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SPDR S&P 500 Message Board

IBDMAN15 93 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 10:44 AM Member since: Mar 10, 1999
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  • The Fed's low interest rates could bring a "scary" 50-60 percent market correction, technical analyst Abigail Doolittle told CNBC on Wednesday.

    "Unfortunately, I think it could come on a crash similar to what happened in 2007," the founder of Peak Theories Research said on "Squawk Box" a day after the S&P 500 closed above the 2,000 level for the first time ever. "It's tough to know what the exact catalyst will be. But that's the very nature of that kind of selloff. They start slowly and then happen very suddenly."

    Read More› Post-S&P milestone, Street looks for next catalyst

    Doolittle pointed to a 20-year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. "When we take the long-term chart of the Dow ... we see that it's trading in a multiyear trading range, hitting up on resistance. … What makes this so important [is] you can see that the entire bull market trend over the past five years has started to reverse."

    so do we believe a Liberal Professor Siegel or a seasoned technician?
    this stock market bubble pops before the mid terms

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Churning - two consecutive days

    by ibdman15 Aug 26, 2014 4:23 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Aug 26, 2014 10:54 PM Flag

    its official, today was a stalling/distribution day on the SPX and NYSE Comp yesterday was a stalling Day on the NDQ. So churning/stalling whatever we want to call it. Not a whole lot different than the Oct 2007 top except this top has occurred in August. the normal business cycle will play out. It's over. everyone is "all in" the US stock market with margin accounts and HELOC's. the dominos are about to fall. R2K already has topped well off its 1210 high. (IWM $121) there's a boom and bust cycle and just because the interest rates are artificially low there will be a BUST unlike any bust we have ever seen. Recession/depression on immediate horizon. Has anyone checked the vacation home market along the Atlantic Coast? almost zero sales. worst second home housing market ever. Ask any real estate person in a place like Ocean City MD, Bethany Beach DE or Sea Isle City New Jersey. Could it be because everyone only thinks they can make money buying stocks and stock indexes since the FED has their Back or is it because they have NO MONEY?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It's over. Professor Jeremy Siegel is wrong!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    The Stock Market Top is In! and here is why....

    by ibdman15 Aug 23, 2014 8:34 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Aug 23, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    Foreigners Dump Record Amount of US Securities, But Who the Heck Is Still Buying?

    by Wolf Richter • August 18, 2014

    The Treasury Department cobbles together data it receives from financial institutions on capital flows into and out of the US. It’s trying to figure out which foreign entity owns what US financial assets. Then on a monthly basis, it issues its Treasury International Capital (TIC) report. And this time, the report for June – released on Friday when everyone was on vacation or getting ready to head out of town for the weekend, and when no one was supposed to pay attention – was a zinger: US net capital outflows soared to $153.5 billion, the largest ever recorded.

    So who the heck did all the selling?

    Nope, it was not the category of “major foreign holders of Treasury Securities” that did the wholesale dumping. Given the #$%$ yields, they had all the reasons in the world to sell Treasuries. But they were adding to their positions. While there were some ups and downs, the grand total of Treasuries owned by these “major foreign holders” rose by $37 billion from May to $6.013 trillion. The most ever. Since June last year, the amount that the US government is in hock to overseas entities has jumped by $418 billion.

    The two largest holders, China and Japan sold a little. Usual suspect Russia, whose Treasury holdings had been plunging earlier this year, actually added $2.5 billion. And Belgium, the 3rd largest holder of Treasuries added some as well. Treasury holdings in Belgium had been soaring since September.

    So if everyone is selling US assets, who is buying on this low Volume at this next generational Top?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Aug 23, 2014 8:38 AM Flag

