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Pacific WebWorks, Inc. Message Board

RagingBull_SI 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 12:48 PM Member since: Apr 6, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Dry bulk order book by vessel class

    by ragingbull_si Apr 17, 2014 10:15 AM
    ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Apr 17, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    Thanks. I like the Compass reports.

  • Audio or others, do know of a free site that reports weekly order book by vessel class. Lloyds just lists totals and BRS has not updated this info for a long time.

  • Reply to

    JP Morgan tells clients to buy shares of Navios

    by mystocks24 Apr 12, 2014 11:08 PM
    ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Apr 13, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    State owned banks may cause a collapse to happen later than people think, or give China more time to get their act together if the go that route. Short term rates are driven primarily by the Indonesian Nickel ore ban. Orders from longer alternate routes will need to be made starting summer at latest to replenish stock.

  • ragingbull_si by ragingbull_si Apr 5, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    Took the gift from the shorts that have to cover by Monday. I think that Monday may be the last day for this gift. I will be back in if it drops below a dollar for the warrants.

  • ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Apr 4, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    The price was listed. The warrants give a right to purchase shares at a market cap of 1.2B about 20 times the current valuation.

  • ragingbull_si by ragingbull_si Apr 3, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    Unsecured creditors will make about 15% and will be unimpaired. The arrangement was not very generous for shareholder
    � the cancellation of all equity interests in the Company, with such equity interests receiving seven year warrants for 6.0% of the New Genco Equity struck at a $1,295 million equity valuation (the "New Genco Warrants").
    So the "good part of that statement is that we could buy our prorata share of up to 6% of the new company at 20 times it's current market cap. In reality the 1.2B market cap will likely be hit within a year and warrants will have whatever value an at the strike price 6 year warrant would have. Hopefully there will be a secondary market for the warrants.
    In reality the prearranged deals are often changed. In this case only the equity shareholders are impaired and the court will need to determine if the debt holders could be unimpaired with more left for the shareholders under a traditional Ch 7. If the answer is yes, the deal will need to be changed.

  • Reply to

    Victor Koshla and GNK

    by bloodysheepbath Apr 2, 2014 1:03 PM
    ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Apr 2, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Both DSX and DRYS are selling at close to their tangible asset values and their ships are valued close to FMV. BALT is valued significantly higher than its asset value but has not written down ship values and has low debt. If GNK were valued at it's true tangible asset value taking out BALT they would be priced around 1.2B. I would expect it to take a year to reach a proper valuation relative to peers.

  • Reply to

    Victor Koshla and GNK

    by bloodysheepbath Apr 2, 2014 1:03 PM
    ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Apr 2, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    WRONG. Centerbridge did not pay 90% on the dollar for 600M in secured debt to sell ships and get their money back. They want equity in a restructured company. Cut shareholders out completely and the court will likely mandate selling all ships to return a small amount to shareholders. Clearly at 85 cent discount on unsecured debt, debt holders are anticipating that they will likely be made mostly whole. Too risky to cut out shareholders. Shareholders will be offered 5-10% in the restructured company. Watch and learn young grasshopper.

  • Reply to

    New 8-K today

    by jim_pond88 Apr 2, 2014 8:34 AM
    ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Apr 2, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    Shareholder's won't get any voting rights but the BK judge will have to consider equity shareholders in any plan. If the creditors get too greedy and shut our shareholders and selling all assets will result in something back to shareholders everyone will lose. That is why I think they will give 5-10% of the re-orged company to shareholders. Any more than that would be very bullish for shareholders and they will emerge from a reorg with significantly lower debt.

  • Reply to

    BK filing today?

    by jim_pond88 Mar 31, 2014 4:07 PM
    ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Mar 31, 2014 5:49 PM Flag

    I am going to guess 5%-8% of restructured company goes to shareholders, 25% to unsecured bondholders and remainder to secured debt holders. This is similar to USU and others.

