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Leucadia National Corporation Message Board

Jaxxxx56 16 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Feb 25, 2000
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  • Reply to

    HRG

    by dickeypiper1 Nov 25, 2014 12:11 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 20 hours ago Flag

    maybe capital concstrained to take the whole thing down, but look how well it would fit. financials - servicer/insurance, energy, and consumer products. it lines up pretty neatly. not much or a difference between 13 and 15 - i assume they think there is much more potential than that - so far HRG has been a nice invesment

  • Reply to

    HRG

    by dickeypiper1 Nov 25, 2014 12:11 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 23 hours ago Flag

    They might be looking to eventually just buy HRG out and roll them into LUK. Would be a pretty good fit

  • Reply to

    Why Doesn't Glencore Just Buy Freeport

    by hold_upright Oct 10, 2014 7:22 AM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Oct 10, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    thats well said - funny thing is i think for the patient inestor both will happen. no buyout here - although it would be easy to divest the majority of the energy assets if an acquirer wished.

  • Reply to

    JEF Investor Call

    by jaxxxx56 Oct 9, 2014 2:02 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Oct 9, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    great points all around - I think they can manage what they have right now and most of the investments I think they plan to grow - not just invest and watch. So small investments now that turn into larger ones as add-on investments are made. We are seeing this with the energy assets, Garcadia, etc. But I agree that at some point there is a limit to how many merchant investments it makes sense to manage especially ones below $100M investment.

    I would like to see them repurchase shares; however, I think Handler is much more interested in safety and keeping dry powder which I understand, but I do think LUK is very undervalued. I hope JEF can keep its momentum and these side investments ramp up and get more consistent at delivering cash flows and distributions to LUK. I don't really expect significantly increased dividends, but hopefully book value continues to rise over time. As long as the side investments are not a disaster and its hard to do this when the investment sizes are fairly minimal, the success of JEF should translate to LUK's success. Not as clear as some would like understandably.

  • Listened to most of the call today. JEF continues to impress me and I think they have a lot of room to grow - the platform is now in place, its a matter of executing and getting more efficient now. I am eager to see how much they can grow.

    I continue to be an aggressive buyer of LUK in this area (under $25) and now it is my largest holding. My main thesis is that JEF is the key value driver and is at an inflection point to drive higher profitability and scale in its model. Also think good growth may be available in China and possibly Europe in the future. As far as the merchant bank investments - we will see. The markets are beginning to show cracks here and LUK should get some opportunities to make some additional investments - which they appear to be doing...bought 4 more dealerships, additional energy/mining investments, etc. Stay patient - I am pretty sure this pays off.

  • Reply to

    Aubrey wants to buy the California assets

    by opti10mm Oct 8, 2014 6:11 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Oct 8, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    Lets say we get $4B for the CA assets and we already realized $3B for the Eagle Ford Assets - we bought Plains and McMoRam Exploration for $9B total. So we could be in a position where we have recouped $7B of our initial $9B investment. That still leaves the remaining Plains assets that we are holding for $2B of which is comprised of mainly Gulf of Mexico assets that Plains paid $6B for. This was a very smart transaction by FCX and it is paying off quickly. The stock has not performed well, but better times may very well be ahead.

  • LUK owns 20% of HRG I beleive - while LUK may not have had direct input - its pretty clear between this and the recent Vietnese investment that they remain bullish on domestic energy.

    NEW YORK, Oct. 6, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Harbinger Group Inc. ("HGI" or the "Company"; NYSE: HRG), a diversified holding company seeking to acquire and grow attractive businesses that can, in the long term, generate sustainable free cash flow, announced today that its wholly-owned subsidiary, HGI Energy Holdings, LLC ("HGI Energy"), has executed an agreement to acquire the remaining approximately 25% interests it does not already hold in the Compass joint venture ("Compass") from EXCO Resources, Inc. ("EXCO") for $118.75 million in cash.