    and the poor saps with the average $15 k of CC debt are paying 20% interest....idiots, yet the banks borrow at 1/4 of 1%!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • While IBD is widely Bullish in their latest Big Picture Column, they fail to point out that the a/d ratings are:
    SPX D-
    NDQ D-
    Dow E
    IWM Small caps E
    and that the volume on the latest rally has been decelerating across the board on each day the market has advanced since the FTD. Don't pay attention to the folks that say the SPX forward PE is just 15 and trailing is 17.4. What is the PE for the R2K counting the companies that are losing money each and every quarter? It's north of 80. Buy that IWM with both hands but eventually it will drop from $115 to below 60 in a very short period of time.The market is about to crash. better get out. If everything was so rosy, the A/D ratings would at least IMPROVE to C or better. Ideally B and A shows accumulation by Institutions not D- and E. So who is buying? perhaps folks on margin and with HELOC's that will lose their house when the market crashes again and the margin calls pour in. examine the monthly Megaphone pattern on the Indexes too. ultimately the indexes take out the 2003 and 2009 lows. its not a matter of "if" the market crashes but "when". Be prepared. a 911 type or worse event could be the catalyst. and when the market crashes 25-30% in a week and you don't sell then it could be down 50-60% when you do sell. why not sell Monday morning and sit in cash for a few months and let the crash unfold without you in the market let the pension funds and Institutional investors take it on the chin.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • what if they show up? Those peaceful Muslims can blend in. They already stated they were going to fly their flag at the WH real soon. What can we do? They have the USA's weapons now since taking over Iraq and Syria. And Israel will get nuked by those nuts so it's not a matter of "if" but "when". and you never know, Obama may make a grave mistake while golfing at the Vineyard and bomb Moscow ushering in WW3.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Initial break of 50 dma in March off the generational peak. three rallies above the 50 dma. This is the third and final rally. when the neckline around $108 IWM or $1,080 R2K breaks, watch out below. Small caps trailing and forward PE's at record highs. Profit Margin's have already peaked and sales are decelerating across all stock caps.

    look at the volume on up days versus down days. Note IWM a/d rating still at E, meaning huge liquidation taking place by the Institutional Investors. significant crash lies ahead.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Better look at the price and volume action of this index. Huge volume on the selloffs of the past few weeks and decelerating well-below average on the advances. Now the 200 dma is heading down along with the 50 and death cross within two weeks. A/D rating still E. Major institutional selling of small caps. they will lead the market into the abyss. Keep listening to the CNBC PUMPERS.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The NDQ FTD was up only 1%. Historically FTD's need to advance 1.5-2.0% per IBD. THEY CONSTANTLY CHANGE THEIR OWN RULES. Expect the market to turn tail and quickly succumb back into a deep correction or full blown bear market Sit in cash because this FTD like the one in late sept 2008 is simply a head fake.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Russell and NYSE comp not healthy

    by ibdman15 Aug 13, 2014 4:29 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Aug 13, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    iWM that is. Or 1000 and 90 on r2k index itself. Notice the greatly declining V on the IWM advance today.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • R2k mired below its 200 dma and both the 50 and 200 lines are now declining. NYSE comp well below decking 50 DNA. Death cross by August 30 on r2 k cause that forward PE OF 90 is pretty hefty. When you figure PE on an index one must include negative earnings and one time expenses too. In that case higher than 90 PE, major topping process. St target on wimp is 100 then 90. Better position accordingly.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Has that ever happened? Uncharted waters. Massive downdraft!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • 1200 head or double top neck line 1100, current 1133, target 1000. why hold for that carnage? Stop with the hope and greed. Cash out and pay back you HELOCs and margin accounts before its too late and you end up like Robin Williams.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Aug 13, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    what was this pumper Doll saying in October/November 2007 and Sept/Oct 2008? GS was saying everything was great and to hold everything. so folks lost 50%. It's time for a massive BEAR market

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Market in Correction raise Cash. beginning of a 12 month Bear market with a 40-60% correction on the major indexes. Q2 to be revised lower and Q3 negative too. Q1 was very negative. the consumers are not spending its full hunker down mode. And those poor stupid Demoula's/Market Basket workers protesting for their millionaire CEO and getting zero pay and losing their jobs! so they won't be spending but will make more on welfare and EBT cards.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • R2K down 0.8% and IBD MF Index down another 0.48% today. once again, most stocks feel. Prelude to the impending carnage. get out while you can.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Problem is futures, while screaming higher tonight will be Bloody Red by many % points before the NY open on a BIG EVENT by US morning.
    Not sure exactly what it will be but it will be huge. SELL SELL SELL!!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • plunge Friday crash Monday market closed Tuesday 12 month Bear in progress. 50-70% decline on indexes. but as Obama stated in February 2009 near the lows, "the daily gyrations of the stock market mean nothing" such an idiot. now he's taking credit for record profit margins at corporations and stock market all time highs yet business owners hate him.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • "While the major indexes continue to hover fairly close to their 52-week or all-time peaks, it's not a time to be complacent, hopeful, greedy or apathetic. When a market's status is in correction, it means that most stocks tend to fall."

    simply go to 100% cash. when the upper middle class and wealthy feel their net worth is declining, the Recession hits because they rein un spending. The middle class and poor feel US is still in a recession although it officially lasted Dec 2007-June 2009.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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