A psoriasis (P4 protein surpresser - one of the ILU cascade immuno-modulators) treatment reduced amaloid plaques in mice with Alzheimers. It also caused improvements in cognitive behavior. Results were dramatic.
Excerpt from Article from AIDS Conf
Seems CELG should be persuing this itself.
In one, Gilead scientists are working with academic researchers to test a lymphoma drug called Istodax from Celgene Corp. (CELG) in a small HIV patient trial that could begin next year, ... Celgene isn’t pursuing its own testing of the drug for HIV, spokesman Brian Gill said ...
Hopefully, we are filing patents and have the analog patents.
The European CHMP committee did not have an entry endorsing RLI as was hoped for. There was some optimism that there would be a positive mention in the report, but not this month.
So, the market action was predictably down significantly. Next major catalyst will be ASCO in June. Maybe some additional MM first-line data or some refutation of secondary cancers with longterm treatment. Otherwise Celg is doomed to move slowly downward or sideways until some positive news.
CELG is getting punished for missing its numbers as a high CAGR stock. It is loosing the premium given for the historically high CAGR. If the revenue growth rate slows, then the PE will adjust down to a lower tier.
It will take a quarter to validate whether the decline is permanent or just some inventory adjustment. There is a possibility of some intervening upward correction based on news, but that is likely to be short lived until the next quarter(s) revenue numbers confirm the CAGR.
All in all the behavior is as would be anticipated. A small miss by a low PE / CAGR stock is treated much less severly.
As Archie Bunker would say Ipso Fatso - that's how it is....
Celgene is a very high-PE stock (25.5) verses its peers like Amgen (PE 17.5). This higher PE is based on an exceptional CAGR. When that CAGR appears to fall, as was the case with REVLIMID's slowing Growth this quarter, the stock gets punished.
That was the case today. Management says its seasonal, or inventory-depletion related, etc. But, the market perceives the risk that it is a real slowdown in growth.
Thus, we are setback until some future quarter resumes the growth, or another product takes up the slack.
There wasnt any news that was a strong driver of stock price out of the AACR meeting. The next catalyst is ASCO in June. Any thoughts on what news will come out of ASCO?
I dont see a lot to excite me in next week's AACR meeting. Raw abstract count is down, and not anything earth shattering in the Revlimid ones.
Has anyone else read the abstracts and have an opinion?
The market remembers the Signal Acquistion and thinks Celgene paid too much for Abraxane. So, they are naturally suspicious of this new Avila deal. With the incentives of $580M added to the $350M purchase price put's the price at near $1B. But, unlike the Signal deal, the incentives are dependent on achievement of regulatory milestones. So, this is a better crafted than the Signal one. And Avila is more focused in their approach. Perhaps Celgene has learned something along the way.
It will all depend on the quality of Avila's lead compound and the analogs. That we can't know, but hopefully Celgene has the inside scoop. That;s what we are counting on. There is uncertainty.
Thalidomide Analog Appears Worthy Opponent of Sickle Cell Disease. pomalidomide also preserves bone marrow function .... GHSU researchers report in the journal Blood.
Most chemo therapy agents are teratogenic or even explicitly carcinogenic especially over long dozing periods. That is widely known and appreciated by the medical community. Revlimid is no different,. But it's benefit is very clear for MM .
Since the bad Abraxane trial data was coming out, I suspect he decided to put the bad earnings report out at the same time to get all the bad news over with now rather than having two separate bad news events.
Celgene will miss analysts estimates in the upcoming scheduled earnings release.
This could be big:
Low dose Revlimid as a fountain of youth for the immune system? right now this is just a fluff piece, but there may be some truth buried here.
It's considered bad form to make defensive statements about a trial while ASH is still in session. Generally, the proper forum to refute a finding which impacts share price is in analyst meetings, not scientific conferences.
Secondary cancer incidence in Revlimid arm is most likely statistically insignificant in a better controlled study. Many researchers / clinicians believe that if you increase a MM patient's survival there will be emergance of secondary cancers, especially in aggressively treated pateints.
Look at the profile of other chemo agents and you will see a similar result vs placebo.
The PFS data is just so compelling.
Huggin was the CFO and was just this year promoted to CE0. So, the current CFO might be regarded as interim. Although he was with the company for a number of years - I didnt see him as the CFO for that long. Whatever happened (no detail disclosed) I see Fouse as the better candidate for foreign operations, and since we have no need for raising cash - Wall Street expertise is not needed.
Given some M&A activity that Fouse was involved with re: Alcon, You might read in to this some interest in selling the company, especially to a European Pharma house. Although, that is speculation at this point.
The ONXX study had no control arm. It is difficult to prove their 7+ months of survival benefit against some statistical average.
The drug may be good, but the studies just arent constructed to provide an unambiguous result. If the drug is effective, it might be more effective in combination with the small molecule-drug Revlimid.
All in all, the market will ignore this ONXX finding until some more tangable result can be proffered.