I have thought this all along.. They limited reps from the get go, causing slow launch.
As sales grow and they get closer on smoking cessation as well as BelPhen possibilities, they can buy ARNA now at a steal of $1B market cap and get Belviq along with pipeline on the cheap.
They could buy arena out at 1.5x and only have to issue under 20 million shares of Eisai stock to fund it.
They would no linger be held to sharing sales nor nearly $1B in milestone payments.
The numbers work. Question is at what point do they pull the trigger.
I am sorry, but I have to disagree. What they have done with this offering is they have set it at $1.56, but to sweeten the deal they have to throw in a warrant to get people to buy at that price. Since there are no 5 year options available the best estimator and for ease of approximating value is using 2017 $2 call. I know this is not exact science, so don't get all worked up. So when you offer at $1.56 and you have to throw in a $.20 warrant to make deal happen, you are putting a common value at $1.36.
If they valued the common at $1.80 they would have priced at $1.80 and not thrown in warrant.
I knew this dilution was a long time coming, and last year predicted it some time by end of 2014.
I even posted about it and was slammed as being a short, when in reality I am long.
I obviously missed by about 2.5 months, but look at this as a buying opportunity I expected.
I figure offering values common at $1.36 give or take, so will buy every time we dip below..
I added a bit this morning, but am content if this is where I end up.
It will be interesting to see end of day action today and Monday morning open, but I am in this for the long haul.
I was paying $152 before. Loving new price.
Just got new script card online and refill waiting at pharmacy.
Now price competitive with a gym membership.
Lost 2 pounds last week, over 10% total body weight lost in 8+ months.
Shooting for 15-20% weight loss by May 1...
People are putting a false spin on today's news
I slacked over the holidays and did not take many days.. For thanksgiving to today I am up 2.5 lbs, but am still right around 10% total body weight loss with little effort. I started back up 2X a day yesterday, and expect holiday weight plus additional pound or two by months end. Still shooting for 15-20% total body mass reduction by end of first year (May)...
I have recommended Belviq to friends and family not only for its effectiveness, but the ease of use WITHOUT ANY side effects.
With $75 discount I pay $152 per month... My insurance doesn't cover it.
If you are part of the 60% of the US that have insurance that covers it, I highly recommend it.
As for me I think the money is well worth the benefits.
It's always great when people notice the weight loss.. I was even called "svelte" recently by a family friend, which made me and my wife both smile.
Going in for annual blood work in a couple weeks...will report back :)
My guess is Friday or Monday at the latest
I would not be surprised to see the drug, not the company be bought out by a bigger player sometime in phase 2. It's good to see another potential big hit in the pipeline.
Should be some solid weeks ahead of us