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VMware, Inc. Message Board

EquityRich 38 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • equityrich equityrich 22 hours ago Flag

    Interesting that the BWLD outlook and eps growth stronger than Chipotle yet the multiple is just half of chipotle's. BWLD growing EPS at 30% and CMG just under this. PE at BWLD around 30 while CMG double that at 60. I think CMG has run too far too fast while BWLD is right around fair value based on PEG (Price to Earnings Growth).

    I think the only reason CMG is so high is the momentum players are all riding it up and they keep beating the analyst set estimates which is an arbitrary game. I've seen stocks double and triple on declining revenue and earnings for years as long as the company beats the ever lowered estimates each quarter. Interesting game.

  • equityrich equityrich Jul 24, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    Visa is smart. You should look at their buybacks of past and present authorization. Buyback is a better use for you, me and all shareholders. Furthermore you WANT lower prices when your company is buying back stock as Visa is. Read on Warren Buffett's philosophy on this which worked out extremely well for him. That said let's hope Visa plummets to 100! Anything lower is good for shareholders with a 5 plus year horizon

    Here is the bible on buybacks from Buffett

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow... opens at $226

    by bigideaportugal Jul 24, 2014 4:15 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 24, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    After hours is meaningless. Just shorts using low volume to paint the tape and make people think something was wrong.

    On the flip side as Buffett says if you are a long term holder and your company is buying back shares (as Visa is ) you want lower share prices. Why? Far more leverage on eps over the long term. Long term investors and the company should hope for lower prices. Plenty of cash (1.9B) left on the current authorization for buyback and a ton of cash on the balance sheet if they want to do more.

    Visa is a lifetime holding for me so from this perspective I encourage weak hands to sell so my company can take away their shares at much lower prices. I want to pay as little as possible. Fewer shares means higher ownership for me and higher stake on earnings and dividends in the future.

  • equityrich equityrich Jul 23, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    The interesting thing is many of my kids friends had larger screen phones and then went to an iphone 5 which is much smaller. They had no problem with the smaller phone.

    My point was that with the demographic from kids, teens, young adults and extending into the 20's the screen size may not be as important as people are thinking. Furthermore this is exactly what Tim Cook and Steve Jobs said themselves! It is the reason they never did a large iphone.

    They may ship one and show that yes there is some demand but it may not be 100% of the market. What if it is just 1/3 of the market? That means that anyone who wants and has a smaller iphone 4 or 5 may not upgrade. Trouble for apple. Just food for thought.

  • I just asked my teenager son and his friends (ages 15-16) if they wanted a larger iphone and they all said no. They didn't want some big screen to put in their pocket and carry around. 3 of them moved out of the S4 and went to iphone 5S and liked the smaller size better. Their eyes are all 20/20 so they don't seem to be bothered by the small screen at all. Most even keep their screens so dim I can barely see it but they have no issue.

    Could the large screen phone not be a huge success? Small data point from my son and friends but it is telling and not at all what i expected. My eyes are not great and I want the larger screen. Maybe a bifurcation between young and old.

  • Reply to

    Homerun BEAT!!!

    by certainprft Jul 22, 2014 4:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 22, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Solid beat all around plus positive comments from CEO on trends. The turn is finally here.

  • equityrich equityrich Jul 21, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    I'd pay up to $100 for a chipotle burrito.

  • Reply to


    by robynrokn Jul 21, 2014 4:12 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 21, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    Technically the comp includes about a 6% price increase so the comp look through is actually 11%. In other words without a price increase next year when they lap this quarter and assuming they can only keep up the pace it will be 11%. If they can't keep the pace it will be lower than 11%. Still anything over a few percentage is good for a restuarant although cmg's valuation still so high they need to do better and be in that 15% range to sustain this stock price.

  • Reply to

    There are only 2 things we know for sure

    by hbass1952 Jul 18, 2014 10:18 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 18, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    You have to understand Wall Streets conflict of interest. Their business model is getting you to buy and sell and buy again then sell again. The more the better. How to do this? Upgrades, downgrades and upgrades again. I'm sure you have seen the ill timed calls by analysts who downgrade at the bottom and upgrade at the top. This is what happens most of the time because they are all late to the price moves.

    However never confuse short term price moves and broker calls with anything that has to do with a company's performance. they are 2 separate things. Brokerage firms need you to keep buying and selling over and over. Stop doing that and they are out of a job. Watch for their methods and tactics to get you to do these actions. Your best bet is to take no action.

    KORS is fine. They have been blowing the doors off and continue to eat up share from competitors and grow in the areas which they offer products. Earnings will settle this and you will see the guys that just downgraded it move to upgrades, raise price targets and do so after the stock runs up to new highs. They won't comment on their recent horrific calls this week and just how wrong they were. They will look forward and expect the sheep to follow and chase the stock back up right after they just sold it.

    Don't get complacent because I guarantee they will play the game with KORS over and over the same as they do with all stocks for the last 100 years. The good part is knowing this, you can take advantage of it and make a ton of money. I have.

