I cannot BELIEVE that anyone would listen to ANY raving lunatic on TV (especially Cramer!!) and follow their trading "advice"! C'mon, folks. It's the 21st century. Did you learn nothing from the 2000-2002 implosion of stock prices???
If you trust your financial future to the likes of Cramer you have wayyyyy bigger problems than having lost a few bucks on a trade. Try taking RESPONSIBILITY for your own actions and stop being a victim.
But if you don't want to do that, then send me $100 and I'll send you the secrets to beating Cramer at his own game. GUARANTEED! Make MILLIONS! This is a limited time offer. Hurry! Act now! (sheesh!)
All those nice little tradeable peaks and valleys are easy to see in hindsight but much harder to pull the trigger on ST trades than it seems, when one is a LT bull. There must have been 10 different times when I was thinking of selling some shares of GG, or just writing some covered calls to cushion the expected downside, only to see the price of GG steadily climb farther than anyone thought possible in such a short period of time. I may have booked some gains (and paid taxes on those gains) but might be sitting here with half or fewer of the shares I have today- OR NONE!
And if/when the price of gold has set new highs that most people wouldn't have dreamed possible 5 years ago, two years ago, or even today, I'll be selling those shares gradually and finally cashing out on the superbull market in commodities.
Does it hurt to sit and wait out the dips? Of course. We longs have endured immense pain in mid '02 (nearly a 50% haircut), early '03 (a 30% whack), and the big cahuna- late '03 to early '04 (a 45% drop and a 21-month wait until we made new highs in GG). This correction may be worse than any of those, or it may be over tomorrow, but until the Fed stops printing dollars as fast as the presses can run, the price of gold can only go up over the long term. That's my story and I'm sticking with it.
*sitting down next to Jesse Livermore with my hands pinned tightly under my butt*
Best of luck to all,
My two-cents worth:
PETS tried to fill the gap between $13.60 and $13.65 today, didn't make it, volume was less than the 3 previous down days, ergo this was a failed rally and the path of least resistance is still down.
We did get a near perfect 50% retrace of the run from the $4.00 to the March high of $20.20, which may give some comfort to the longs, but with the general market slumping, the odds are good that the .618 retracement target is next. That would be $10.19 or so.
I'll hold my short with a stoploss at the gap.
"I will no longer vote for the lesser of two evils. The road to globalism/one-worldism/socialism is just as unacceptable when posted with a 25 mph speed limit as it is with a 65 mph one. And those who map out the slower journey are every bit as evil and mendacious as those who would take us there quickly. A weak-kneed (or, worse, a hidden agenda) �conservative� will no longer get my vote. Barring the emergence of another Reagan republican (which is a monumental longshot), I will henceforth be voting for third party candidates, or staying home."
For those of you who are finally getting the idea that the lesser of two evils is still evil, I suggest you seriously consider the Libertarian Party this election. Our basic philosophy is small government, no global intervention, true self-defense of our own shores and borders(not pre-emptive strikes on any and every country that looks cross-eyed at us), personal freedom and responsibility instead of an all-knowing, all-powerful nanny state (socialism, communism, fascism, call it whatever you want, that's the direction the two major parties are pulling us) and a level playing field for all in every facet of daily life. No handouts, no special interests, no powerful lobbies writing the laws of our nation, economic freedom and true opportunity for all who are willing to work hard to achieve their goals. The Libertarian Party best espouses the ideals of government that the Founding Fathers envisioned when they wrote the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. We're not some radical, out of the blue political philosophy that arose out of anarchic ideas. Just a representative republic the way it was intended to be in the original United States.
Anyoe interested can check out the LP website. www.lp.org.
