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Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. Message Board

PutLovr 5265 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 9, 2014 3:42 PM Member since: Jul 8, 1998
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  • I don't know what is going on but something should have gone on by now and apparently isn't. To me that means that nothing will happen before August 19 and then IF Carl Icahn takes action, starts buying more shares or SOMETHING/ANYTHING then we may make some money. If not, I'm S.O.L. and we are back at 15. I would like to see someone acquire Nuance (for sure) and I'd prefer it not be Apple or Samsung because I think you maxize the value by not having any competitive conflicts but maximize the potential client base. I hope this happens

    Sentiment: Hold

  • putlovr by putlovr Aug 29, 2012 1:59 AM Flag

    John Mauldin started a premium newsletter for which he charges $99. He is great. However he just recommended this stock. It is too small, has too low a volume for someone with his following--small but highly trusting and well heeled. That's why it went up in after market trading

  • Reply to

    anyone else getting tired of this s**t?

    by specific29 Aug 22, 2012 1:24 PM
    PutLovr PutLovr Aug 22, 2012 3:57 PM Flag

    I listened to the conference call and wasn't very excited or happy...what I heard is that production has peaked and will be flat or decline as new wells will mostly offset the gradual decline in production of existing wells through mid 2013, that the mix of oil / gas should stay about the same. So basically we have a finite and declining asset returning cash flow over a period of time and its just a question of how the market values that stream of income.

    The two things that could help would be 1) a sharp increase in prices (but as hedges expire, are we at risk for a decline in prices?) or 2) finding more than expected oil and gas when drilling future wells (but this isn't wildcatting--its just developmental drilling of relatively well known reserves.

  • I see the official estimates...

    AKAM often misses on the high or low side then moves big after announcement of earnings and comments on future...

    Thinking about selling AKAM 38 puts and buying AKAM 38 calls, but if AKAM misses badly and gives poor guidance it could drop below 34 instantly...

    I'm long 7000 shares and currently short 70 March 38 call options.

  • I see the official estimates...

    AKAM often misses on the high or low side then moves big after announcement of earnings and comments on future...

    Thinking about selling AKAM 38 puts and buying AKAM 38 calls, but if AKAM misses badly and gives poor guidance it could drop below 34 instantly...

    I'm long 7000 shares and currently short 70 March 38 call options.

  • I see the official estimates...

    AKAM often misses on the high or low side then moves big after announcement of earnings and comments on future...

    Thinking about selling AKAM 38 puts and buying AKAM 38 calls, but if AKAM misses badly and gives poor guidance it could drop below 34 instantly...

    I'm long 7000 shares and currently short 70 March 38 call options.

  • Reply to

    wow. unbeievabe

    by veryhappydemocrat Feb 16, 2012 2:22 PM
    PutLovr PutLovr Feb 16, 2012 5:37 PM Flag

    why is it down today???

  • Reply to

    below 36 or above 39?

    by stocktalk888 Feb 14, 2012 9:15 AM
    PutLovr PutLovr Feb 14, 2012 2:00 PM Flag

    long term (12-18 months) I think its a $50 stock.
    short term I sell $39 calls (weeklies) when I get a decent price (this week got $0.16) because I don't think it will go above $39 near term and think that if I were more aggressive I'd sell $38 calls and if called hope to buy back under $38.

    any opportunity to buy at $36 or under I see as a very good opportunity, barring a repeat of Jan-Mar 2009 with the replay caused by Europe instead of Lehman/AIG...

  • I haven't the slightest idea what is going on...the change in auditors--I wasn't crazy about BDO but would have perferred a bigger name--they went the WRONG WAY. And why can't they get a good, solid CFO and keep that person? Management doesn't impress or comfort me.

    But my cost basis was way above this--$4? I can't remember now, maybe $5. I sold out half of my position (held in a different account) and this I'll just let sit...either come back to life or slowly evaporate to $0.

    Without spending days going through all the crap on this board--and some of it is, some of it is just meaningless comments--is there anyone with any real direct knowledge of the company who has a clue and could share their knowledge? I'll check back for any responses to this post.

  • Reply to

    Reserves

    by PutLovr Jan 13, 2012 12:00 PM
    PutLovr PutLovr Jan 13, 2012 5:56 PM Flag

    Thank you...I follow your arithmetic. I'd be happier if they didn't draw down the total reserves however. In essence they are making a statement in doing so that either 1) the reserves were too high before or 2) the quality of the loan portfolio has improved in a meaningful way--I'd rather they maintained reserves at the previous levels and paid for all losses out of earnings.

  • Reply to

    Wish Yahoo would do their job

    by a36ftsloop Jan 13, 2012 5:13 PM
    PutLovr PutLovr Jan 13, 2012 5:45 PM Flag

    I TOTALLY AGREE. I personally think Jamie Dimon is a good CEO (especially compared with his predecessor, Bill Shipley (?), but personal attacks are totally wrong and attacks on his family are disgusting.

  • Reply to

    2011 Revenue down 7%, Headcount...

    by PutLovr Jan 13, 2012 12:24 PM
    PutLovr PutLovr Jan 13, 2012 1:08 PM Flag

    I don't disagree about good regional banks (what do you think about New York Community Bank? I can't evaluate their loan portfolio quality well enough...)

    However, I don't think JPM needs the Fed to keep pumping in money...it and Wells Fargo are the two strongest major banks and neither needed TARP money--they only took it because if they didn't it would have made the other banks that needed it look worse.