  • Reply to

    Rumors of KORS Demise...

    by qofaslave69 Jul 17, 2014 12:24 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 17, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    Michael Kors rises after analyst sees less discounting than peers
    Shares of accessories designer Michael Kors (KORS) are slightly higher in a down market after Credit Suisse said that the company's brands are less likely to be on sale than those of its competitors. WHAT'S NEW: In a note to investors, Credit Suisse analyst Christian Buss wrote that Michael Kors' products are "one of the least discounted brands available during the seasonal clearance period ahead of early fall shipments." At mid-tier department stores, 25% of Michael Kors' products are on sale with an average markdown of 27%, Buss reported. On average, 35% of the products of the company's peers are on sale, at an average discount of 27%, the analyst stated. Additionally, Michael Kors' channel strategy provides it with multiple advantages, including brand integrity and limits on markdowns, Buss believes. Buss wrote that he was "compelled" by the recent drop in the stock, and reiterated a $107 price target and Outperform rating on the shares. WHAT'S NOTABLE: Also upbeat on Michael Kors today was research firm Canaccord. Markdowns of the company's products are not any larger than last year, and concerns about large discounts on its products have created a buying opportunity, the firm contended. Canaccord continues to believe that the accessories maker has strong long-term growth opportunities, and it kept a $123 price target and Buy rating on the shares. PRICE ACTION: In mid-afternoon trading, Michael Kors gained 2% to $83. Two of the company's competitors, Coach (COH) and Kate Spade (KATE), rose fractionally.

  • Reply to


    by jimrhicks20 Jul 15, 2014 3:22 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 15, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    That is not why they do it. They make money when clients TRADE. So the key is to take them out if they are long (a trade) and then get them back in after when the stock is going higher (another trade). they will do it all the way up to record highs year after year, quarter after quarter. This is how Wall Street works and makes money.

    If you were a broker the ONLY way you put food on the table is to make a trade with a client. You need your analysts to help you because if you as a broker don't make money they don't have a job either. The game is simple. Wall Street brokerages are not in business to make you money. They are in business to make themselves money by taking some of your money

  • equityrich equityrich Jul 15, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    Nothing has changed with KORS in the last month other than the stock price. the company is fine. Revenue and profit growth are all fine. We'll see another strong report and raise. Shorts will be smoked. Longs will be rewarded. KORS reports early august. I'm long and remain unconcerned about the price action other than using it as an opportunity to add to my position

  • Reply to

    VERY favorable risk-reward for longs

    by tonyhenry260860 Jul 15, 2014 3:10 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 15, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    No. Probably over 30%. 24% is conservative. Plenty of runway left for Kors over the next decade. Much bigger markets too then Coach ever operated in (clothes, accessories, shoes, etc)

  • Reply to


    by pigsuckingshortmaggot Jul 15, 2014 7:49 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 15, 2014 8:37 AM Flag

    All we need to know is how brokerages make money. They need u to buy and to sell. Get in. Get out. Get back in. Get out. Repeat over and over

    KORS is fine. Only thing on sale is the stock thanks to the Wall Street machine in sell mode soon to be followed by buy mode

  • equityrich equityrich Jul 14, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    Don't worry. Soon enough reality overtakes perception. Kors headed to $120 to $150 which is simply conservative fair value based on 2015 estimates. For the moment day traders, technical traders, algobots all playing around. It doesn't last long so get ahead of them before the runup. They chased it down and they will all be chasing it back up. Stock is a double in 12 to 18 months from here.

  • equityrich equityrich Jul 14, 2014 2:42 PM Flag are 100% wrong. Stock is going to 120 before the end of the year. Earnings for 2015 will be $4.00 to $5.00 range. Kors growing over 30% per year. 30 multiple on 4 gets you 120/share. 30 multiple on $5.00 will be $150/share.

    You may want to cover your short or you are about to lose 100% of your investment. Sorry.

  • Reply to

    dropped over 10% in a few weeks

    by therealguzz Jul 14, 2014 2:17 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 14, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    Stocks don't need news to move up or down. Day traders. Algo traders. Chart traders. Stocks will waffle under, at or over fair value. With a forward PE of 18 and a growth rate well north of 30% KORS is by any metric trading under its value. Over the short term traders and algos don't care about any of this. They only care about where the stock is in 2 minutes or a day. This is why it is easy to make money in the market. You can take advantage of this dislocation. Eventually values catch up. Witness Apple under 400 and now almost 700 split adjusted. It was a matter of time.

    Kors should be trading about $120/share just to be at fair value. It will get there and the short termers will jump on the train once it starts headed in that direction and help to push it there and possibly well beyond.

  • Reply to

    Buyout any day! JNJ will pay $650...

    by certainprft Jun 30, 2014 10:43 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jun 30, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Very dangerous to be short in ISRG. A buyout could indeed happen from JNJ and a few others. One morning they wake up and the bid is in and it's all over for them. No getting out

  • equityrich equityrich Jun 27, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Dont' worry. Nobody is listening to him or this board. This board is lucky to see 100 bodies a day

  • equityrich equityrich Jun 24, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    Brokerage firms make money off of trading volume. If this is a cash deal the brokers get nothing. They know this so better to get something and try to force their clients to trade OUT of LO and trade yet again INTO something else. 2 trades. $$$$. Cash buyout means NO $$$

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