If everyone who ever voted for "the lesser of two evils" actually votes for an LP candidate this fall and in 2008, those who are deliberately ruining our country merely to line their own pockets (Republicans and Democrats), will be sent scurrying back into the sewers from which they spewed forth.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
Nice to see you posting again on a fairly regular basis. I've been lurking here and holding WHT/GG almost as long as you have been posting and trading/holding. I've got a 10-bagger on my oldest WHT/GG shares and when all is said and done I won't be at all surprised if GG turns out to be the best investment I ever made, on a par with those who bought MSFT back in the late 80's. For those who are curious, MSFT went from a split adjusted $.08/share in 1986 (the earliest data I have) to a high of $53.81 in Jan. 2000. That is an increase of more than 650 times. Just for fun if we take only half that increase (300 times)and plug it into the WHT/GG price back around the time it first listed on AMEX- let's use $1.00 for WHT, or $4 for GG (using the merger ration of 1:4) starting back near the beginning of the bull run, we find that a 300 fold increase in GG would get the share price to $1200 ($300 using WHT's number).
Sound preposterous?? Sure, with gold at $675. But what about gold at $1000? $2000? $4000? Whoever thought Google would get over $400? QCOM to $740 (unadjusted)?? YHOO to $500 (unadjusted)? And I'm sure we've all seen the numbers on what some of the miners did in the last bull of the late 70s. Plenty of 100-, 200- 300- baggers in that bunch (most defunct or merged or bought-out by now). And few if any of these companies just mentioned had the type of balance sheet and profitability that GG currently enjoys and will most certainly see improve in the future if gold/silver prices keep rising.
I'm not trying to be a rah-rah pump-and-dump hypester here. Just laying out a possibility of gains beyond most reasonable expectations based on past markets and mass psychology. I still think we are only in the 4th or 5th inning of this 9 inning bull market. If anyone thinks the market is now going parabolic, I submit that we ain't seen nothin' yet compared to what it may be like 2-5 years down the road. As long as the Fed keeps printing money like there's no tomorrow and the government keeps spending it like it is Monopoly money, commodity prices MUST keep rising. We need gold and silver and related stocks in our portfolios just to maintain any purchasing power we will lose to inflation.
Sorry this got a bit long. Just putting in my two-cents worth. Bottom line: hold on tight to GG if you want to "survive" this commodity bull market.
"DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 26, 2006- Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE:PXD - News) today announced that it has sold $450 million of 6.875% Senior Notes that will mature May 1, 2018 (the "2018 Notes"). The price to the public for the 2018 Notes is 99.903% of the principal amount. Net proceeds of approximately $447 million will be used to (i) fund a tender offer for the Company's outstanding 6.50% Senior Notes due 2008, of which $350 million is currently outstanding, and (ii) for general corporate purposes."
So let me get this straight... they trade in 6.5% notes to pay a HIGHER INTEREST RATE (6.875%) on MORE MONEY????? What am I missing, folks? Isn't the idea to pay LESS interest on you outstanding debt?? AND, to have LESS DEBT??
"yeah covered at 33.61, thanks for the $$"
Gee, we sure enjoyed watching you brag all morning how you made all of $50 or so after commissions (assuming you actually placed the trade). And BTW, you didn't take any money from me. I've been holding WHT/GG since early '03 and my oldest position is up almost 9-fold in those 3+ years. Today's blip looks like a spec of dust on the chart of GG that I watch the most.
I tell you what, you keep shorting gaps in GG and I'll just hang on to my shares. In five years we'll get together to compare total returns to see who did the best. OK?
If you really are only 22 and a college student, please don't confuse luck with skill. You are wayyyyyyy too young to possibly have that much REAL WORLD investing experience. It is a lot harder than it may seem to you at the moment. Most of us who have been around longer than 10 or so years in the market learned the hard way to NEVER confuse luck with genius. I know I did. Got burned pretty bad, but escaped in better shape than most. And I'm still around, MUCH wiser than I was in 2000. Best of luck to you, kid.
"...people in the industry know it's a time bomb"
What people? Please name one and cite a link or article where that was stated. Thanks.