    And the government and taxpayer profited nicely from what they put into JPM!

    But I am still concerned...haven't figured out all the numbers...why if BofA could cut 10,000 plus people, JPM had to add employees when it couln't grow revenue or income. Haven't reconciled the huge drop in the expense to reserve for loan losses with that not resulting in an increase in the bottom line...I'm probably missing something in the accounting.

  • I'm very long on JPM and generally bullish but this worries me:

    2011 Revenue down 7%,
    2011 Headcount up 14%,
    2011 Compensation Expense up 14%,
    2011 Non-Compensation Expense up 22%.

    Hopefully there will be a lag and the greater expenditures will pay off in the future, but it worries me.

    Any comments? (I'm going to re-read the comments in the report...just skimmed them and jumped to the numbers).

  • Reply to

    Reserves

    by PutLovr Jan 13, 2012 12:00 PM
    PutLovr PutLovr Jan 13, 2012 12:13 PM Flag

    In 2010 JPM has a provision for loan losses of $8,570; in 2011 it fell to 3,621. So the provision in 2011 was $4,949 less than in 2010.

    I must be missing something...earnings in 2011 were only $1,672 higher...

    Does this mean that if you exclude the amount put aside for loan losses from each years operations, that the income would have gone down by $2,877? That would be disastrous. But I haven't been able to reconcile the other numbers to get there--they don't look that bad.

    A serious (analytical) reply would be greatly appreciated.

  • PutLovr by PutLovr Jan 13, 2012 12:00 PM Flag

    Looking now but haven't found it yet.

    If JPM increases reserves (against mortgages, credit cards...Europe) its an expense and reduces earnings...if it reduces reserves, saying "things are better, we don't need as much reserved against potential losses" it increases earnings. But the latter aren't really what I consider earnings (although I do like to subtract the former from earnings)--I like to be conservative.

    Does anyone see where it indicates what effect changes in reserves had on earnings? If volumes were up then reserves should be up and the percentage reserved against credit cards and mortgages should remain the same.

    I think this goes to quality of earnings.

  • Reply to

    Sold 147 January 13 JPM 38 calls @ .12

    by PutLovr Jan 11, 2012 3:01 PM
    PutLovr PutLovr Jan 11, 2012 6:04 PM Flag

    I don't know...JPM could go over 38 on Friday...short covering and Italy and economy shouldn't push it over, but really good surprise in earnings and outlook could. Not earnings from reducing a reserve against credit card losses or anything, but earnings from increasing loans or other ongoing business. Still, even if it does, unless the market takes off I think there will be a correction and an opportunity to buy back.

    Remember--I want to be in this in principle until it hits at least 48 or 50--but that could be a year or more out.

    I'll probably take my chances on having it called away. I've still got January 2013 calls with 30, 40 and 45 strikes.

  • Reply to

    Sold 147 January 13 JPM 38 calls @ .12

    by PutLovr Jan 11, 2012 3:01 PM
    PutLovr PutLovr Jan 11, 2012 3:51 PM Flag

    confused, your first post seems to suggest I bought the calls--with an earnings beat--I thought it was actually the last 14 quarters, not 10...

    I think an earnings beat is expected since they always do it...but what you really need to look at is taking out the adjustements to reserves etc and look at what the underlying businesses are actually making.

    your second reply suggests I buy back...and JPM is up 24 cents since I sold the calls...but I think that if it goes above 38 I'll have a chance to repurchase under 38--unless the earnings and outlook are a total blowout!

    I'll consider your recommendation thought...thanks!

  • Sold 147 January 13 JPM 38 calls for 12 cents...

    I'm hoping they expire worthless but if exercised will try to buy back on a dip or sell naked puts to replace position.

  • PutLovr PutLovr Jan 11, 2012 2:33 PM Flag

    More likely JPM will raise dividend than cut it.

    I don't expect it to raise it now, but by January 2013 at the latest, it will...

  • PutLovr by PutLovr Jan 11, 2012 2:03 PM Flag

    thanks your response on previous thread...I'm starting a new one here because its a different subject.

    You wrote to me:
    "This is a 'BIG BANKERs" board put! Don't look for any kindness, consideration, or free help here.....they all have the 'BIG BANKER's stone hearts...."

    I don't read this board much because I don't think its a good board in general. I find a large number of half sentance posts with no analysis or real thought behind them. And a lot of stupid personal attacks on Jamie Dimon or referring to his mother or daughters...

    I've never met him but I think he is an excellent banker and excellent CEO. When Chase needed a new CEO (Harrison from Chemical was running it after taking over from the previous CEO from MHT), they approached Bank One to merge. Jamie Dimon said o.k., but I'm CEO. Harrison, the useless leftover running the bank for years said "no, I've got three more years until I retire, then you can be CEO." Jamie Dimon said "o.k., no merger, but you can buy us for a 25% premium". Harrison screwed the shareholders of JPMChase to pay a 25% premium just to keep his job (and still was replaced by the board in under 3 years!).

    As a result of his leadership, JPM Chase got hit less with troubled real estate and was chosen to get both Bear Stearns and WAMU. Granted the price for BS went up but their building alone was worth what they paid! And WAMU had warts but if the original deal more or less holds in the long term its a great addition--the branch network they acquired.

    I've seen other boards where 90% of the posts really were analytical or gave valuable insight and information.

PVD
89.59-0.10(-0.11%)Jul 30 4:00 PMEDT

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