This Puke post qualifies as the all time dumbest post I have read over many years, and that is saying a lot given the level of dumbness that is out there. By my count, the BBs at year end owned about 80 different biotech securities. Of those 80, 69 experienced year over year appreciation. The average change in PPS on all 80 securities for the year, including the 11 that declined, exceeded 100%. The median gain of those securities that appreciated was about 79%.
Let me get this straight (no pun intended). An erectile dysfunction cream which is applied to the nose? Pinocchio anyone? Should make for interesting trials.
Looks like the Baker Bros increased ownership by almost a million shares in Q4 bringing them to 9.98%. Of course that was before this weeks meltdown, or perhaps partial meltdown.
Interested to know if other long time SGEN holders felt there was a movement in the emphasis during this CC, what I would call a movement to a Phase III of the company's development. ((PH I - a Clinic only "pure play" (Research & Development), Ph II - getting off the viability floor by commercializing an initial drug (Survival), and Ph III - realizing it's technology vision (Prosperity)).
I am not saying that there was an explicit decision to present the company's business activity in a different light, just that the development of the company seemed to turn another conner toward a very robust, exciting and organically expanding entity. It would seem that the marketplace as measured by the PPS is feeling this as well.
On another note, one of the many elements of SGEN that I have liked over the years is that it is a "patient driven" organization.
Don't see why they would have any interest in that when in two to three years SGEN on it own will be north of $150.
I got in a couple of weeks ago as well. From what I can tell from the mngmt. bios, they appear to have a pretty strong team. CEO has solid background and experience in both Biotech management and business development. Liked how he handled himself at the JP Morgan Conf. Some very good fund names on the list of major holders (in addition to the BB's first purchase in Q3). A good number of trials set to kick off in 2014, with data out in Q3 on one of them. I can't assess their science myself, but I certainly feel good about the major holders and % ownership by funds. From the JPM Conf seems like there is reasonably good revenue potential if some of their trial drugs are successful. Market Cap seems to be in a good place, not insignificant but with success lots of room for growth by multiple times. Strong cash position through mid 2016.
Anyone got any thoughts on all of this or on anything else, especially their science and market potential?
At this point the only significant FDA decision issue is what's on the label as approval is as close to a "done deal" as it gets in biotech (anyone know of a 16-1 positive panel vote that was later rejected by the FDA with no further negative data disclosed? - don't think so).
The thought of their buying another company leaves me totally unenthused as they have not demonstrated in any way over recent years that they have any ability to properly manage the business they have, never mind managing something else that they know even less of.
Gamble? Let's see. The FDA reversed their position and allowed a second submission with the new data. They brought everyone (panel, company, patients) back in. The new data was considered with the old. The patients made strong positive statements. The panel voted 16-1 in favor - much stronger than the previous approval. You now think that FDA approval is a gamble? If you think that here, best get out of biotech everywhere. Approval likelihood doesn't get much stronger than this.
Thanks Red. I've been in this for a long time, since the $3s. It continues to be a "very exciting" story. Siegall is in my eyes approaching the Steve Jobs category for biotech.
The Baker Bros info is a little bit old, not current as your post might suggest to some. Their last reported quarterly purchase totals were for 1,018,966 shares in Q3 (Jul, Aug, Sep) giving them a total of close to 5.8 mil shares, or about 8.6% ownership. All told, not a small investment, but for them not a major investment either. They are likely in at an avg. PPS in the low $2s. It would be nice to know if they have bought or sold any in the last couple of weeks, but I don't see any info on that. If they had purchased another million or so shares, that would have been reported by now, or within the next day or two, as that would have made them a 10% owner.
Speculative as in they have no approved drugs and therefore no product revenue stream. A little bit different than speculating whether future product/service increases will fall to the bottom line in greater or lessor proportions.