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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

IBDMAN15 48 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Mar 10, 1999
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  • ibdman15 ibdman15 16 hours ago Flag

    most major crashes begin on anemic volume for a few days. Look at charts form Sept/Oct 1987, Oct 2007 June 2008, Sept 2008 and of course March- April 2000 & Sept- Oct 2000

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • first off don't listen to Thomas Lee. he needs the market to advance. Same as everyone else CNBC parades on TV.
    Let's look back at Sept 2008
    Everyone thought and said the VIX at 35 was a generational bottom for the stock market yet the market declined another 40% after that level was hit and the VIX ultimately ran over 90!!!
    IBD will state that the p/c is over 1.0 for a few days indicating a S-T bottom. They will be wrong. market is now in multi-month correction, downtrend, etc. the sideways distribution phase is over. It is full blown downtrend.

    remember GS's Abby Joseph Cohen in Sept 2008? what was her SPX year end 2008 target?

    I believe oil was starting it's long decent from $150/bb to $30 then too.

    and the FED will be unable to do anything about it! GET OUT of US Stocks Stock ETF's and Mutual funds!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • NYSE Comp, Semiconductors, biotechs and small caps to lead the way into this Bear market. Look at those charts on NYSE Comp, IBB, SMH and IWM. better sell if fully invested in equities. Could crash next week. look at current NYSE Comp chart versus Dow and SPX chart in sept/oct 1987.

    NDQ and Q chart looked like blow off top two weeks back. 6 consecutive gap ups. not unlike March 2000. everything below declining 5 dma and death cross about to occur on NYSE Comp. look at IWM action in Sept 2008 and how fast that cratered.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    NYSE Comp resistence and NDQ top

    by ibdman15 Jul 17, 2015 1:02 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 22, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    NYSE Comp about to breach the 200 dma and death cross late next week.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The FED decided to have an outright buy of AAPL. they can't afford to have aapl tank and bring down the NDQ and SPX. too big an influence on those indexes. Not much influence on Dow since a lower priced Dow stock on a price weighted average.

    It's unreal how the FED can buy stock and stock futures but they do. Janet Yellen is like a deer in headlights.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    No Idea how bad it is ,,,,no idea

    by ibdman15 Jul 21, 2015 10:06 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 21, 2015 10:14 PM Flag

    how about the Q's and SPY plunge tomorrow down 2% and 1.5% each? folks underestimate how much influence AAPL has on those two indexes. plus all the public businesses that feed off the aapl machine. will be similar to China crash. just today CNBC was discussing how record call options on aapl going into the report and low ratio of puts. markets hurt the majority of participants. hedge and MF's to lose billions on that incorrect assumption. then no one upgrades to the I-Phone 6 even though Cook hopes they do. I know hundreds of folks that are switching from I-Phones to android phones.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • people are losing their jobs! and the NYSE a/d line has been declining for a year while a death cross looks imminent on the NYSE composite. broader gauge than the SPX.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    NYSE Comp resistence and NDQ top

    by ibdman15 Jul 17, 2015 1:02 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 17, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    gap and trap on NDQ and Q's. NYSE Target of its H & S is 10,000 and IWM target around $113. get short. Parabolic looking top on the Tech stocks. declining a/d lines all over too

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • NDQ last week of trading looks lie Sept 2008 on the R2K. Notice how the NYSE Comp has hit resistance at its declining 50 dma. Death cross still possible in July. likely early August. Google is masking underlying broad market weakness and distribution today. Could be a huge plunge lurking.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • biggest down week of 2014 or 2015 ahead. market in correction leaders breaking down, lower highs all over, mired below 50 dma's headed below 200 with impending death crosses. watch out below. could be largest summer swoon ever. the Hamptons will not be a happy place as Pa will need to head back to Manhattan.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Greek getting a temporary hall pass, we must turn our attention to the strong possibility of an ISIS attack on the FED Reserve Banks, NYSE, DC and larger US companies that's action drives the US stock market like Apple, GE, GS and JPM. Institutional Investors could be selling into today's premarket strength while retail thinks the coast is clear. Charts are horrendous. look for a lower high to set up this morning.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction Raise Cash

    by ibdman15 Jul 7, 2015 10:33 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 8, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    Oh Darn, Market in correction although today wasn't officially a DD since NYSE pretty much closed. NYSE at lowest level since 2-2 and down 1.6% YTD.. However, the leaders and the indexes all got wrecked. SPX first close below its 200 dma since October. The top is likely in and a death cross on the NYSE Comp could occur by lte July. overlay Sept/Oct 1987 charts with current charts. huge 25% plus weekly correction looking very likely. Lots of folks in US on margin too. it's not just China retail investors.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Upside reversal Buy Buy Buy

    by ibdman15 Jul 7, 2015 3:23 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 7, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    for the Bears out there- it's better to open strong and close weak than open weak and close strong like today. Bullish upsaide reversal. Dow to close up 200 min today as short covering and panic buying sets in.

