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Hanesbrands Inc. Message Board

RETAILexecutive 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 28, 2015 11:16 AM Member since: Dec 20, 1998
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  • Reply to

    A great thesis to go long here and do it now

    by retailexecutive Jan 27, 2015 12:18 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 28, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    You are correct. They could easily have 2x and the potential for even 3x the 2000. Does not matter as this will sneak up on the street over time and would sound way over the top. I believe that they will be acquired by Dollar general and here is why :
    1. Dollar General is still smarting from the sting of rejection from the failed Family Dollar acquisition.
    2. Dollar general would have had to close too many stores ultimately so the FTC saved them .
    3. They could acquire a new very profitable concept with no need to close any stores.
    4. They would get a younger management team to blend with their current team and they need a stronger bench.
    5. A new concept that could grow unrestricted in any market that they would choose in the future as the competitive nature of this business is different than the basic needs driven format of the basic dollar store format does not endanger the format of the trendy value driven proposition of Five Below.
    6. The payback on the new stores is so rapid that the acquisition even at a 50 % premium would be cheaper and better long term for the enterprise business than Family Dollar due to store closings and more of the same. The new concept has strong legs under it as displayed already in the beginning of their roll out strategy.
    7. There is no debt at Five Below. Makes for a clean and quickly accretive transaction for Dollar General.

  • This stock has been largely manipulated by the short interest but I see an end coming to their strategy. The wind down of that strategy is already in force and it will not soon abate. Buy now and here is my thesis. Argue with me .....Please..... A strong American dollar has no negative impact on this business model. In actual fact it has a very strong positive impact as a large portion of the goods are imported and a stronger dollar ensures lower costs and that translates to both a better consumer value and an improved gross margin. A lower gas pump price puts more income in the consumer's hands with discretionary income being enhanced. Value is a key driver and nothing in these stores sells above $5. Having said that due to the fresh, dynamic assortment the average sales transaction is rising. Comp stores are growing very well on a basis of comparison to the over all retail sector. Profits are growing very fast as well as the total growth is very high and likely to improve due to a great real estate strategy which favors fill backs and a new market strategy which signals the strong reach of the concept as a fun, trendy product assortment with an excellent seasonal focus. They have excellent shop keeping skills with an excellent store layout. They have barely scratched the surface with regard to on-line sales which gives them another wing to fly on. The new store strategy is sensational due to their strong real estate strategy which is key to driving first year sales at an unheard of level that equals the total of an average mature store in sales revenue. And get this they return the investment for a new store in less than one year. They have built a distribution center that has the capacity to drive growth far into the future. And get this they have augmented their management team for the future growth of the company. A transition plan that appears to be excellent. Now for the final piece of the thesis. No long term debt at this time. Zero debt !! GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    President Obama's Free Army.

    by ndfirstsection Jan 26, 2015 9:55 AM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 26, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    you have it correct imo

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 24, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    Of course you do not understand it.It goes up because the company poops money. And it mints more money every time it opens a new store. The store on average returns the capital expenditure in 9-10 months. This is unheard of in retail. A new store opens at the average base sales of a mature store. The comps are growing at a faster pace than most retail chains as well. They have an outstanding management team and a trendy fun store to shop . Margins are getting stronger due to the US Dollar strength as well. This is a near no brainer for the long side . Going back to a 4 Handle soon. Sorry about that. Maybe you should sell some in the after hours to try and drive the price red once in a while. This is probably the last year that they will open less than 100 stores a year.
    80 stores this year. Going to have 0ver 2000 stores before we flatten out the growth curve. Hang on to those shorts boys. Dollar General taken a 30,000 foot view and it is just a matter of time since they lost the FDO deal. A strategic investor could spend a nice premium to revitalize their growth strategy and keep their relevance as an exciting growth strategy. I am in no hurry for this but it will happen sometime in the future. If it does not then they will have themselves a nice $2 billion a year revenue company in any case still cheap . Very cheap .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 20, 2015 10:18 AM Flag

    Breakout on strong earnings and volume. watch and learn or buy and profit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 14, 2015 8:58 PM Flag

    The PE you should be evaluating a high growth company on is the future PE which is only 31 and the earnings look to be growing faster than the PE ( future ) It frankly should trade at around 40 on the future and probably will in the future. A stumble is a stumble but it is only a stumble . No one fell down and got hurt here. The EPS missed by a penny against a forecast of $0.60. This stock is going back up. I suggest you read the presentation on their web site. I know you are a short and really play the ain't it awful game but a miss of a penny and still growing between 25-30 % is far from a stock that should drop 25 % on that kind of announcement. With a 23 -25% short outstanding I like the prospects to go back to 40.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There is an excellent presentation on line that paints an excellent picture of the future. Many of the points which have been made by the Bulls here but it is great to see them stump pounding this great strategy. Close your eyes and think about what this chain looks like in another year to 18 months and ask yourself. Have I committed enough to this company's stock ? How much money do I want to make here ? I look forward to the conference call on the earnings. I would expect a very clear picture of continued growth and that comps are driving very well again for 2015. I love this company and the stock is going to be loved as well imo.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 13, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    don't ask us to save your bacon , When does a bear turn into a pig ? Then a hog and then the bacon ? You are sounding desperate already and there is at least another 5% coming behind this.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    To be clear, Lulu is fully valued at this price