    "Since making our initial investment in Compass a year and a half ago, our enthusiasm for the oil & gas sector has only grown, and we have been actively looking for opportunities to increase our presence in this vertical," said Philip A. Falcone, HGI's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Today's announcement more completely aligns Compass with HGI's investment thesis of building long-term value and sustainable free cash flow. With the remaining interest in, and full control of, Compass, we can more effectively execute on smart conventional asset acquisitions that will drive Compass' value and cash flow generation capability."

  • Reply to

    Your Other Favorite (Top 3) Holdings

    by intrinsic_value Oct 6, 2014 7:23 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Oct 7, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    FCX
    GE
    MPEL

  • Reply to

    Compass

    by tilltale Oct 6, 2014 9:52 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Oct 7, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    thats a fair comment that is applicable to the whole NG industry not just XCO. The key is surviving until the $5-6 gas is available - I beleive XCO is simply positioning themselves to get to that environment and part of that is getting liquid and limiting downside. This company has valuable assets and the resourced needed to monetize those assets when the time is right.

  • Reply to

    See you at $16.00

    by brett626 Sep 30, 2014 2:19 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Sep 30, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    and also no value to Harbinger or Knight

  • Reply to

    See you at $16.00

    by brett626 Sep 30, 2014 2:19 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Sep 30, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    Remember LUK generates cash flow - its not just an asset or book value play.

    Net Income of about $600M (JEF - $360, Berk - $150, Home Fed - 5M, Conwed - 12, Garcadia - 45, Idaho Timber - 10)

    Compare that to an enterprise value of $10B and thats a 17 p/e and thats not including value (if any) to National Beef, Linkem, LUK Asset Mgmt, Energy investments, etc.

    You will need to be patient here because the market doesn't know what LUK is yet...but you will be in good shape accumulating here under $25. If this thing goes to $16 - put every cent you can raise into it.

    Good Luck

  • Reply to

    Increasingly Bullish on LUK

    by jaxxxx56 Aug 5, 2014 2:44 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Sep 30, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    haha - yeah the market is not seeing what i am seeing...i am still very bullish and think LUK is a huge value under $25. We'll see how low this goes, but this collection of business is worth more than $10B.

  • Reply to

    My take on poor 5 year performance

    by cbboog Sep 23, 2014 6:49 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Sep 24, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    I'm not sure about that....JEF was bought for $5.5B thats a 15 p/e based on 2014 earnings of $360M (conservative). Seems fairly reasonable to me and I think JEF has room to grown from here. It also gave LUK a succession plan. I have no problem with the JEF investment at all.

    National Beef on the other hand, it is clear we overpaid - we are in a bad part of the cycle now, but regardless it is probably worth $300M less than we paid. While thats a large sum of money its fairly minimal to LUK overall.

    I think the market is struggling overall to understand the value of all of LUK's components (which I understand) - its hard to get a grasp so you will need to be patient, but in my mind JEF is half of the company and it is on the right track...the rest of it you just have to trust Handler and I think he is building for the long term. I continue to think LUK is a bargin below $25 - it will require patience.

    Also it is clear that the Lake Charles and Oregon LNG projects were not priced in as the loss of Lake Charles did not move the stock today. I don't know the status of Oregon LNG, but if it makes, its clear its gravy according to the market.

    Good Luck

  • Reply to

    Investor Meeting - quick notes

    by mastermind_not Sep 3, 2014 6:34 PM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Sep 4, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    much appreciated thank you.

  • jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Sep 3, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    welcome, did you listen to the investor call - if so can you enlighten us? Also there is a new presentation that corresponds with the call on the website.

    I am becoming convinced that LUK is going to be a long term winner - might take some time but headwinds are begining to turn to tailwinds in many of LUK's businesses. Asset Mgmt and the energy stuff remains big questions marks that could provide upside pop.

  • Reply to

    LUK Investor Meeting

    by dickeypiper1 Sep 3, 2014 9:09 AM
    jaxxxx56 jaxxxx56 Sep 3, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    I tried to register yesterday, but was too late as it was already closed. Would be great if they would produce a transcript or recording, but not holding my breath. Wish they were more friendly on this front.

    Can someone take notes and report back?

    JEF earnings look very strong - hope the momentum continues to build there.

LUK
23.73-0.04(-0.17%)Nov 26 4:03 PMEST

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