Any of you geniuses ever bother to look at the ABX website for FACTS about their hedging program? I did, and assuming they are telling the truth about their hedging program, it looks like they have it under control and have very favorable terms- i.e.- they can sell gold at the hedge price OR prevailing market price, at their discretion; the contracts automatically roll over to the next year if they are not fulfilled; mark-to-market hedging losses are NOT included in net worth requirements needed to satisfy the MTAs; the last hedging contract expires in 2014. THAT is the year that hedging COULD become a serious problem for ABX, IF they continually put off satisfying their hedges until then AND the price of gold continues to go higher until then; etc.
Based on my understanding, I'm not terribly concerned about the next year or two for ABX. Sure hedging is a factor in deciding whether or not to invest in ABX, but I think more important is how much unhedged gold they will be selling in the next few years, and what the cost will be to produce that gold. I don't think ABX has as much upside potential as an unhedged producer, but I certainly don't think they are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, either.
Feel free to critique my commentary, AFTER you have read and understood what ABX's official hedging policy is, from their website. Cheerleaders and doomsdayers need not bother.
(scroll down to hedging discussion)
"Support broken again. Next stop $12.5. Fun stuff."
And if $12.50 doesn't hold, the gap under $12.23 is singing its siren song. Also, the recent lows at $13.32 and $13.33 have now become fairly strong resistance to any near-term upmove. The path of least resistance is definitely down right now.
TGB's chart just gets better looking every day. Lots of positive divergences in the indicators I look at. It's almost a foregone conclusion that we take out the Feb. 04 high of $2.30. After that the early '99 high of $4.00 is the next target.
If you like wave counts, LT it looks like we are in the early stages of a wave 3 (that assumes we take out $2.30). If we start our wave count in mid-'03 at $.19, the first wave up produced a 12-fold increase, second wave corrected to $.80 in the middle of '05. Since 3rd waves are usually the longest of the 3 up-waves, it's safe to assume that if we have a wave 3 upleg, it should be at least $2.11 increase, or somewhere in the $3.00 range. However, if we break above that $2.30 resisitance, given the upward price pressures on commodities and metals in general, plus the flood of momentum players jumping in, plus TGB's timing on getting Gibralter going full speed and with potentially good feasability results on Prosperity, I would expect the $4.00 resistance to be taken out on wave 3, followed by the inevitable correction, then a last leg that could most certainly take us well past the all-time highs (US$14.25 on my chart). Mind you, I'm talking in terms of months and years for this to happen (in line with the general LT bull market in commodities).
So, if you were fortunate (or wise) enough to have seen TGB's potential in recent months, you could be easily sitting on a 5- to 10-bagger from here. Those of us who got in down around the $1.00 area could be sitting on double those returns. The question is, will we have the patience to sit on our hands and not be tempted to sell after a steep runup like we had from Nov-Feb?
Best of luck to all investors or traders.
I think that IF it is a cup and handle, the bottom of the cup is pretty darn bumpy. Usually the bottom of the cup is a fairly nicely rounded saucer shape. Also, according to William O'Neil, a typical cup w/handle pattern is from 7-65 weeks long. Going back to the left rim of the cup in early '04 is well over 100 weeks. But since TA is all about interpretation, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
What impresses me much more formation-wise is the beautiful basing TGB did for most of the last half of '05. We blasted off that base at the beginning of this year on huge volume, broke the LT downtrend and are consolidating now in preparation for wave 3, the second upleg of this move.
I don't know when wave 2 will be finished, but I think when it is we will see TGB double from that low if not go much higher on that leg. My guess is that $3.00+ is quite reasonable to expect later this year.
The ANO chart looks pretty bullish right now. Similar to mid-2003 when we got a spike low, then a sharp upthrust over the 200-day MA, a test or two of that line, then a prolonged uptrend that lasted for months and saw ANO go from the low $.30s to well over $3.00. I would be a buyer any time ANO tests the 200-day MA from now on. It looks to be forming an ascending triangle (bullish) and one more dip to the low $.90s would help to complete that chart pattern.
"WHAT THE HELL DOES THE GOVERNMENT PAY INTO IT?"
Social Security is a TAX! Plain and simple. Governments do not PAY taxes. Governments COLLECT taxes.
