Wed, Apr 16, 2014, 2:20 PM EDT - U.S. Markets close in 1 hr 40 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Diodes Incorporated Message Board

Logicalthought 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2014 9:08 AM Member since: Apr 8, 1999
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Cool PDUFA date!

    by vegacolony1 Apr 14, 2014 7:28 AM
    logicalthought logicalthought Apr 14, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    Wrong. A resubmission following a CRL falls into one of two categories, either "Class 1" which generates a two-month PDUFA date or "Class 2" which generates a six-month date. "Labeling discussions" fall into the category of "Class 1". The fact that the FDA has deemed this to be "Class 2" tells you that ALIM management's claim in December that this was just about "labeling discussions" was total bs. I have no position in PSDV but I'm short ALIM for exactly this reason; i.e., I didn't believe its management.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    MEDG is Grossly Over Valued

    by thegreat.charles Feb 18, 2014 6:32 PM
    logicalthought logicalthought Feb 18, 2014 10:29 PM Flag

    Dude, what's MEDG? Clearly, you've done a huge amount of diligence here, considering that you're not even close on the ticker. But here, I'll help you: 55% gross margins + 10% revenue growth + $14 million of SG&A on $35 million of revenue means this is a great 2x revenue acquisition candidate for a strategic buyer that could easily slash that SG&A by at least 30%.

  • logicalthought logicalthought Feb 5, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    But that's the deal you make BEFORE you win the case. (And two smaller companies did.) There's no reason to make that deal now, especially for a ($40 billion market cap) monster such as Teva.

  • logicalthought logicalthought Feb 5, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    Sorry, Yahoo doesn't recognize brackets as quotation marks... My response to your comment (which I meant to quote above) is that even if Teva settles, now that the IP has been declared invalid three other companies can come along and file ANDAs... It's as if the genie has been let out of the bottle.

  • logicalthought logicalthought Feb 5, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    I agree the biggest factor is what happens with TEVA. Something tells me (pure gut feeling) that they will settle

  • logicalthought logicalthought Feb 5, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    I'm not sure I agree that another company couldn't push it through-- after all, none of the generics are anywhere near the size of Pfizer and yet we're assuming they could do $200-$300 million here. However, I have no doubt that if Pfizer drops this and PTIE has to make a deal elsewhere, it won't do any better than SPLITTING 10% or so with DRRX. So that 20% would turn into more like 5%. Meanwhile, the big downside catalyst here will be when (if) Teva actually launches.

  • logicalthought logicalthought Feb 4, 2014 10:11 PM Flag

    aawilliam: Do you have a reading comprehension problem? What I'm saying is that with large-pharma marketing muscle Remoxy could get $200-$300 million in sales but at that rate Pfizer probably won't bother proceeding with it, especially as it has ALO-02. If you disagree with that, fine-- that's what makes a stock market.

  • I'm paraphrasing Remi here-- despite the quotation marks, these are NOT direct quotes:

    "PFizer returned hydrocodone, hydromorphone and oxymorphone to us because they're only $200-$300 million drugs each and for Pfizer that's not enough to move the needle."

    "Even if oxycontin goes generic, generic opioids are harder to make than regular drugs so the price will only be cut by 50% to 60%." [In other words it becomes, say, a $1.2 billion market.]

    So if oxycontin goes generic (and based on the Teva victory over Purdue it WILL-- not to mention the limited authorized quantities to be sold by Actavis and Impax) and the market winds up with say, Teva, Purdue, Impax, Actavis, Pfizer and one other player for a total of six, and Impax and Actavis are limited to $100 million each, that would leave four players to divide up a $1 billion market, which means we've suddenly got a $250 million per company drug that (in Remi's own words) won't move the needle for Pfizer. Thus, my prediction is that once Teva launches its generic, Pfizer will abandon Remoxy.

  • Reply to

    Red Acre Investments - Analysis

    by boorsrus Jan 20, 2014 3:47 PM
    logicalthought logicalthought Jan 21, 2014 8:16 PM Flag

    I doubt that Pfizer anticipated something this radical would happen. After all, Actavis and Impax settled with Purdue for a small amount of authorized sales each-- if they thought there was a good chance of overturning the key patents in court that likely never would have happened. Pfizer is a big and slow-moving company so I doubt we'll quickly hear anything from it about this, but if it decides to continue on a path to resubmit the NDA in mid-2015 it may face a number of generic competitors already on the market by then. However, the first and most interesting step is to see how long it takes for Teva to launch.

  • Reply to

    Red Acre Investments - Analysis

    by boorsrus Jan 20, 2014 3:47 PM
    logicalthought logicalthought Jan 21, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    FDA policy is to approve an ANDA based on an INITIAL court decision and thus not wait until a final appeal is settled. However, in this case Teva would be launching "at risk," in that if the court decision is later reversed Teva could be liable for substantial damages to Purdue for the time its generic was on the market. However, as such reversals are rare (although they do happen), I suspect that Teva will take its chances and launch a.s.a.p. I'm not sure where the FDA is on the review process for Teva's ANDA, though.

  • Reply to

    Red Acre Investments - Analysis

    by boorsrus Jan 20, 2014 3:47 PM
    logicalthought logicalthought Jan 21, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    Sorry, I meant to say "...even if Remoxy is somewhat MORE tamper-resistant."

  • Reply to

    Red Acre Investments - Analysis

    by boorsrus Jan 20, 2014 3:47 PM
    logicalthought logicalthought Jan 21, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    @boorsrus I don't think the FDA will pull (or refuse to approve) a slew of tamper-resistant generics even if Remoxy is somewhat less tamper-resistant. I could certainly be wrong as the FDA can do surprising things, but that's my bet.

  • Reply to

    Red Acre Investments - Analysis

    by boorsrus Jan 20, 2014 3:47 PM
    logicalthought logicalthought Jan 21, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    Teva's formula is crush-resistant and the way they get there violates the Grunenthal patent but that patent is declared obvious & invalid due to prior art. You can download the ruling if you Google: "united states district court" "southern district of new york" and then towards the top of the page mouse over "cases" and click on "Rulings of Interest." I tried to post the link here but the geniuses at Yahoo won't allow. it. (As an aside, they should fire whoever was responsible for revamping these message boards.)

  • Reply to

    Red Acre Investments - Analysis

    by boorsrus Jan 20, 2014 3:47 PM
    logicalthought logicalthought Jan 21, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    The flaw I see in this reasoning is that if the ruling stands re. the patents (and perhaps long before that appeal is even decided), there will be many more generic makers than TEVA in this market (after Teva's 180-day exclusivity expires). So it won't just be a three-way split at 30% lower pricing-- it could be an eight-way split at 70% lower pricing.

DIOD
27.74+0.02(+0.07%)2:16 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.