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Shire plc Message Board

Invstpro 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2000 9:02 AM Member since: Jan 11, 2000
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  • Invstpro by Invstpro Apr 14, 2000 9:02 AM Flag

    I'm hearing there has been a cut in rating to a hold from a buy out of the U.K. Looking into it.

  • Reply to

    Orange Co. Register(So. CA.)

    by TryingToProfit Mar 20, 2000 8:12 PM
    Invstpro Invstpro Apr 10, 2000 11:36 PM Flag

    I agree that we don't have to agree with
    everything said on this board, but yada raises some very
    good points.

    I agree with EP that we should be
    concerned or at least think about the number of phase III
    drugs inherited from RPC and what has happened to
    Roberts research & clinical folks. That effects future
    product flow. Meanwhile, I'm very concerned over the
    question of Shire going from being essentially a one U.S.
    product company to nearly 30. One product can easily
    escape random FDA audits, but 30 maybe a very different
    story. If Shire is understaffed in QC/QA then FDA
    warning letters and citations could be in the near
    future? (that's something that could certainly stop and
    reverse the stock's positive momentum).

    I don't
    think it's valid to believe the stock's positive
    momentum rules out the possibility that problems maybe be
    building below the surface of public knowledge.

    As
    far as the salesforce is concerned, a rumor is a
    rumor and not fact. Nor should we believe that sales
    people are content simply because their opinions have
    gained value. I believe it is normal for employee
    options to become vested upon change in a company's
    control and, in such cases, the options usually must be
    exercised within some short prescribe time. So it is
    reasonable to believe that sales people have already
    exercised and are no longer tied to further stock
    performance. More important is the fact that Roberts offered
    it sales people options ... does Shire? Also, have
    sales people now locked in a quarter end (March) bonus
    and thus feeling more free to leave?

    These are
    all good questions which may be true or false
    concerns. What is clear from much said here is (as I feared
    8 months ago) the lack of communication access for
    US shareholders (- why don't you know the status of
    Dirame?).

  • Reply to

    Orange Co. Register(So. CA.)

    by TryingToProfit Mar 20, 2000 8:12 PM
    Invstpro Invstpro Apr 2, 2000 2:32 PM Flag

    Certainly you, I, and several others have been on
    this board (RPC�s) for a long time and we have tried
    to share some investment logic, strategy, and info.
    Now-a-days the board appears more like a chat room for egos
    and other nonsense.

    I am glad to see you
    still monitor things, but wish you had more input. I
    guess whatever contacts you had at Roberts have since
    been lost. Not surprising, as few of those people are
    left. In fact, that is becoming an increasing concern
    among some of my colleagues, i.e., loss of talent and
    Shire�s lack of experience handling so many and such a
    diverse range of products and R&D compounds (no record in
    oncology, GI, OTC markets and no record bringing anything
    thru FDA).

    I use to say Shire was underpaying
    for Roberts, but maybe they overpaid if they got
    products and R&D compounds, but lost the talent that gave
    value to those things. I could be wrong, but am not
    alone in these feelings (seems to be gaining some
    strength among others in the street).

  • Reply to

    Orange Co. Register(So. CA.)

    by TryingToProfit Mar 20, 2000 8:12 PM
    Invstpro Invstpro Mar 23, 2000 5:39 PM Flag

    thanks for sharing more about your personal
    wealth and good fortune. That helps your ego, but how
    does it help any one on this board. By the by, how do
    you how many shares are under my management and how
    can you be "sitting on a heck of alot more shares"
    after putting it to some poor soul who had to buy your
    shares at $70.

    Again, thanks for the useful info
    (irony)

  • Reply to

    Orange Co. Register(So. CA.)

    by TryingToProfit Mar 20, 2000 8:12 PM
    Invstpro Invstpro Mar 22, 2000 9:34 PM Flag

    ----- I am glad you did so well with your PUT
    strategy. You might have done better if you sold 1/4 of
    your position at $40, completely covering your $11
    cost basis, then held the remaining 3/4 risk and cost
    free, then selling BUY options bringing in more profits
    and finally letting the stock get called away at $70.
    But still glad to hear you did well. SO WHAT! What�s
    that got to do with anything useful to say here? What
    does that have to do with the fact that your wrong in
    your analysis of short selling pressure when the stock
    fell about 9 points in one day. ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF
    USELESS INFO.

  • Reply to

    Orange Co. Register(So. CA.)

    by TryingToProfit Mar 20, 2000 8:12 PM
    Invstpro Invstpro Mar 21, 2000 6:09 PM Flag

    The nearly 9 point drop in price on Monday was of
    course due to H Clinton�s attach on doctors over
    prescribing drugs like Shire�s adderall for children. That
    certainly could effect an important Shire drug, as pointed
    out by agsulla. The talk from others about short
    sellers is hog wash and has been talked to death here by
    people who don�t know or don�t care what�s happening (I
    believe that was the point being made by agsulla, but the
    irony seems to have gone over the heads of some).