Not to pick on you, freedomquestions, but this is a good example of how financially ignorant the typical American is. Most think Social Security is a retirement plan. It is not. It is a wealth transfer plan to insure that the "have-nots"- retired persons and those who are disabled- are "taken care of", to a degree at least, by the "haves"- those who are currently working.
The only promise you get from the government is that IF you pay into the plan when you work (which we are forced to do), THEN when you retire you will get SOMETHING. That something is whatever amount the government thinks they can squeeze out of the next generation of workers without them protesting too much.
For all you short term traders out there, assuming a close above $1.51 I'm getting a near term- days to a few weeks- target for TGB of $1.80- $2.00. That's simply based on the theory of the pause being roughly the middle of the move and projecting the same upward distance for the second part of the rally as the first (i.e.- a measured move)
This move started last month at the $1.00 level that formed a nice base. The intial spike took us up to $1.51. Then we corrected back to $1.30 the other day. So another $.50 move from $1.30 or $1.50 gives a target of $1.80- $2.00.
Of course, with any strong bull market, there is no guarantee that the $2.00 will be any sort of top at all. Any profit taking there might be equivalent to jumping off the bus at the edge of town for what could turn out to be a cross-country trip.
Good luck traders,
The 200-day MA resisitance held this time. I sold yesterday @ $4.37. The most likely TA scenario is that WSTL fills the gap between $4.22 and $4.04. Depending on how much downward momentum it carries, WSTL could test the Sept lows. I'll be looking to buy only after either a sharp reversal on a gap fill (with good volume) or a successful test of those Sept. lows. Good luck, longs.
Indeed a very interesting article, equalizer. Just by reading numerous yahoo boards over many years I can attest to the fact that there appears to be many paid bashers and scam artists. Certainly dangerous to ones financial health. But........
You know what? This is a free country. Anyone who reads a stock discussion board and is worried about manipulation by bashers and con artists has a very simple solution at their disposal-
DON'T READ THE MESSAGE BOARD!!!!!!!
Get your information the old fashioned way. Research, read newspapers, magazines, financial reports, books, talk to people in the business world of the company you are looking at to invest in. CALL THE COMPANY DIRECTLY.
Oh, but I forgot, that takes actual WORK. Sorry, too much to ask of someone who is investing their lifesavings, I guess. After all, this is the age of instant gratification and we can't be bothered by all those details that involve actual blood, sweat and tears now, can we?
If there is a problem, then the government has an obligation to enforce the laws, and I hope any crook gets the maximum possible punishment for any crime they commit, but we have so many laws that virtually all of us will break the law sooner or later, only because we are relinquishing our personal freedom in exchange for "security" more and more. It is not physically possible for all the laws on the books of all the governments in the country to be enforced to the letter with the manpower and money that are currently available. The result is that the crooks will continue to operate freely because the cost of doing business (i.e.- getting arrested and convicted) is a small, manageable and worthwhile risk to take in exchange for the windfall profits they will allegedly earn with their criminal activities. Simple economics.
Rant over. Wake up folks. You all are willing accomplices in the game to decide who gets to keep most or all of your money. Each and every one of you get what you so richly deserve if you insist on playing by their rules. Good luck to you, suckers.
My experience with charts and stocks approaching their 200 day MAs from underneath after a sharp selloff like WSTL had is that if it doesn't break decisively above the 200 in a few days to a week, it most likely will head down to test the base under $4.00. Probably won't hang around the 200 very much. The positive that makes a breakout above it more likely is the solid base it built all late summer and early fall along with the slow, steady rise upward; not a sharp rebound up that would only encourage the shorts to pile on again in this area.
My two cents worth of TA.
It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that.... volume.
Not surprising that WSTL dips today after 7 consecutive up days. I'd be more worried if it DIDN'T have a down day this week. The gap above $4.94 and the 200-day MA are both calling. The path of least resistance right now is up, but not straight up. I'm in at $3.88 back in late August and I'll hang on for more upside. That 3-month base WSTL built will hold for a long time, barring a market meltdown or other catastrophe.