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Leucadia National Corporation Message Board

Jaxxxx56 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 11, 2015 3:52 PM Member since: Feb 25, 2000
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  • Long time MPEL holder - bought at an average of 8-9 in mid-late 2000s - sold half of my position in low-mid 30s. Over the past few months I am back to a full position. Added today under $21 and sold $21 puts.

    This looks very compelling here although this could go lower as the market can get very irrational and the Chinese gov't is hard to predict. I like MPEL here due to the following:

    1. Near term catalysts: 1) Manilla operating results for Q1 & Q2 - hopefully they are good; 2)Studio City looks very compelling and will be delivered Q3; 3) FCF generation is good and will be excellent by year end 2015 - barring a total implosion of Macau expect very large buybacks; 4) leverage is managable; 5) operating leverage - available with future phases to Manilla, Studio City, Tower 5 COD, retail COD, etc.

    I am not saying its easy here as this is a falling knife, but if you have a long term horizon (and I don't mean 5 years, I mean like 2 years) you should do very well here.

    Good Luck

  • Reply to

    Shareholder Letter; 10-K

    by mastermind_not Mar 2, 2015 6:52 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Mar 8, 2015 6:42 PM Flag

    Matermind - I would be interested in your thoughts if you have time to re-write the post.

    I read through it and nothing really jumped out at me. The large operating businesses including JEF and Nat'l Beef just seem to be limping along - perhaps some improvement in 2015, but doesn't appear to be anything big. Commented slow Q1 for JEF in 2015.

    The FXCM deal appears to be on the right track - this along with KCG and HRG is where Handler has been at his best.

    LUK Asset Mgmt - appears to be a big focus and is getting a lot investment. Early, but I am hopeful here - a bit concerned about where we are in the cycle short term, but I could see this doing well over time and cash flow from asset mgmt is very predictable which LUK needs.

    Thats about it - there were some special charges in this quarter, but basically LUK is trading at a 20-25x P/E and under book value. I think there is some upside here. I would really like it if they continue to buy back shares - I think thats a good use of capital here as other assets seem pricey while LUK appears cheap.

    Thats all I had - Good Luck

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