    Well on behalf of all us who raised notes of concern,
    but were called whiners, I�d like to say WE TOLD YOU
    SO!! I hate saying that, but this board has recently
    fallen under the control of the irrational-- those who
    predicted $100 per share, but have no knowledge of what
    this company is about, don�t know this management
    team, don�t obviously don't stay in touch with the
    company, and don�t know about fundamental valuations. It�s
    time for a reality check!

  • Invstpro by Invstpro Feb 21, 2000 11:00 PM Flag

    Potential supply pressure on share price is
    information worth sharing (absolutely)!

    IMO, RPC
    posters have tended (on the old RPC board) to enjoy
    spirited dialogue, i.e., voicing differences of opinions.
    Interestingly, this SHPGY board averaged 15 postings per month
    in the entire year before the merger announcement
    and that jumped to nearly 100 per month in the past 2
    months since the RPC board closed � perhaps reflecting
    movement of more spirited, opinionated RPC shareholders to
    this board.

    Sorry folks, but Shire acquired us
    RPC shareholders and today we represent the majority
    ownership of the company. All of us enjoy the SHPGY stock
    performance. HOWEVER, WHEN A STOCK IS UP SO MUCH IN SUCH A
    SHORT TIME, INFORMATION AND GOOD COMMUNICATIONS BECOME
    EVEN MORE CRITICAL. Shareholders must decide whether
    to stick with it or take profits. That requires good
    communications and, yes, good handholding. For many of us in the
    U.S. (apparently not so for U.K. investors) this
    became more difficult after the merger. Also, I believe
    Shire has inherited many individual investors, who
    collectively represent an important force, but who separately
    may feel left out. Thus questions, criticisms, and
    frustrations are raised.

    Shire itself appears to be
    going through an identity crisis. I had a chance to
    listen to a replay of Shire�s teleconference (held
    Friday). Nothing spectacular, just a backup for the
    release of historical pro forma data. Only four or so
    questions, mostly financial and all, except one, from UK
    analysts. Most interesting to me was that fact that Shire
    management stated that nearly 70% of shareholders were in
    the US, the bulk of sales are in the U.S., Shire
    plans to use US GAAP, probably will report in dollars
    (not pounds), and if, one day, they declare a
    shareholder dividend, it could be in dollars. Yet, as the
    company itself pointed out, this raises the question
    about Shire being domiciled in the UK.

  • Invstpro by Invstpro Jan 25, 2000 5:27 PM Flag

    I agree with my colleague Yada and applaud the
    abundance of his/her thoughts in replying to that simple
    and cleverly posted question about what type of
    things were done at Eatontown.

    I also agree on
    your comments about a slowing in market earnings and
    the risk of high PE stocks during market
    contractions. I�ll add one other thing. Even in a more robust
    stock market, it is difficult to think of an eps growth
    rate of 35% supporting a 45 - 55 multiple. That
    represents an average 43% PE premium to growth which is
    uncomfortably high unless there is an augment to support such
    an unusual PE-to-growth ratio. After all, SHPGY is
    not an internet stock, but maybe it is a stock that
    has now come under the influence of momentum players,
    a potentially volatile situation. Or, maybe the
    stock price already includes potential approval of the
    JNJ developed and filed Alzheimer drug.

    In
    any case, I would caution some people here about
    boasting of such a premium PE. Maybe such �rich�
    PE-to-growth ratios don�t mean much to European analysts, but
    they can cause serve anxiety among many PE sensitive
    US analysts and investors. Furthermore, we gain
    little and are probably at greater risk when we lose
    support from value oriented investors and have that slack
    picked up by the the momentum players.

    The
    person who boasted about the 35% growth rate should
    learn more about the stock market. That type of rate is
    not overly impressive for a growth company,
    particuarly if they are pulling $20 million out of cost. The
    Roberts projected growth from eps $0.53 in 1998 to $1.12
    in 2000 represented an average annual rate of 56%.

  • Ya da, I agree with your assessment of Eatontown
    � a Shire decision (did we really need a PriceW
    study to tell us the cost of living is cheaper in KY,
    please). Others have laid out some valid reasons for
    staying in NJ and I won�t say more.

    Ya da is also
    right that I raised concern months ago about what
    appears to be Shire�s lack of interest or lack of
    understanding about US shareholders. I am not alone in these
    feelings.

    Shire�s website list three IR contacts
    with email address: the CEO, CFO, and Manager, Corp
    Communications. Shire also uses both a US and a UK PR firm. That
    may seem good, but represents very poor US presence
    and, in my opinion, an unprofessional overkill for the
    UK (at least by U.S. standards). The CEO of a
    half-billion-dollar company should not handle IR and most of the
    investment community agrees that CEOs don�t really
    understand the street . CFO as IR is okay for discussing the
    numbers, but it would be better to free up that management
    resource and provide really well trained IR.