    by eringotlieb Jan 12, 2015 10:09 AM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 12, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    To be clear you are wrong. Dead wrong.This company knows what they are doing. They do not dispense merchandise such as there key competitors , they engage the consumer, the advocate for style, and a cool, healthy, casual lifestyle for customers seeking the best products. Value = price + quality and they deliver and they also have a soul that bends towards the social conscious set. GPS, NKE, UA all good companies but they do not offer the in store experience and solid marketing programs. Hate me for being the truth teller. Shorts always do but this run has a tailwind.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good company...rebound inevitable

    by bowersm87 Jan 9, 2015 7:06 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 11, 2015 7:49 PM Flag

    This could be the very best retail stock to buy next week. Way overdone on the sell off. It brought me back in for another serving.Good luck to the longs. I want to read the first comment about being a bag holder. I will laugh all the way to the bank. I read that Jefferies analyst reaffirmed his buy rating on Friday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Jan 10, 2015 9:53 PM Flag

    Excellent fast turn assortment
    Good emphasis on trend and seasonal
    Strong margins and improving due to strong USD
    Excellent proven growth strategy
    No debt
    Experienced senior management team with proven success pattern.
    strong pricing and value
    excellent customer experience

    There is too much going the right way for a penny to cost a 20% markdown on the stock. This was so over the top that it sets up a nice pivot reversal here. Watch for it next week. The shorts will try to continue the bear raid but we will see an up from here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thesis for buying this dip

    by retailexecutive Jan 10, 2015 10:40 AM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 10, 2015 8:49 PM Flag

    Good trade you will be rewarded. This is a great little company. A bear raid on a good pre-announcement way over done.There is so much more to my rebut thesis which includes strong margins due to strong USD. Lower gas pump prices will certainly help as well. And so much more later. Notice that the company has met its new store growth plans and sales are pretty good comparing to the over all industry.

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Jan 10, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    A lot of money is made by entering at stock pivot points and shorting at downward pivots. Both are good strategies when properly timed. I am presenting my buy now thesis. I have made 3 successful round trip trades in this stock and now we are poised for another imo. The market reacted strongly to a warning from the company that while they would generate earnings in the bottom of the range that they projected they would miss by 0.01. That is correct one penny. Normally you could expect a small dip from an announcement like this one. Overdone at 20% in one day. No doubt. Jefferies leading analyst maintains his buy rating . The company has indicated that business is already moving up better in the current quarter. This is a company with an excellent retail strategy and coupled that with an outstanding growth and expansion plan.New stores open at a volume that is equal to the average mature store. This is unheard of in any retailer in America.They opened over 60 stores last year and did it without debt. They expanded their distribution capability and again without debt. This company is in a very aggressive grow out and is performing at both the comp store and new store level in a magnificent manner. Shorts can not believe it. Because no one has ever been able to achieve what this team is achieving they tell you it can not continue. This is wrong and I will complete the thesis over several posts as it is a detailed analysis and I have to go to meeting this morning. More later. Buy now for a pop. A miss of one penny in this environment is not a big deal with the strong P&L and perfect balance sheet. A strong growth company with levered free positive cash flow and not one penny of debt. This is like buying porterhouse at the finest steakhouse for a dollar and getting the wine for free. (More later ) Good luck and good investing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • General lack of interest but this will change imo.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Jan 2, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    There is either a massive upside from here or more downside but that does appear to be a little mitigated bu the current economy. This is no Target Stores turnaround story as Target never lost its' merchandising soul and consumer driven pulse monitor. JCP, thanks to Johnson not only lost their soul he sold it down the drain. So the old CEO returns and has slowed the bleeding. The question is has the wound begun to heal ? I don;t think so . I am sniffing though and looking for a buy point because as bad as JCP is it is a lot better than it was when they threw RJ out. The question is when will real value be revealed here ? I would not short at this level but I am not ready to yell buy yet.

    You may remember my posts here at the beginning of the Johnson regime and my caution and early short call when Ackman and Cohen were still very long. My sense is that it may be getting better now. I covered my last shorts at 10 so I have no dog in the hunt at the moment. Good luck no matter your point of view/

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Just wondering ?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Pushing 11

    by fabricone1 Dec 18, 2014 1:40 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Dec 19, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Trying to pop thru 11. It is just a matter of time . I would not be surprised to see 12 if the channel traders stay long.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Dec 18, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    I wonder why they make sorta fresh breakfast sandwiches and serve bake off doughnuts or is it all bake off product now ? Bulls yell about the coffee being great but the consumer thinks of expensive doughnuts and breakfast sandwiches sounds like if California works the way the rest of this strategy is working we will see 15 before 45..

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    C11 announcement AH, will see 0.005 or 0.004

    by michaelwill69 Dec 15, 2014 2:22 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Dec 15, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Good chance with the net value being under 20M that it goes to liquidation after a brief rest stop in Chapter 11.

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Dec 11, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    I have been traveling these guys for years and they are best of class and the stock is roaring and should break through to 50.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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