Actually, His topic caused some of the best posts I've seen regarding the stock. And why go elsewhere:? This is exactly what message boards are for. To share information and opinions on securities. Spur the conversation.
This was in no way a "bash" thread. Known Hasch for quite a while.. One of the most straight up individuals on any board I frequent.
High level #'s for this quarter using the mid point of guidance for revenue and GP% and opex constant with last quarter.... Takes no additional synergies into account if there are more remaining.
Hasch, these would equate to pure GAAP #'s... Looking better.
GP % 55%
Gross Profit $50,600,000
total Op-ex $47,613,000
Shares outstanding 53,360,000
Hasch, not done looking into this... Admittedly more topside on my DD currently. Need to dive deeper, that includes the last few earnings releases and CC info.
Went to write this a couple times... MXL is tough to get thoughts wrapped around:
No debt low float. Both a positive.
Revenues set to double. Definitely a positive.
The acquisition of entropic is driving this, however; both companies had poor earnings score cards in the past. The Q2 report was not very encouraging. While the report mentioned "synergies" of ~20M they expect to realize it is not enough to offset the high opex the company seems to have.
In Q2, sales increased ~$35M… Cost of sales increased $33m. Of that 14.5M was related to amortization due to purchase accounting. OK that will drop off. In addition, Overall opex increased 33M over Q1. $11M of that was restructuring (one time) charges. Removing both item still leaves a $6m net Loss for Q2.
I don’t see the management here being able to make the changes to go positive on net income. The $10m in option expense for the 1st 6 months of 2015 is also a bit much.
Numbers simply do not add up to the target $16 price. Might be a bit biased here, but Chardan also recommended a “buy” in early June….
What is the bull case here? I cannot see it.
BTW Hasch, that is the potential I see here... Short term beat down price, reduced entry cost, and a recovery to more normal valuation.
FIFO is a term some will latch onto... It can lead to larger "swings" short term, but in the long run, it all evens out. LIFO would never be accepted, values the inventory on hand far below (usually) the market and is not representative. Actual average would be what I would expect.
CVRR does seem to trade in sympathy with the exploration and production companies.
Agreed, although share price has dipped in sympathy with the E&P sector so over the next couple years I can see it getting back to $25/share to stabilize the yield at 10%. From ~18.50, that is ~ a 35% return on share price and 14% dividend assuming an annual dividend of ~$2.65 per year. The last 2 trailing sets of 4 quarterly dividends are $2.65 and $2.69.
Combine the dividend (dripped) and potential share price appreciation, you are looking at a double within 3-4 years. Not everything has to be a sexy growth stock to achieve desired results.
Hasch. Good thoughts.... Currently I am in the lube and fuel distribution business. A few comments:
+ Recent 13% increase in oil prices troubling for a refinery.......even if hedged to oil prices (hedging just delays the inevitable margin squeeze if prices keep rising.......or rise and hold). This is a bit surprising as China, India and even Japan has reported lower than desireable economic growth....and these recent increases in oil futures could be short covering
Refineries, distribution, and retail make their best GP during times of rising and falling prices... Pump prices are slow to drop with decreases... Look at the December-January gas prices compared to todays. Oil hit a six year low recently, My pump prices were .20-.30 higher than they were then. Pump prices jump immediately when there are increases....
Q2 earnings, although only 1 data point, do confirm this. No telling performance if hedging is taking place and they judge it wrong.
+ Dividend of over 14% unsustainable as payout ratio is over 200% (or profits)
Agreed, the Yahoo reported dividend is not Accurate. They took the last dividend and multiplied by 4. The actual dividend policy is variable based on current quarter performance. last 4 quarters total divy = 2.65. Cash flow supports the dividend, but not at last quarters .92.
CVRR also had the fire at Coffeyville Summer of 2014 That skewed the earnings results.
I think the price of bounty went up... Lots of coffee drank at the wrong time. Just before the laugh. It's in short supply now!!!
Looks promising. Thanks for bring it up.
Funny thing is, what I just wrote, sounds like an automated reply to a spam message...
Need to do a bit more dd and we'll see. Heres's one for you. CVRR Worth a look. As you posted elsewhere regarding this stock... I'm on the cvrr mb a bit. If there is anything to say, we can there.