Shire plc Message Board

I'm confused, Which way do you think they are manipulating?

EP

When Pru says sell, I buy. Watch. They'll say buy after it crosses $62.

EP

Anybody know where I can see the FDA sited ad? Also, when is Rolf going to see how small minded the boys in Kentucky are?

EP

I agree with you. I also thank you for the info
on the options. I would agree they were probably a
"buy". I have invested many times using the "follow the
options" theory. It has proven to be right more than it's
been wrong. I did get burned once on RPC that way,
though. Good luck. Still long SHPGY.

EP

How do you know they were a �buy�? Someone could
have written the puts. I do agree that sometimes
options can signal that somebody knows something we
don't. Many times, though, I have noticed that a stock
closes, on options expiration day, at the strike price
which yields the least payout to the greatest number of
contracts. Maybe this means the stock will be around $55 on
the third Friday of October. Anybody have any other
thoughts?

EP

I understand your position. I held it as well.
But this stock has been very high for quite a while.
I still think Rolf should fire those VPs in
Kentucky. I don�t think they run their business like a true
pharma company, and I still don�t like a lot of their
management decisions, but I cannot deny the stock price. You
may be correct in assuming that Shire may have
trouble meeting Q3+ numbers. IMNSHO, Shire won�t EARN
it�s stock price, it will AQUIRE it. I don�t have
faith in Shire�s management below Rolf. From Rolf
above, I think they are quite shrewd. They will acquire
another company soon. The big question regarding a
decrease in stock price will be �How will the acquisition
effect the stock short term?�. I think we may see some
buying opportunities during the arbitrage period. I only
wish I knew who they are buying. Anybody got any
ideas?

EP

Thanks.
Shire definitely seems to have more
friends than Roberts ever did. As an old RPC long, I
wished for this kind of support from institutions for
Roberts, but we never got it. Shire�s big investors appear
to be smart enough to see the big picture.

EP

I have to agree, although I'd like to see someone
buy Shire, the most likely scenario would be that
Shire would acquire another company. My friends tell me
that is exactly what is going on now. Rolf is looking
at a few companies, but when word gets out that
Shire is looking at them, their stock price goes up and
Shire backs off. I do think it seems inevitable that
Rolf will succeed in another �Paper� �Merger�
eventually. QUESTION: I don�t fully understand what you meant
by �The current buyers now are not predators but
friends.� Could you elaborate?

EP

I can only hope you're right.

EP

Not much. One says this company will be
sold/merged. The others all are mostly quiet. All of them
voice their satisfaction with the stock price. They
don't love management, but they think that will be
resolved in time either through merger, or forced changes
in management. Rolf would prefer to grow the company
and not sell, the board however, I believe, will do
what's best for the shareholders. Although I have voiced
dissatisfaction with management (those under Rolf), I do think
the guys at the top (above Rolf) are GREAT at
increasing shareholder value. That fact can't de be
disputed. How they�ve raised the stock to this level, is
somewhat puzzling to me, but they�ve done it, and I�m a
believer.

EP

Honestly, I really don't know anything. I have
been told by people inside that sales on the Roberts
products are falling off to a measurable degree. Is this
true? I don't know, but I personally believe my
sources. Will it be seen in Q2 numbers? I don't know.
Please remember, I am long SHPGY. This company has great
potential. I have a negative slant against management.
SHPGY, if run properly, could be a great holing. If run
poorly, SHPGY will be a great aquisition for a better,
bigger fish.

EP

I guess this could be a good thing for us SHPGY
shareholders, if the Shire-Richwood DMs really do adhere to
these standards. If they don't, it would be a terribly
unfair thing to ask of these RPC DMs. And probably
actionable. Let's hope no sales reps take note of the time
their DMs (the new ones or the Shire ones) actually
spend with them. If it's closer to the Roberts way than
the Shire-Richwood way, our departing DMs could have
a valid complaint.

Aside from this issue, I
am quite impressed with the stock price 5 months
into the merger.

EP

Maybe I am missinformed. Can anyone shed any light on this rumor?

EP

Don't lump me in with your "Shorts". I have never
been short RPC or SHP or SHPGY. I am long SHPGY, but
cautiously so. What tictoctoe says is quite true. I don't
know if it will have any negative impact on the stock,
but it is something we need to be aware of. This
company faces a real challenge for the next year. I am
hopeful that Rolf et al will reach out and get the help
they need before they get buried. This aqusition was
much more complicated than Shire expected. It cannot
be micro-managed. With the right people on-board,
and if those people are given the power to get things
done, this company will succeed and the stock price
will be even higher than has been predicted. I'm
holding my breath, and trying to stay positive.

EP

How did you arrive at these numbers "I have been
looking at the previous 4 quarters sales figures and they
were $88m, $93m, $102m and $102m respectively." Are
they for RPC or Shire, or both, do they include Shire
UK (Globally) or just Shire US operations?

EP

It's my understanding that Shire has set up a
bonus or stock (option?) plan for the sales force and
that it is generous, but tied to a longer time frame.
Sales people only get the money if they are still
employees at a later date (Maybe one year later?. Although
I don't know the specifics, it sounds like a good
plan to me. If it helps keep the sales force in place,
I like it.

EP