    Seven
    months after the merger announcement we have: 1) A new
    CFO (1 month +) who must learn the finances of two
    previously unknown entities � Shire and Roberts, 2) A UK IR
    person who, I am told, is not trained in IR and now has
    to absorb all of the ins and outs of RPC, and 3) no
    direction provided to the street with regard to US IR
    (this, you would have thought would have been worked out
    months ago). One other observation. The bulk of Shire�s
    revenues are generated in the U.S., but the President of
    US Shire-Richwood is not a member of the BoD,
    suggesting that for all its global ambitions, Shire has
    trouble thinking of itself as anything but a UK
    firm.

    Lodi, I am surprised you would take so lightly the
    possibility that Shire management or its UK IR might lie. Yes
    it happens, but if true, that is dangerous. At the
    top of the list of any reason to buy a stock, must be
    management credibility. As you very well know, if that is
    lost, than this baby is coming down in
    flames.

    Fgnoms, there is no question that some investors here and
    abroad bought into the Shire-Roberts merger story. Why
    not, it is a good story for Shire which was further
    pumped up by SBH-GLAXO. But, now the street will be
    watching for verification, results, etc and based on what
    seems to be happening with the integration process,
    there is reason to raise yellow (maybe red) flags about
    this management's ability to hold this bigger ship
    afloat. Deciding to close a facilty in Feb and then
    realizing you need to keep it running for several more
    months is poor planning by Shire (pure and simple).


    I've seem many companies grow their infrastructure and
    top line through acquisition, only to find they
    cannot manage the growth (it might have made some sense
    to try to do something to keep Roberts management
    people on board at least for a little while)


    This is time consuming, so cheers to all and good
    luck.

  • The run up in SHPGY is remarkable even if fueled
    by takeover speculation. To all the folks who have
    shared their opinions here, I suggest it is time to
    protect yourselves (IMHO).

    Don't turn a blind eye
    to the concerns raised here. If they are true and if
    a reliable source comes forward, this bubble could
    burst very fast, particularly with the multiples this
    bird is carrying.

    In any case, for those with
    a good spread it may be time to cover your cost (as
    I have done). Example, those who say they got RPC
    at $11, why not sell 25% of you holdings to cover
    your costs. The remaining 75% is risk free. Famous
    last words, eh?

    Also, for those looking for a
    wonderful 4Q99, remember Shire said it plans a major
    restructuring charge, so expect a big time 'reported' loss.
    That's okay if results from continuing ops are okay.
    However, if Shire doesn't break out the op numbers, the
    quality of earnings may become suspect, i.e., if Shire is
    running scared about Q1 and 2000 they could try to push
    reserves from 1999 into this year and try to hide that
    with complex 4Q99 numbers. I think tictoc asked a
    really good question about how the first quarter may be
    effected by Shire's missed calculation about the timing
    and expense to close Eatontown. Bet they are rushing
    now to figure all the needed charges to take in the
    4Q99. If they screw that up that calculation, o'boy.


    So, don't get blind sided by recent stock performance
    ... as I said before, stay on top of this bird and
    protect yourselves

  • Invstpro by Invstpro Jan 11, 2000 12:48 AM Flag

    Heard the presentation at H&Q by Shire's CEO Rolf
    Stahel ( rstahel@uk.shire.com )

    The presentation
    sounded good on the surface, but much of the story was
    really taken from the old RPC story and I think RPC told
    it better.

    Missing from the meeting was
    Shire's new CFO Angus Russel ( arussell@uk.shire.com ).
    Still not sure why Shire's first CFO resigned? Also
    didn't see anyone from the old RPC eatontown team. Very
    disapointing.

    These things concern me. I remember when RPC was also a
    one man show, i.e., Dr V who was first trusted and
    then lost credibilty with the street (that led to RPC
    stock falling from mid $40 to $10). The turn around in
    RPC stock in the past two to three years was
    remarkable and goes to the credit of the Spitz team. From
    first hand observation, I can tell you RPC team knew
    what they were doing and how to deal with the street
    (it was very refreshing).

    I too am beginning
    to wonder about the integration process. When the
    merger deal was first announced, I said Shire was under
    paying for all they would get from RPC. HOWEVER, without
    the RPC people that made Roberts work, maybe Shire
    actually over paid. My concern is that without talented
    people the company's story will weaken, performance will
    slip, RPC sales people will leave for a 'new boss' who
    can pay more, etc, etc.

    Some of my associates
    say they have problems trusting Shire's management,
    but maybe that's just a reaction to the style of a
    British Company led by a Swiss born CEO -- (with its now
    majority US share base, maybe Shire needs to Americanize
    itself a bit and with all due respect to KY, that maybe
    in the heartland of America but it ain't the
    heartland of the financial community).

    Of course,
    with the crash and burn approach to eatontown, Shire
    will benefit in the the short term with cost savings
    (make you woder if they are already concerned about
    making their numbers). This is clearly a case where
    longer term players need to keep a close eye and stay in
    close contact with this cookie.

SHPG
214.86+2.44(+1.15%)Nov 26 4:00 PMEST

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