Good article from Motely pointing out that the message from Samsung is the worst case for Intel - Phones cannibalizing tablets. Intel has focused on tablet volume. Intel just can't get mobile right. They finally have a mobile product, and it's the wrong one.
He is a pathetic individual with no life, who has to troll a Yahoo MB groping for any human interaction. It would be sad if it weren't so annoying.
Further on it notes that the $18 price target is based on a 19 P/E of 2016 earnings. In 2016, it probably will be trading at $18 - sounds reasonable. But this year???
That WOULD be a good point, except that AA still looks overvalued when - as you recommend - they are compared to their peers on growth. AA is expected to have a 50% growth rate from year end '14 to '15. Over that same horizon, US Steel is forcasted to have a 100% growth rate - and with a forward P/E of about half that of AA - - AA still looks grossly overvalued. (or at least X appears to be a better buy)
I do appreciate your feedback. But I still can't find anything that leads to any conclusion other than AA being very top heavy.
Okay. I'll take your points. But does that justify a P/E of 22 - around double their peer group? How much growth does AA need to do to justify that level of forward P/E?
Separate the Stock from the Company. I'm not saying that Alcoa is a bad company. I'm just questioning whether, in the short term, AA is overvalued.
Status: still haven't shorted, but looking at $15...
Great points - and you're absolutely right that the final call on any stock position is emotional - gut - rather than analytical. If analytics were completely accurate, everyone would get it right and there would be 0% volatility. The bottom line is that stocks are rarely valued correctly - high or low.
Yeah, I'm leaning heavily toward shorting - especially given today's action, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. But it's worth pointing out that I'm also very short the entire market. I think we're seriously overdue for a large (~10%) correction.
And I've been wrong about that so far - back to your first point.
So, thanks for the reply - appreciate your feedback and civil discussion with someone with a slightly different opinion.
So, my point was that AA has the P/E of a tech company, and to refute me you cited a couple high P/E tech companies - both with crazy revenue growth and expansion?
Your reply is exactly my point, there is no justification for this P/E and longs can't really justify the valuation - they are just full of hope.
A forward P/E of 21.4? For comparison:
US Steel has a forward P/E of 12.8;
MT = 10.8
AKS = 8.7
FCX = 11.2
No position now, but thinking of shorting before earnings. Would love to hear thoughts from all the longs about the P/E (valuation) of AA stock.
Yes, I know, I'll probably just get a bunch of mindless bashing and name calling, which I'll ignore. But would truly enjoy some meaningfull discussion.
So, Intel traded significantly higher on unusual volume for 20 minutes before the close, and then announces increased PC demand...?
Someone obviously had the data ahead of the market. Why isn't anyone talking about the obvious trading on data leaked to institutions? Where's the SEC to protect the average guy?
So, both Intel and MSFT traded significantly higher on unusual volume for 20 minutes before the close, and then Intel announces increased PC demand...?
Someone obviously had the data ahead of the market. Where's the SEC to protect the average guy?
In the last two days the Nasdaq is down 1% and Intc is down 0.8%.
But every Intel fanboy can't stop tripping over themsleves to yell about how Intel did today. That tells you one of two things:
Option 1: Fanboys are idiots
Option 2: Intel stock performance has been so poor for so long that being basically even with the overall market performance is reason to cheer.
Of course, these two options are not mutually exclusive...
See you fanboys tomorrow.
The same board regulars completely ignored the announcement a couple weeks ago that Acer had dropped Intel.
Congrats - the worst selling notebooks are coming out with more models that won't sell.
I wonder how much contra-revenue that will cost Intel?
Let's listen to the Google CEO tell us how great Chromebook is doing? Smart. Great logic.
Funny, when I do an Amazon search of the most popular selling there is one Chromebook in the top 10 and two in the top 20.
How many bridges have you bought recently? Perhaps the CEO of Google isn't the most objective resource for the success of Chromebook sales.
Posts like this are so moronic. You ignore any days that Intel tanks - all those days that Intel underperformed that market. Were you posting those days? Intel has one good day and you're shouting your head off.
Ignore the man behind the curtain.
Ha ha - are you kidding? No one... NO ONE... is buying Chromebooks. Putting out 20 new models of them will just give people 20 more options to ignore.
In a pretty big down market, INTC is holding tough. Perhaps the bounce from the artificial dividend drop yesterday. But still green in a decent sized sell off. We'll see if it can continue, but you have to give INTC credit today.