saw this - still a very small investment overall for LUK, but KCG appears to be very attractive. Curious as to the long term plan, but a side investment into KCG seems to have some merit. Even with the increased LUK stake KCG's pps has a lid on it for the most part. Could be lots of runway ahead.
called IR this morning - call is over. Said there had been a registration up - I didn't see that anywhere. I asked if a transciprt would be made available and they said we don't know yet. frustrating
Help me understand something on the NOLs - do they only offset taxable to operating income? In other words, they cannot be used to offset capital gains?
Can someone help me understand XCO's hedging situation. I looked at the Q3 presentation and it looks like we have 210 mmbtu/day hedged for 2014. How much NG is XCO expected to produce in 2014 - I know we have reduced rigs in the Haynesville, but think we still have some pretty good current production there.
Is XCO able to participate in this rise in NG pricing? I can't tell from the hedgining situation if and how much we benifit.
Very interested hin adding to my position here at sub-$5.
Continue to follow DO and have sold some June $44 Puts for $2. Interested in increasing my position here for the reasons above. I maybe missing some of the compeitive landscape with regards to supply and demand of rigs but long term oil will be in demand - I am getting more comfortable with support for oil price as well.
No one really talks about LNG export for Freeport, but could be pretty significant down the road:
*We believe only about five or six US liquefaction plants will ultimately be built
but together, those facilities could process for export about 13% of US natural gas production by 2020, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Cheniere Energy (unrated) is constructing a 2.8 bcf/d liquefaction facility, Sabine Pass Liquefaction LLC (Ba3 stable) at an existing import terminal. The DOE has also given at least conditional export licenses to four other LNG projects: Freeport LNG (1.8 bcf/d), Dominion Cove Point LNG (1.0 bcf/d), Cameron LNG (1.7 bcf/d) and Lake Charles Exports (2.0 bcf/d).
so the Oregon plant is pending....is the Lake Charles Export plant the same as LUK's Lake Charles gasification plant? In the 2012 Letter - they state that all permist etc have been received, but no specific mention of LNG export?
great post and I really agree with you - no buyout in the works. The rights offering gives us the cash to exploit the Eagle Ford with KKR, in the meantime and new CEO will be announced and an analyst day will happen in March with new info as to the strategy of the company. I am adding to my position simply because I think XCO's Eagle Ford and Haynesville holdings are worth more than the market cap + debt. Any lift from increasing NG prices is a bonus. SOme fear on declining oil prices, but we don't have significant production yet and beleive we are hedging what we are producing now. Long term I think oil and NG will do fine. I beleive this is the thinking behind Oaktree Ross Perma as well.
I beleive we have lots of hedges in place. Although maybe not on the Geo production yet...but overall will have minimal short term impact.
I have been following for a while as this popped on my radar due to the DMND story. The more I have dug the more interested I got and the recent SA articles make a lot of sense. Its a slow money play, but I really like the strength of the balance sheet with declining debt and in general I think the brands are very valuable. THe family is a large holder so I am not sure how that will work, but i could see a larger food company with more marketing power and distribution strength really expanding these brands rapidly. Would like to get excited about international growth for JBSS but that may be a long road. The trends of healthy eating and foodies cooking at home more should help.
I think very few will exercize the rights - which means that the majority will end up with Ross/Perma - and I don't think they are looking to sell. I really see a situation where the additional shares are locked up thus additional supply which would typically drive price done won't be there plus XCO is on much better financial footing with the $250M the offering raises. You get a little bump in NG and I think there is pretty strong possibility for XCO here. Will be interesting to see.
I have held L for some time and gained an understanding of DO. I have been watching the decline this year - I sold some $60 Dec Puts which will almost certainly be executed and now have added shares at $56.25.
I am thinking this is an inflection point here - the rig construction delays and bad receivables are priced in as is weakness in the Mid-Water rigs. I also think DO is the victicm of tax loss selling as well. DO has no net debt and will be delivering some very valuable rigs to the market over the next 1-3 years. Assuming oil doesn't totally tank - which is hard to imagine - rates should allow this company to show some serious earnings growth. I am expecting a strong recovery - may take some patience.
My other question here is L has been on the sidlines for a while and has plenty of dry powder - I gotta think they are getting somewhat interested in either acquiring DO outright and taking it private or increasing their stake.
Both KCG and HRG investments are fairly small...although both look wise. I am a long time LUK holder and have follwed LUK into its investments on numerouse occassions including JEF and Inmet. I have often found this strategy to be profitable.
HRG shares are up 30%+ from the $8.50/share price acquired. While I still see some value in HRG its up quite a bit from the acquisition and near all time highs...I've decided to hold off here, but will continue to follow.
KCG - this one fell off my radar after the rescue, I simply stopped following. After today's announcement I took a look and it appears to be a solid turnaround story in the early innings. I'm sure a bull market is providing tailwinds but the company is reducing costs and debt rapidly and is producing some solid cash flow. It is at all time highs, but trades below book value. Sold some puts and will continue to follow. Beleive LUK/JEF will be in this a while and may look to increase their investment.