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Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

MikeEdgar 208 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 19, 2014 4:02 PM Member since: Jun 13, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Revenue up 187%

    by jomar2298 Sep 19, 2014 1:46 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 19, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    Look at the billing and revenue numbers for the last report. There is a huge gap. That's why they are making a special effort at collecting for the tests they have sold. When billing and revenue come close to lining up, you'll have a better sense of how many tests are being conducted and PAID for.

    BTW - That gap also accounts for at least some of the negative gross margins they reported.

  • Reply to

    Don't Buy at the Ask

    by mikeedgar Sep 19, 2014 3:31 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 19, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Well, look at that. All of a sudden the 18K at 3.62 ask are gone. Did someone buy them? I don't think so.

    If the SEC had some insight, they'd put a small tax on any bid or sell offer. 0.25 cents per share would either generate lots of tax revenue or put a stop to this sort of manipulation.

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Sep 19, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    Someone bought at the asking price of 3.62 a few minutes ago and sure enough, there are now 19K shares offered at that price. Clearly no one expects to sell all those shares; they are just there to discourage any enthusiasm for ROSG. OK, it's just my naive opinion.

  • Reply to

    Bad day for the materials sector

    by rpschom Sep 19, 2014 2:54 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 19, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    We don't need no stinkin' materials. Just give us a tiny, shiny, box and lots of pretty colors and we are happy, happy, happy!

  • Reply to

    Revenue up 187%

    by jomar2298 Sep 19, 2014 1:46 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 19, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    $3500 I believe to be the billing rate. The actual revenue is less than that.

  • Really? When there are only 25K at the 6.15 bid. It would seem that if you really wanted to sell, a penny wouldn't hold you back.

    I used to have faith in the market, but now it seems that people with faster access and more capital are in control. For those of you who trade often, it is a mistake to believe that you can win consistently. Its like Vegas; they want you to win once in a while so that you think positive and continue to put your money down.

  • Reply to

    THIS STOCK IS THE VICTIM OF OPTIONS WRITERS

    by solarmanmike Sep 19, 2014 11:15 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 19, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    Yesterday it appeared that 15 would be today's close. Now it looks like 14.

  • Reply to

    Same story, different day....

    by ra9909 Sep 19, 2014 10:52 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 19, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    10% drop since yesterday's open. 10% used to be a significant amount of cash, but these days it amounts to just 6 times Berlin's salary.

  • mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 19, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    I hate ops expire days. Doesn't make much difference which stock you look at; if there is no news, the strike price with the most open contracts is a magnet.

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Sep 18, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    The financial information was the same as the PR, but the discussion of the science showed some potential for the future. The biggest issue appears to be getting doctors to accept the ROSG tests as better replacements for existing cancer tests. The market is big enough, but it isn't as if doctors and patients are lining up, anticipating the next test. Furthermore there is competition, though this was not quantified.

    Again, the science sounds promising and they continue to develop new tests (target is one per year.)

    Partnerships were discussed at a high level, but the only $ amount I heard was the potential for a $75K milestone payment. As I suspected, there is confidentiality in the agreements or the milestone/royalty payments have not been negotiated.

    Yeah - qtrly reports and updates in later 2015.

    There are 11 sales reps for CUP tests. For thyroid test, they will add 2 reps. No projected sales per rep was given.

    Gross billings and revenue as a % is improving. They are trying to set up more contractual payment arrangements (currently about 50-60% of total claims.)

    FDA is going to get into regulating LDTs, but they do not see this as a hindrance to developing tests.

    They talked about the Alzheimer's test, but I couldn't hear it (lawnmower running outside my window.)

    Overall, a good call, but still a work in progress. If this was the first call after the IPO, I'd be much more enthusiastic.

  • Reply to

    CC Link anyone?

    by oldpapa96 Sep 18, 2014 9:54 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 18, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    Check investor relations on ROSG site. It is there. Hasn't started yet.

  • mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 17, 2014 6:50 PM Flag

    Jake - why do you assume that any comment is based on a long or short position? If that is the case, we might as well ignore every comment since it is only self serving. If it makes you feel better, I'll simply post nothing but glowing comments about ROSG. Furthermore, I'll attack anyone who posts anything negative about this fantastically well managed, cutting edge powerhouse that is currently undervalued and could be a 10 bagger within a year.

  • mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 17, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    That's positive. The negative margins are just that: negative.

  • Reply to

    What today's price action really tells us

    by sjbasin Sep 17, 2014 3:19 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 17, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    Wow, what action. This could easily be up 4-5 cents by close.

  • Reply to

    CTCA

    by br25427 Sep 17, 2014 10:58 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 17, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    Dilution is a big issue, especially with such a small cap. They'd have to sell lots of shares just to keep operating. Unfortunately, to this point, all of the partnerships have not provided any cash up front (at least nothing mentioned in the PRs.)

  • Reply to

    CTCA

    by br25427 Sep 17, 2014 10:58 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 17, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    What do you think would be more favorable for ROSG? I know it depends on the terms or either deal, but do you think they should go for the quick gain (buy out), or long term benefit (partner)?

  • Reply to

    This was released what can we infer?

    by jakelame007 Sep 16, 2014 4:22 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 17, 2014 7:54 AM Flag

    Sorry, but this notice isn't on the ROSG website. What can we infer from this? It would seem unlikely that most investors would see it before submitting their proxies.

  • mikeedgar by mikeedgar Sep 16, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    I know this is going to be perceived as bashing, but here goes anyway:

    I just received the proxy materials and I didn't see anything that might point to increased valuation for ROSG. Much of it is to secure compensation for Mr. Berlin and his staff.

    Let's start with pay. Mr. Berlin is going to get $500K per year. That is about 125% of 2013 revenue. Then there are the options on 100K shares with the strike price equal to the share price on Nov. 30, 2014. Why this wasn't set at a minimum of $5 (the last secondary price), beats me. Drive the price down and get options at near lows.

    Then there are the employee incentive shares that will increase by 100% to a total of 1.8 million. With 10.7 million shares outstanding, that is about 17% to help motivate approximately 50 employees (Yahoo reported number.)

    At this point, we might as well go "all in." How much worse can it get? I suppose we should be happy that someone is at least showing up for work and pretending to look after shareholder interests.

    I'm going to abstain. I used to have a meaningful number of shares, but that was before the 4-1, and 15-1 reverse splits. So a vote for or against isn't going to make any difference.

    Was this post too negative? Well then you read the proxy and tell me what I missed.

  • Reply to

    Looking At Fridays Options

    by ncc_dot_pk Sep 15, 2014 4:47 PM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 16, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    Typically, those who sell options are in control. Too often we see a Friday close at a strike price, especially if there is no news.

  • Reply to

    Dreadful feeling

    by oldpapa96 Sep 15, 2014 11:39 AM
    mikeedgar mikeedgar Sep 16, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    And exactly what have you contributed? Did you suggest selling on every spike in the past year or are you simply suggesting continued optimism no matter what the market reaction?

ALNY
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