) their timing was off. They figured they were getting in on the ground floor and would ride 1990's internet-style hype and momentum (thanks Cramer) to quick profits. All the while, the BIG money took advantage of their lack of patience...and they got fleeced. IMO, HUGE profits will be made by those who held onto their shares.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cd3313 cd3313 Dec 18, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    And here, in a single post, cantdance123 has (IMO) summarized the ENTIRE problem with GILD...

    These days, the market is filthy with fast-money traders who believe they'll get rich quick by following the momentum to unrealistically high or low prices in the short-term. Certainly, money can be made (and lost) playing the swings. But, IMO, the only way to recognize fair value (much higher PT's) with this stock is to be long (and that means 1+ year).

    "Get rich carefully" and "Stop trading"??? That hardly exists anymore with today's retail market participant. Unfortunately, they seem to reflect a society so preoccupied with instant gratification that patience has become a dirty word. They want it ALL and they want it NOW.

    I'll wait for $150+ next year.

    Thanks for letting me rant and for the thumbs down that follow.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • watching the shorts squirm and the traders chase.

    I genuinely appreciate all the near term TA from posters like sr. cosa, but my TA is really simple:
    Pull up a 2-year daily chart of GILD and notice that the only 3 times the MACD was negative for more than 5 days correlated exactly with the times the stock consolidated it's $50, $75, and $100 price points. Then look at the gains that followed...

    And all this talk about Gilead's earnings not being repeatable going forward because of competition or market saturation??? Look at the 25 analyst estimates for GILD on yahoo. The LOWEST revenue estimate for 2015 is ~$500MM ABOVE the average estimate for 2014, while the highest estimate is $10 BILLION ABOVE THAT. Something's gotta give...

    Enjoy.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Quarter in the bag

    by sschatzi33 Dec 12, 2014 10:35 AM
    cd3313 cd3313 Dec 12, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    Don't forget about the Branded Prescription Drug (BPD) fee. Last quarter it was $337MM, which shaved .21 off EPS. In the 3Q slides, the estimate for 4Q was $213-$263MM.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • between shorts and longs, as opposed to when earnings came out and there was so much giddiness. Trading "longs" are apprehensive and shorts are emboldened...Much more conducive for higher prices going forward.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Bought 5 Jan 2016 $115's for $11.75. Paid $11.80 for the $110's a few days ago, oh well.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I'd like to take the bus in Philly. Oh, wait. SEPTA raised their rates on July 1, 2013... and It looks like I'll need $2.25 now. They must have known Sovaldi was going to get approved and were preparing themselves. So much for brotherly love.

    wwwDOTSeptaDOTorg/fares/new/

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    bought puts on gild

    by stanstevens61 Dec 9, 2014 2:20 PM
    cd3313 cd3313 Dec 9, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    Past performance (even if true) is no guarantee of future success.
    But, congrats on your profits; even though I don't believe in name-calling.

    I sure did see it go from $116+ down to $98.37...been buying 2016 LEAPS (now have 205 contracts) on the dips which I'll hold long-term.

    I sold 5 Jan15 $85's at triple what I paid for them when the stock was at $116.40 (woke up early that day, too). That was the last of my short-term plays for this year. ALL of my Jan15's that remain (670 contracts) are long-term gainers of 800%+ with strikes from $35-$67.50.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    bought puts on gild

    by stanstevens61 Dec 9, 2014 2:20 PM
    cd3313 cd3313 Dec 9, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    I had enough conviction to get up at 3:30 this morning so I could buy at the low.
    And...NO problem falling back asleep again.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cd3313 by cd3313 Dec 9, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    Bought 5 Jan 2016 $100's for $16.30. Doubled my position and dropped the cost per by .78.
    Going back to bed now.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CapitalistBull and GrindTime over on the Market Pulse board are in for some pain if they don't cover their shorts soon. I think Friday's prescription numbers will be exceptional; and that GILD won't go back under $100 until it splits again. We've already had our correction.

    I love when this stock goes up when the market is down.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cd3313 by cd3313 Dec 8, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    Huge action again in the Dec 20 $110's (over 20,000 calls & puts). Also, new positions in the $113's and $114's. Myself, I added 5 of the Jan 2016 $110's when the market opened on Friday for $11.80.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Re: Cramer

    by cd3313 Dec 7, 2014 1:41 PM
    cd3313 cd3313 Dec 7, 2014 8:28 PM Flag

    Excellent advice. Unless you want to be a "slum lord", location and good tenants are KEY. I bought my 3 family owner-occupied home in 2004, and it was the foundation for my success in the stock market. Cover all your bases and don't be afraid to ask questions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cd3313 by cd3313 Dec 7, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    Whether you love him, hate him, or are indifferent...the MOST important thing to realize is that YOU are responsible for your own investments. Anything he says and anything that you read on these message boards MAY be based on fact, but are also OTHER people's opinions. IMO, there is no short cut to financial success. After all, it isn't easy to predict the future. And, isn't that what we're all trying to do? Aside from those who try to manipulate others for their own gain (and sadly, there are many) I want to see EVERYONE succeed. But, regardless of whether you're a trader, buy stocks for the long term, or think that tulips will be the next big thing, YOU MUST do the homework necessary to feel confident about YOUR investments so YOU can sleep at night.

    The ASH Conference runs through Tuesday

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    THE ALL MIGHTY SOAP BOX!

    by traderrook Dec 5, 2014 6:49 PM
    cd3313 cd3313 Dec 5, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    Excellent post!

    But, two things that bother me about those with bigger soapboxes are:
    1. Do they have a hidden agenda because they know the affect they'll have on others?
    2. Do those who follow their advice do so blindly or have they done everything they can to educate themselves about their investments?

    Personally, I would not invest in ANYTHING that wasn't fundamentally sound just because that's where the momentum is. Anyone who listened to Gilead's 3Q earnings call would have heard Robin say they would be buying back the same amount of stock in 4Q ($1.7 billion) as they did during the prior quarter. Would she have said that if they thought the stock would go to $120 overnight? And yet, Cramer came out and said we were going to $120...and a lot of people got hurt.

    My soapbox is small and I don't mean to hurt anyone's feelings, but I retired last year at 50 because of my long-term position in GILD. Maybe that's not for you, so be it. But, I've always said to my friends that I LOVE when GILD goes up and the market goes down. What I find comforting confuses others. That comes from years of experience and a broader outlook. And yet, I still sacrifice my time every day to check out each online and market pulse story that's tweeted. I did spend 1 1/2 hours yesterday watching the VA hearing...even though, I don't need to do ANY of that anymore. I only wish that more of you would do the same...for your own sake.

    Those who blindly follow the herd are likely to step in you-know-what.

    LONG AND STRONG

  • So many posts about wanting to buy GILD @ $104-$105.
    So much hand-wringing about going under $100.
    So much nonsense about $92-$95 entries.
    Don't forget the daily fade.
    Buy? Short? Cover?

    Like Red Sox fans used to say before 2004, "just wait 'til next year"...they sure taught me patience!

    BTW, Morgan's $121 price target is WAY too low. After all, weeks ago before Cramer sent us to the back of the bus (and subsequently jumped on again) he said we were going to $120.

    It's doubtful that those who troll the tweets and flash reports took the time to listen to the VA hearing where it was stated by the "experts" that Gilead's HCV franchise will last DECADES and earn OVER $200 BILLION.

    LONG AND STRONG

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

GILD
93.79+2.50(+2.74%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

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