Will Magyar survive? Can it go on and absorb the next round of mortgage debt collapses and a 2nd recession?
Who's depositing hard earned $$ in Magyar and why?
This is a life and death struggle for VLGC. Without Aclara's cash, the company will become insolvent in short order.........or be forced to somehow convince someone to invest more money in the company.
I believe that VLGC would merge with any company carrying a cash balance, I just don't understand why Aclara is interested. Is Aclara's future potential that dim?
Will the merger be approved?
We will see.
Acla�s trading at (1.7 x Vlgc�s price) + 50 cents���.i.e. (1.7 x $2.20) + $0.50 = $4.24
This is $0.35 cents too low! Acla should be trading at $4.58 versus $2.20 for Vlgc.
The fair value based on Vlgc�s price should be (Vlgc price + 50 cents) x 1.7���ie. ($2.20 + $0.50) x 1.7 = $4.58
Acla shareholders get 1.7 shares of Vlgc for each Acla share AND get 1.7 �rights� to $0.50 distributions should Vlgc�s share price trade too low.
vlgc offers 1.7 shares for each acla share? So, at today's price, they're offering less than acla's cash book value per share and far less than what we can sell acla shares for today in the open market.
This is sad.
It's very unlikely that Acla shareholders will approve this merger. The lower our suitor's shares go, the more unlikely this becomes.
Acla can be patient and wait for a fair price. Vlgc can't wait.
I wonder what Vlgc's backup plan is? How long can Vlgc survive without a cash infusion?
...Italy, Germany, The Netherlands, and probably Switzerland are now in recession (and the Swiss are already down to a zero interest rate). Things will get worse before they get better. The American recovery may be at hand, but there is a wide gap between the reality and the pipe dream definition. Even if the US maintains positive GDP growth, it will be slow growth (I don't think economists dispute this reality). This coupled with a higher 10 year bond rate makes today's stock market look fat....very fat.
So, even though slow growth equals "recovery", those invested today will lose as newly created bubble-prices deflate.
It will be like Deja Vu all over again.
It's unlikely that the move into cyclicals we are now seeing will prove to be the right move.
Then again, who really knows for sure?
My money says the US and world economies are headed for stagnation......very slow growth......continued unemployment (even as companies report earnings)....zero pricing power......and all the rest.
Try not to forget all of those pension obligations out there and the social security time bomb. The US simply cannot meet its unrecorded obligations and they are coming due within the next decade. Hell, even CNH is expecting to earn 9% on its pension assets over this period! This will never happen and CNH will continue to bleed money it can't replace.
DE and CAT earnings are driving cnh?
The earnings details behind these two spell trouble for CNH while CNH continues to dilute minority shareholder interest.
Even the Fed is losing the battle over LT interest rates as we watch them climb. The below 40hp product demand should dry up now. Ag demand is down and will stay down.
Is the future really paved with gold?
Most of cat's profit came from the double-digit decline in the US dollar. This resulted in double digit sales increases overseas.
The US profit picture has been engineered by the Fed and is not long lasting.
CNH measures its sales and profits in Euros.
Sadly, the exact opposite exchange effect will take place for this company. Earnings in Euros will be a disaster.
Anyone like to bet?
Actually, I'm quite sure he's a Long. He appears to have low aptitude and his messages, mostly paraphrased from other authors suggests an unstable personality with some real self-esteem issues.
I'm quite qualified to make this judgment.
I must say, you Longs are the most paranoid group on Earth. Another sugarr alias you say?
Is every short a sugarr alias? Yes, they all are.
Your reasoning power; your ability to rationally judge is non-existent.
Your post, 8791, is my favorite. However, you don't address the composition of the 15,957k shares outstanding at 12/31/93. Yes, since the end of '93, shares have more than doubled by issuing stock to employees. But, what percentage of the total outstanding stock today is from option shares exercised?
I challenge anyone to go back beyond 1993 and analyze the composition of the 12/31/93 balance, I'll bet you'll find that the majority of this figure, too, is employee payoffs.
In conclusion, Avid outstanding shares are principally the result of a management scheme to enrich themselves at the expense of shareholders.
Is there any other way to view it?
All this article points out is that the stock price has moved up dramatically. The article is targeted to investors who judge a company's worth/value based on stock price moves and nothing else. This is why there is no detailed, specific, tangible, verifiable justification for the price move, only general comments suggesting that in the future Avid's streets will be paved with gold.
This is a classic psychological conditioning ploy used by analysts to enforce "social proof".
If you don't know what I mean by "social proof", you are probably an Avid fan.
Good luck to all Longs.
You should keep this in mind too. According to the Longs here, there are only a handfull of genuine posters, all of the rest are sugarr_daddy aliases, me included.
Basically, if you subtract the sugarr aliases, all that's left are the famous Numskulls.
Also, The Numskulls never post numbers or address any pertinent financial post with a counter argument. Ironically, the thought here is that this pro-Avid group is actually a herd of company affiliated aliases being used to pump up the stock price. I believe this is a credible view as it is clear from reviewing Avid's financials that they are "managed" and "massaged" to appear better than they really are. Press releases abound too - just too many. My question is, why would a management team so dedicated to the pump & dump mentality stop there?
Just my opinion.