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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

MikeEdgar 143 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 26 minutes ago Member since: Jun 13, 2000
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  • Reply to

    ROSG - Added 5 more employees

    by oz_diaz 2 hours 47 minutes ago
    mikeedgar mikeedgar 1 hour 26 minutes ago Flag

    I understand the need to invest in and train a sales force, but by their own projections, they have only enough cash to last until end of 2015. They currently have $24 million in cash. That means that net cash burn is at least $1 million per month. In the 1st qtr, their sales were $600K. That means that sales will have to increase 5 fold just to get anywhere close to cash flow even. I sure hope they do it, but I suspect that if they are successful in generating some sales, they'll still have to go to the secondary market for some more cash as they try to bring more tests to market.

  • Reply to

    Push Over 21

    by mikeedgar 5 hours ago
    mikeedgar mikeedgar 4 hours ago Flag

    Facts? Buying and selling decisions in the short term are not based on facts, other than one's personal facts, i.e. entry points, portfolio weight, and risk tolerance. You can use whatever technical model you wish, and hope that others are using the same one and acting upon it. Of course, if too many use the same model, then someone is going to try to get ahead of that model.

    So why 21? Round number and over the last couple of days, we haven't seen a sustained move above it. If most people believe my simpleton logic, then price will struggle to get over 21, as this will be perceived as the tipping point - either upward or downward. Now, if there is real news (good or bad), 21 won't mean a thing. Then we'll be dealing with company facts.

    People talk about charts as if they have a life of their own. We need to remind ourselves that charts are just a summary of individual buy and sell decisions. Some are human clicks and other others are machine clicks that are driven by programs set up by humans. So, every buy and sell decision we make are not taking advantage of the chart; they are the chart.

  • Get the price over 21 and some of the shorts will start taking profits.

  • Reply to

    SRPT upgraded

    by profitize 6 hours ago
    mikeedgar mikeedgar 5 hours ago Flag

    Was this a 30 minute or all-day upgrade? Sorry to be so skeptical, but past upgrades and higher price targets were quickly forgotten. Still, I hope this upgrade "sticks."

  • Reply to

    A revolution in biology

    by surf5000surf Jul 26, 2014 4:57 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar 7 hours ago Flag

    Surf - I might be a bit more optimistic if ROSG were making some progress from a business management perspective. While many development stage biotechs have signed partnerships and generated some milestone payments, ROSG has not. In fact ROSG has had tests on the market for years now, hired a sales force, and still sales are less than $1 million per year. Look at their P&L and you'll see that cost of sales exceeds sales revenue, i.e. negative margins. Looking to the future is great, but at some point we have to see some signs of the big future payday.

  • mikeedgar mikeedgar Jul 28, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    Target of 17? Is that by end of day?

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jul 28, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    How much further does it have to go down to convince current holders to sell? A small loss usually doesn't shake people with a long term view, but at the current price it is nearly 50% down from the recent secondary.

    The more it goes down without news, the more retail investor figures there is something he doesn't know.

  • Reply to

    Bought a Book - Zero Cost Marginal Society

    by mikeedgar Jul 25, 2014 8:27 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jul 25, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    I think we are, though not necessarily on all products. We can now stream videos and download e-books. You used to pay for long distance calls by the minute, but now they don't cost any more than a local call. Even manufacturing costs have come down with the use of robotics. The marginal cost is now the energy and raw materials to produce the product. If renewable energy becomes a significant portion of our energy source, even energy will be at near zero marginal cost. The only scarcity will be the materials needed to produce the solar panels and wind blades.

  • Bought this on Amazon and author contends that we are moving closer to zero marginal cost for many products, especially those that are delivered electronically. When marginal cost is near zero, potential profits also decline since the competition increases. You'd think that would make profits explode, but it drives down price and there is a point where consumers are saturated.

    As it is, much of the value of AMZN and social media is provided by users. We read the user reviews of books and we go to FB not because of the product, but rather the people we hope to communicate with. Since that is free, the advertisers are the only ones producing revenue for the company. With complete information and transparency, we are able to make much better decisions and do so at the best possible price.

    I love AMZN (buy all my books there), but I am much more price sensitive than I used to be. If there are 2 books on a similar topic and with similar user ratings, I'll select the lower priced one. That can't be good for AMZN's long term profits, but it is certainly good for society as a whole.

  • Reply to

    PE over 500?

    by bigjim1437 Jul 25, 2014 7:39 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jul 25, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    Why do people listen to the analysts? With all of the the other sources of information (including this board), you'd think that analyst estimates would be discounted. It seems to me that we no longer invest on the basis of company performance, but rather on the basis of what we think the analysts will think of the performance.

  • Reply to

    LNKD will be trading at $215 after the ER

    by moneymeyka Jul 24, 2014 1:24 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jul 25, 2014 7:58 AM Flag

    I gave up on LNKD some time ago. I still get updates, but I found that communicating with others on LNKD wasn't any better than an old-fashioned e-mail.

  • Reply to

    Superspike coming?

    by jakelame007 Jul 23, 2014 10:27 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jul 24, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    They can't afford higher revenue. Last year they had 400K in revenue and even though that was a 100% gain over the prior year, margins were NEGATIVE. Their tests have been approved and on the market for years and still haven't generated the sales of a typical McDonald's!

  • Reply to

    Superspike coming?

    by jakelame007 Jul 23, 2014 10:27 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jul 24, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    Let's see. 11 hours since your post and no responses. My assumption is that nobody cares anymore about this stock. With markets near all time highs, even a superspike won't make up for ROSG's dismal performance. If there is a spike, I suspect you'd be among the first take profits. Every other spike has been sold off; why should the next one be different?

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jul 24, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    Any news lately seems to be perceived as bad news. The termination of the CSO can't be thought of as positive, especially since there is no announcement of a replacement. Unfortunately, if we do get any really positive news, too many current holders will see it as an opportunity to get out with a somewhat reduced loss.

  • Reply to

    Rising in sympathy

    by brumancool Jul 23, 2014 3:38 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jul 23, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    Sympathy? OK, but why doesn't that make me feel better? Puma is up 300% and ARIA is up about 1/20th of that. I guess I should be happy that people didn't pull money out of ARIA to buy Puma.

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jul 23, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    If PM is any indication, IBB is going up again today. Will this be the tide that lifts the SRPT boat?

  • Reply to

    BofA Initiates coverage $27PT

    by alleg180 Jul 22, 2014 8:36 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jul 22, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    Only reasonable price targets are thought to be reliable. When someone comes out with a target that is double, too many people see it as pumping. After all, the market surely knows something about the value of a company. Who is selling if they really think that a 50% or greater gain is likely?

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Jul 22, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    Today's news is driving the market cap higher. 4 cent gain is about $450,000 in market cap. Now if I had 10% of the shares, I might call this a good day. Since I don't, it isn't a good day. At least it isn't a really bad day.

  • mikeedgar mikeedgar Jul 18, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    Every day recently, selling at the open has proven to be a good strategy for day traders. For once I'd like to see them punished so that they are not tempted to repeat the cycle.

  • Reply to

    Big options play pushing stock price up

    by whatmeworriee Jul 17, 2014 10:33 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Jul 17, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Someone bought the 38 and sold the 41. That's a 26 cent spread - potentially 10x gain.

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