There is something fishy going on. I think this stock will recover and has good long term upside however yesterdays upward movement on huge volume with that news is nonsense. There is no short terrn driver t o make someone rush in and buy so suddenly. I am waiting to stat buying for abetter entry point. The last thing we need is a bunch of people buying on momentum and getting in and out. Be patient and let the news settle in and then buy and hold for 18 months and you have a double from $10. Something about yesterday does not add up.
Steve, Glad I resisted he temptation to buy before earnings. Stock will take a hit Monday and I will watch closely and start establishing a position in the coming weeks.No need to rush let the people who are not convinced this is along term hold out. I think it settles between 9-10 and then I pounce. .
The market sucked and it held pretty well .Like I said earlier it looks like we are past a ore announcement of an earnings miss so hopefully we have seen the bottom.
This stock has stabilized at $12 even with a #$%$ market. I think we are now pas the point of a pre-announcement, it would have been this week. So maybe the earnings have stabilized. I am tempted t pickup some here but have been burned a few times the last year. Will wait until earnings are released.
Look at this chart and realize they have missed earnings 4 straight quarters. I think the company is fundamentally sound and hopefully will get their act together but to buy it on the way down is insane. Make them show things are recovering and more importantly let's hear that it has bottomed and then have a cohesive message from them on how they will forecast and deliver. The factories they have are great when things are good but factory utilization will kill them until at lest mid year 2015. I would not touch this until after earnings.
It does not look good. At least they have not pre announced so maybe they numbers are just disappointing and not a catastrophe. Franchise still intact so they can recover but imho will go to single digits before any recovery. Will not buy until I see numbers that tell me they are out of this free fall.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Really? How about 1 quarter where they come close to meeting estimates and don't vomit allover themselves during a conference call before you staart talking about upside potential?
Even though these guys don't give guidance with their track record you don't want a press release saying hey will update the Q. The last 3 quarters and maybe even 4 they have pre announced bad quarters. They make an announce that they will have a call which shakes the stock, then they have a Cc saying they missed which crushes the stock, then 3 weeks later they release horrible numbers which whack it again. I'd prefer a little silence this time around meaning they are on track.. Butt they will have to pre-announce either good or bad numbers that are out of the range of expectations because they have firmly established that as their policy. Factory utilization scares me until we have a few good quarters so I fear even an increase in revenues may not make i to the bottom line. I firmly believe this stock sees 10 before it sees 15. I will watch closely and add when appropriate. Would not touch it until I see evidence the worst is over. These guys have to re earn my trust back.
Sorry Steve, Have been really busy with a company I am running and have not rad the message boards in while. I dumped 80% of my AVD at an average price of $17 and took a substantial loss after a solid decade of making money here. Watching them miss revs and earnings Q after Q is pathetic. I think it goes to $11-$12 and then I believe it is an excellent take over candidate for a large Ag company or fund. Don't believe this management team can execute.
I think the stock has over corrected and is a good value here but that is just the start. I think after the 4th and 1st Q's are digested this stock starts growing again both revenue and earnings wise. The liquid products I don't believe are factored in yet and the franchise is solid. I also believe that we may see similar agriculture divisions spun out soon from other companies that will change the value equation here. I believe a purchase here has an excellent risk/reward proposition.
There obviously is no buyout offer causing the stock to drop. However Chemtura's ag division is being actively shopped and rumor has it there are multiple suitors. That division is very similar in size and scope to AVD and I would expect whoever loses out on that to look at AVD. I use to think this stock had a $50 minimum of valuation if run correctly. However with the recent performance of management I would welcome a buy out at $35.
The present management team is a combination of naive, inept, and arrogant. Very bad mix.
Steve, I was just thinking the same thing. If it is indeed a lousy report then I am going to unwind the remainder of my position. Not because I don't think the company will do well the next 18 months but because management is clueless.
That we broke through significant resistance at $26.40, this should now go back to $29-$30 pending further positive developments. Still extremely undervalued because it is well run and solid. However still poorly promoted and no clue how the investment community operates.
Based on nothing because every stock fluctuates a few percent here and there. Is this supposed to go straight up without a single dip her or there? Get a clue.
Have a massive position here and have had it since the 44 level. I expect this to hit the low 30's and get taken out at $40.
Good summary, a huge plus was Brent Rystrom from Feltl getting back into a buy mode from Hold or neutral and putting a $30 price target on his revision today. Make no mistake he is the ax on this stock and the stock will follow that revised number.
Truer words have never been spoken. And I can go on the record as the larges individual shareholder of AVD (outside of institutions or Eric himself) that I have begged him for 5 years to do exactly that. At annual shareholder meetings, over the phone, and in emails.