Nice idea and the first 2 Batman games from TW were fantastic. Getting worried that they may be rushing/forcing titles into an annual rotation and might hurt the franchise. ironic as most of us complain that TTWO doesn't get games out fast enough, isn't it? Can't someone find the happy medium?
Chief, I read that and saw the no dilution comment and you know we have talked this to death here but maybe he was referring to net after the old debt is redeemed. Who knows? But what about the Xbox One? I think the new hardware could sway a few folks to not buy games, even the mighty GTA, to save for the new hardware whether PS or One. I don't think that is a terrible argument, but wasn't sure what your point was on it. Did I miss something?
Elephant no idea what you are talking about since comparing BI and Mario are completely apples and oranges. Different audience, game type, and machines. And RDR? What about that game was a mess? The reviews were off the charts, believe it one several awards including GOTY from some groups, and yes I played it myself and was one of the best games I have ever seen or played and I have been doing this for 30 years. And the article boils it down to 20-25m AAA purchasers. Sure those are great numbers if GTA sells to them all, and maybe they will, but that will get them in the area of record territory and the hype is already heating up with comments like it will be unbelievable and blow everyone away shatter records, etc. Losing perspective quickly IMO. They are going up against new machines coming around the corner. Saints Row coming the month prior. Yes GTA is the King Daddy but there is only so much time and money people can and will spend. I don't think it will be anything of a flop by a long shot, just don't think it will be the moon shot many others are believing and then some.
Well, I disagree and you didn't address the number of gamers issue. I wasn't and am not as concerned with what you have a problem with and I think his gamer numbers are worthwhile and quite well explain the long downturn in NPD sales numbers, even if you try and put some of the downfall on digital which is not picked up by NPD other than in summary form.
Well as much as I call myself negative so often it is more to appease others but I think of myself more as conservative and realistic. BTW, I am long and will trade long into GTA but probably out before release or very shortly afterward. As far as the naked dancing, no worries there. The neighbors and the cops have you covered, and try to keep me covered too.
Read the article at Tech Crunch from yesterday called What Games Are. GTA might not set records, as I have been saying for some time. That article really puts it together well and explains with numbers, why there really has not been any true growth in number of gamers for some time. I won't waste your time explaining it here since you can read it yourself. It's pretty straight forward and many will doubt it and say why it is incorrect, but I doubt they will articulate themselves as well as the author of that article does.
Definitely will need to be accounted for and there are usually two EPS numbers, not only GAAP vs non GAAP but EPS and fully diluted EPS which requires the assumption of ALL possible dilution. Really should only be a technical/temporary issue, but who knows what the market will do with it?
I envy your NyQuil. Love that stuff! Yes this Q will be a bust. We reported BI last Q. There will be some reorder this current Q ending 6/30, but I would not expect much. Recall the guidance was dismal. Way below estimates top and bottom line, but mostly ignored since the year guidance was as expected, great. The old debt isn't retired until 8/29/13 and the new debt will be in place this week, so there will definitely be overlap which should be understood but who know how the market will react to potentially worse numbers than forecast, if that happens? Upside is that this all unwinds itself in the following Q ending 9/30 so the dilution goes down significantly Q over Q and we get that big game coming out too. New Barbie Horse Adventures.
I thought it would increase net dilution but I wasn't doing any math other than reading that they would spend 166 to redeem the old debt, with 250 of new debt. I know the terms are better, but assumed it was still net dilutive. Other possible Z bomb, since this new debt and old debt will be open this quarter, they might have to count ALL possible conversions this quarter when they report fully diluted EPS. Only thing I am not sure about is that I believe they sent a letter about redemption to current debt holders last week. That might get them out of it, but I am not sure, as it will still be outstanding at 6/30. Quarter was already supposed to be a bust, so why no throw this in too. Also makes the following quarter look even better when they actually finally redeem the old debt, coupled with sales of a new game in that quarter, I forget the title...
One more thing I forgot to mention, if this deal is even slightly net negative with respect to dilution, meaning more shares in total, hypothetically able to be converted, that certainly knocks down current EPS, just the opposite we were expecting during the rumor of simple redemption. And another thing I can tell everyone for certain, it doesn't matter who gets to control conversion, price, etc. accounting rules dictate that when you report fully diluted info, it is a requirement that you assume all possible dilution, without exception.
Spec, I for one certainly don't know what to make of it. I know many on this board are well versed. My specialty is accounting. I know some of you are law. I don't care for MF at all and know that anyone can put stuff on the Web, but I have to believe he has some clue about what he is talking about. Also, I know you say sometimes even the market gets it wrong, but I don't think that is very often. Finally, one thing he said certainly makes sense and that is that for TTWO to get a 1% rate, something else has to be very tempting about the deal and that must be the conversion rate.
Rusty, I might be there with you too. Haven't been on Sony since PS1 but seriously considering the switch. To be quite honest, the price difference doesn't make or break me and I really don't care too much about the DRM , but I do sell my games on Glyde now which would be out of the question on the new xbox one, so maybe it matters a little. I will decide as the time gets closer and with plenty of good games still coming for 360 probably won't end up getting either until after launch. Also a first since I have owned pretty much every system at launch back to Genesis days.
No idea here either but think there is still some confusion around Sony's DRM stance. They did somewhat clearly say at E3 they won't use it or do it or something to that effect. In Feb they said the tech is in there if pubs/devs want to make use of it. There have been several articles since E3 stating that this is still the case and Sony is almost flat out lying, at least being very deceptive about the issue. I guess the hope is for an outcome where MSFT backs down (doubt it) and Sony disables the tech (doubt that too).