I hope you are in the ballpark. Regarding the market, I continue to be bothered by the terrible performance of FSAM. Granted, they are a bad apple but some of it could rub off on ACAS.
Thank you again. To summarize, you believe that there will be about $1 dividend from and $12 value in ACIN but are not sure as the the earnings or value of ACAS. However, it would appear that in order to achieve a $3 value, for $15 combined value, it would have to have NI of at least $.25.
Thank you for the explanation. I have assumed that the accounting would probably change valuations. However, I am working with a pre split value of hopefully about $19 per share of which 80% will go to ACIN and 20% to ACAS. The question is what discounts will be applied to these values? Presently, the discount is over 30%. My hope is that the ACIN portion will be no worse than 20% for a market value of about $12. Hopefully ACAS will be no worse for a value of at least $3 resulting in a combined value of at least $15.
However, all of the is based on the earnings of the combined companies. Using a PE ratio of 11 it will require at least $1.36 of earnings to support the $15 value.
I am lost. Are you saying that the combined NAV of the post split companies will not be equal to the NAV of the pre-split ACAS?
I don't follow your math. If ACIN has NAV of 13.33 then ACAS would have NAV of 25% of that or 3.33. The combined NAV 16.66 is well below my projection of about 19 (assuming stock buy backs equal to option exercise proceeds).
Next, I assume that the combined companies will sell for about 11 times combined earnings. If ACIN could earn a dollar it might only sell for 11 not 12.
23 cents equates to 92 cents per year. Earnings of about $1.30 are needed to support the current market price and about $2.00 to support a market price of about $20. This is why ACAS sells at a substantial discout to NAV.
I agree. Short term there is a double whammy in the dilution in NAV from options coupled with the reality that nearly all there options will be exercised before the spin off with most shares then dumped on to the market,
40 million plus shares of headwind is a big number, This will put a lid on the stock price, Loner term I fear that post spin off there will be excessive stock option grants and increased compensation. Conclusion: most holders are waiting for an opportunity to get out. ACAS is run for the benefit of management not the shareholders.
Management wants this spin of as much as you do. They will exercise all their options before and then will afterwards receive fresh option grants and generous raises and bonuses for a job well done..
After the exercise of all the options and the spin off it will be time to fill the tank up again with another round of option grants. What I cannot understand is the apparent plan for many posters to continue to hold shares in the this pieces of this company post spin off.
The message here is clear: this company is run primarily to enrich management not to enhance shareholder value. This stock is not selling at a discount because the market doesn't understand the company, The discount is because the market does understand the company. It also knows that they are facing sales of about 40 million shares from option exercises before the spin-off. This company is not a hold but is a sale on any pop in price. .
What amazes me are the posters who express a desire to hold on to pieces of the spin off on a long term basis . This despite the fact that this company is being run primarily for the benefit of the management not the shareholders. ACIN will be a fee laden BDC with the prospect of little growth (selling at a discount to NAV) and below market returns. ACAS will continue to be run for the benefit of the management: a whole new round of stock options and super generous compensation plans unrelated to either the performance of the company or the stock. If the stock pops take the money and run..
One principal factor is stock options. They will be rendered virtually worthless after the spin off. Therefore, 35 million plus options will be exercised before the spin off and probably about half of the resulting shares will be dumped on the market before the spin off. The market sees this and does not want to buy before the option shares are cleared.
You are wrong. ACIN and ACAS need to trade above $10 per share. Many institutions are prohibited from buying shares trading below $5 per share and there are margin limitations on shares trading below $10 per share.
ACAS and probably ACIN will have a reverse split.
You had better look at the slide presentation. 8 million of the 41.9 million option shares do not vest until after 2015.
Apparently options will be virtually worthless following the dividend spin-off of ACIN. If the spin -off occurs before year end there will be 8 million of the 41.9 million options not vested. Assuming that ACAS does not accelerate the vesting of these options (I know this may be unrealistic) then the initial dilution from the exercise of the 33.9 million options could be about $1.20 down to $18.92. Using an assumed proceeds of $320 million from the exercises and the use of these funds to purchase 22.1 million shares back at $14.50 per share leaves a net increase in shares outstanding of 11.8 million and a dilution of $.85 down to $19.27.
If ACIN has 13.50 NAV and trades at about 11, for a 10% yield, and ACAS trades at NAV of 5.20 then total value is 16.20 for a gain of about 10%. Is this a good risk reward?
You are correct. However, this presentation brought into focus the $1.41 dilution from stock options. Many posters on this board have believed this was already reflected in the published NAV. However, if the proceeds of the exercises of options is used to buy back shares then this dilution is a little over $1. However, NAV is now viewed as about $19 not $20.,
Most importantly NOI is running only about $1.20 annualized. This will only support a marker value of about $12.00. There is considerable narrative about how this NOI will be increased .but no hard numbers. The market is craving a proforma income statement as to what the NOI might be, how it will be accomplished and a possible timetable.
NAV is about $19 after allowing for dilution from stock options. Their slide presentation shows $1.41 dilution from stock options. After using the proceeds from option exercised to repurchase shares the dilution is reduced to a little over a dollar per share.
The value of the stock will ultimately be driven by the NOI. To support $20 will require at least $2.00. of NOI. Presently NOI is at about $1.20 annualized. How that gap can be closed is the question and that is what is weighing on the stock price. .Management needs to spell that out.