    wait until the HUGE earnings misses and outlook downgrades. Heck 95% of kids graduating from college if they can get a job are waiting tables or bartending. The Obama economy is awesome with the labor force participation rate at 40 year lows. Austin Goodsbee has it all figured out, just Fix Chicago you liberal idiots.

  • correction is over. market FTD. SPX clear sailing to 2,500 now. ECB and IMF must be bailing out Greece. The international PPT. Thank you God! go all in on margin. ISIS is destroyed too.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction Raise Cash

    by ibdman15 Jul 7, 2015 10:33 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 7, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    and look at oil's plunge! Biggest two day drop in how long? world economy heading into the abyss. no one is spending except those tied to the Federal Government machine. Wait for the worse than expected sales and earnings reports and lowered outlooks just around the corner.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Had a distribution day across the indexes yesterday, leaders breaking down too, dropped one day because of time and we are well on the way to another DD today on higher volume. NYSE below 200 SPX likely to breach 200 dma today. small and mid caps in free fall along with transports. Bear market has begun. don't wait until the SPX is down 20% to sell everything. Get out of US Stocks now. remember, they will not allow the biggest 8 year stock market run ever under a democratic President that is far from business friendly. If they do, that would mean OBAMA is a business friendly dude and he is not. I suspect we see a broad 50% market haircut between now and the next bottom sometime in late 2016. That puts SPY near $100 or lower. do not hold it for the small dividend. raise cash. can always buy back in later. sell your mutual funds and hedge funds too. don't worry about the trading costs or frequent trader fees. 50% drop is 50% capital evaporation. Cash is a position.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Another Distribution Day occurred today BUT.....

    by ibdman15 Jul 6, 2015 4:20 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 6, 2015 9:22 PM Flag

    Death Cross on NYSE Comp occurs by July 31. also been trading several days below both 50 and 200 DMA's

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The market closed smartly well off the lows after Dow futures down 300 last night. That is because Warren Buffett has vowed to bail out Greece to prevent the US stock market from falling, a far greater hit for Berkshire Hathaway than donating $1.8 B to Greece so they can make a payment to the ECB.. And if Warren doesn't step up the FED, treasury and ECB will bail out Greece. can't afford to have a market correction or USA will go into a recession since the stock market is a leading indicator.

    and IBD will step up to the plate and drop 2-3 distribution days due to time keeping the uptrend under pressure rather than in correction. And remember that the p/c was near 1.0 all last week indicating the bottom is in so the coast is clear. buy buy buy on margin like the Chinese are doing across the big pond. stocks and market indexes can only advance in a zero interest rate environment no matter what the sales and earnings clearly show.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 5, 2015 10:15 PM Flag

    Dow closes down 650 Monday, SPX down 125 while NDQ down 180. Greek is a big deal coupled with the horrendous sales, earnings and profit margin compression at US companies. Sell the open. close on LOD's. PE's headed to single digits before a bottom occurs sometime in late 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • DD's 7 and 5 with 3 SPX and 2 NDQ set to expire this week due to time unless more DD occurs starting Monday on the Greek collapse. Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland, France next shoes to drop. then the US derivative implosion. US stock and Bond market collapse is imminent. a/d ratings are D+ D+ D + just because the p/c was 1.0 or greater for 3/4 trading days last week doesn't mean we hit a short term bottom. remember in 2008--2009? the VIX advanced all the way up to 90 when in the old days a VIX of 25-30 indicated a bottom. The P/c may go to 1.8 or 1.9 before a bottom is hit a year or two from now. SPY could drop 50- 70% before that occurs no matter what all those strategists at GS and JPM hope or say. PE about to collapse along with sales, earnings and profit margins. look for SPY to bottom below $90 perhaps as low as $67.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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