  • ragingbull_si by ragingbull_si Mar 24, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Unsecured bondholders seem to believe that their risk has improved possibly due to increased ship values. In August the bonds sold for 22. On 2/21 they were 54. On 3/19 they were 64 and are over 80 now. It could also be that they are chomping at the bit to get some of the equity in a CH 11 reorg.

  • ragingbull_si by ragingbull_si Mar 20, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    Ch 11 is almost certain but with the current values close to debt and the ability to raise a little capital through equity it is highly likely that there will be some equity in the new company for current equity shareholders. Look OGSi

  • Reply to

    Chapter 11

    by boatpeople007 Mar 20, 2014 12:21 PM
    ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Mar 20, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    That is almost always the case with Ch 11. Again we all knew this was coming this month. We just don't know what (if anything) will be offered to equity owners.

  • Reply to

    Chapter 11

    by boatpeople007 Mar 20, 2014 12:21 PM
    ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Mar 20, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    Also per Seeking Alpha
    Genko Shipping (GNK -3.1%) spikes lower in mid-day trading after The New York Post reports the company is prepping to file for bankruptcy.
    The estimation from the Post's inside source at Genko: “There is no chance it doesn’t file.”

    But I think everyone knew Ch 11 was coming. The terms are what we are waiting for.

  • Reply to

    Why GNK not issue new share to help pay the debt???

    by schan38 Feb 19, 2014 7:56 AM
    ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Feb 19, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    They would probably need about 300M for debt retirement to satisfy bondholders. That is approx the diff between FMV and debt although Seeking Alpha is alleging it is higher. Assuming they could find a buyer for much new equity at 1.25 per share they would dilute the equity by 6 fold. I think this is still the best option for equity holders but the bond holders now include a company with 600M of debt ownership that likely prefers to take the equity from shareholders.

  • ragingbull_si by ragingbull_si Jan 31, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    I guess shareholders believe that less than half of the proceeds will be put to good use that is accretive long term to earnings since market cap is down 18%. Maybe the rest will be squandered or flushed down a toilet. Probably not too far from the truth :(

  • ragingbull_si by ragingbull_si Jan 31, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    In one more week the defacto Chinese new year vacation period will end and traders will be back at their desks. The BDI is still higher than this time last year and the Chinese new year is two weeks earlier. Coal could start shipping again with a little help from the weather in Australia.

  • ragingbull_si by ragingbull_si Jan 30, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    Why does a company with more than $2B in ships (greater than $1.5B FMV) and a market cap of only $425M raise capital for more ships through an equity offering? Morons! They should at least state the number of shares they plan on using to dilute ownership.

  • ragingbull_si by ragingbull_si Jan 28, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    China Telecom's $400mm Medical Smartphone Agreement Is Great News For China Techfaith Wireless
    Jan. 28, 2014 11:04 AM ET | About: CNTF, Includes: CHA, LFWWF

    Disclosure: I am long CNTF. (More...)

    Swiss healthcare technology company Lifewatch AG (OTC:LFWWF) just announced a 5 year $400mm agreement with China Telecom (CHA) for distribution of medical smartphones and related support services. As manufacturer of the phones, China Techfaith Wireless (CNTF) will benefit from of the China Telecom agreement and potential future agreements with other carriers worldwide. Lifewatch shares jumped over 20% since the announcement, but it appears that few investors have recognized the favorable implications for Techfaith.

    The China Telecom agreement is a "binding Memorandum of Understanding". A final agreement is expected in March, regulatory approval in April, and initial sales later in 2Q. Many details relevant to Techfaith have not been disclosed such as the expected unit volume and the proportion of the expected $400mm revenue applicable to hardware vs service. Terms of Techfaith's supply agreement with Lifewatch are unlikely to be made public, but margins will probably be within the range earned by the company on other specialized products.

  • Reply to

    At ths price, the shipping business is free

    by kem60 Jan 24, 2014 3:21 PM
    ragingbull_si ragingbull_si Jan 24, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    That is correct. In addition DRYS has tankers and panamax on spot with high cash flow. The capes which plummeted are mostly fixed price. I believe they only have one drillship still being mobilized and we should have an update on that soon.

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