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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

Raphael8 660 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 25, 2006 1:51 PM Member since: Feb 26, 1998
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  • Reply to

    If they miss earnings,would be no surprise

    by xciteable2006 Oct 25, 2006 10:25 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Oct 25, 2006 1:51 PM Flag

    I've got to hand it to you, you are at least relentless in your posting. Is this your only form of entertainment? How's the back?

    Newbies: Austin continues to be sarcastic. Sure, you can't blame him with all the doom and gloom shorts on the board. But, really, don't you wish he'd just shoot straight and not treat this board like his personal satirical blog?

    My position? I have none. The chart doesn't say which way to play. You have to make your bet based on fundamentals and whether or not you think we're going into a recession in the next six months.

    Best of luck to all.

  • Reply to

    If they miss earnings,would be no surprise

    by xciteable2006 Oct 25, 2006 10:25 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Oct 25, 2006 1:33 PM Flag

    Newbies to this board:

    Austin is being sarcastic. And, you should put him on ignore. He may know about the industry/company, but he doesn't know the stock.

  • Reply to

    Anyone with a "Strong Sell" on ERTS..

    by flyerd1 Aug 7, 2006 5:30 PM
    raphael8 raphael8 Aug 8, 2006 10:22 AM Flag

    I would also agree that day trading is a poor strategy for anyone but the professionals. On the other hand, if you are going to look at your stocks at least once a day, it makes sense to at least consider whether you should buy, hold, or sell. Otherwise, what's the point of looking?

    I'm personally on a strict diet of weekly trades. I take a serious look at the charts only on the weekend. And I primarily use a weekly chart to determine trends and buy/sell candidates. Not surprisingly, I do much better with this approach than I ever did with more frequent trading. More importantly, I'm much more productive on an average day doing other stuff, because I don't waste my time looking at the market.

    And, of course, I use stop/limit orders.

    Best of luck to all.

  • Reply to

    Anyone with a "Strong Sell" on ERTS..

    by flyerd1 Aug 7, 2006 5:30 PM
    raphael8 raphael8 Aug 7, 2006 7:37 PM Flag

    yeah, but they don't define Long Term.

    In case you haven't noticed, most of us treat this indicator as a "what would I do right now" indicator not a what-should-crazy-buy-and-hold-investors-do indicator. At these prices, there are once again better places to put your money than ERTS.

    Right now I would sell if I were holding, but I'm not. Looks like it should retest the bottom before any real break out to the upside. The last move up was only a test of resistance on the weekly chart, not any kind of glorious new uptrend. And today's move down looks like a break of the uptrend on the daily chart, with an ugly MACD pattern as a topper. But, then, that's all astrology to the fundamental investors.

    Best of luck to all.

  • Reply to

    ERTS is not out of the woods

    by nsthil Aug 3, 2006 9:59 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Aug 3, 2006 4:01 PM Flag

    Has EA announced when their Nintendo Wii titles will ship? The July press release didn't indicate ship dates, it just announced "development" of the titles. I'm wondering if that means:
    1) they are behind the curve on the Wii
    2) they are playing the cards close to the chest (a strategy I heartily approve of)
    3) I'm just out of touch (very possible on this one)

    Hard data only, please. I could do without speculation. I've got plenty of that all on my own.

    Best of luck to all.

  • Reply to

    forced to cover $ 46.98 but went long

    by blamokie Jul 25, 2006 11:34 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jul 25, 2006 3:54 PM Flag

    Kudos for having the balls to admit you had to cover. And, good luck with that long. It's looking very sweet today. Too bad I never got in. Still a little early by my rules.

    Use stops!

  • Reply to

    I enjoy

    by extrememachine Jul 24, 2006 12:05 PM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jul 24, 2006 12:41 PM Flag

    I'm with Austin on this one. Where did you short and what's your stop? It is one thing to pretend you are smart. It's another to show everyone your report card. Start posting your trades in real time. Then let us decide how smart you are.

  • Reply to

    How 'bout that Superman game?

    by orangedigit Jul 7, 2006 6:08 PM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jul 12, 2006 3:20 AM Flag

    There are plenty of other stocks available at much more favorable prices right now. Some of them pay dividends. ERTS has not broken its downtrend. There is no reason to buy in a downtrend.

    Though I'm not Kreskin, I'll be happy to tell you when I do buy; then you be the judge of whether or not I chose a good price. I covered my short at 42, but I don't have a long position yet.

    How about you?

  • Reply to

    How 'bout that Superman game?

    by orangedigit Jul 7, 2006 6:08 PM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jul 12, 2006 3:12 AM Flag

    >>>Do yourself a favor and plop ol' Raph on your Ignore list like I did. The positive contributions he'll make to your portfolio both before and after you do will remain unchanged. <<<

    In your case, that's certainly true, Austin. You ignored me and others when we told you the stock was going into the 40's (I specificallly said 46) . Instead you bought at 57 and $52 and insisted ERTS would never go below $50. So, you were ignoring us BEFORE you put us on "ignore."

    Basically, you're in denial. You rode this stock from 70 to 40. But, please. Tell us again how smart you were/are.

  • Reply to

    How 'bout that Superman game?

    by orangedigit Jul 7, 2006 6:08 PM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jul 11, 2006 12:31 PM Flag

    >>>... I was loading up from 60 down to 40 ...<<<

    So, you're saying that you made the stupid mistake of buying into a downtrend during the LAST transition, but you were too smart to learn anything from that experience, so you did it again this time? It didn't occur to you that if you had kept your powder dry and bought on the way back up you might make a lot more money without suffering the pain of being under water? Oh, wait, I forgot. You don't believe in technical analysis. So you don't know how to recognize a trend. And, you're too smart to listen to anyone else's well reasoned opinion. It's too much more fun to just ridicule the "butt-wipes" as you call them.

    Best of luck. You'll need it.

  • Reply to

    dividend

    by dot1996 Jun 27, 2006 11:58 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jun 27, 2006 1:51 PM Flag

    >>>> I have a feeling the dividend is about to be cut...No way should a company not making money pay a 5 percent return.. <<<

    Based on what do you say that they aren't making money? I can't find any evidence of this. Sure, they're making less money than before, but they are posting positive earnings as far as I can see. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

  • Reply to

    Backdated Stock Options

    by ihitthebid Jun 14, 2006 8:31 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jun 16, 2006 2:52 PM Flag

    It isn't nearly as complicated as you make it sound.

    Everyone knew that a hardware transition was underway. Most people in the industry (because they have a self-interest in saying so) initially insisted that this transition would be smooth. They were wrong about this. As I've said many, many times, Sony's failure to be first to market left open the possibility that they would not win the battle this time. That means EA faces greater possibility of failure in predicting where the development resources should be applied. That created uncertainty for Wall Street. The market hates uncertainty.

    Given the above, you could easily predict that the stock would correct. In a time of uncertainty, the price moves down to the 50 month simple moving average (at a minimum). Check a 20 year chart.

    And, yes, I posted this on this board long before it actually happened. So, don't try to tell me you can't predict a correction. We didn't need a melt down of the market, or a hurricane to create a loss of value in a single troubled stock.

    Now we'll try to pick the bottom, or something reasonably close without riding it down more than 10%. I don't believe in buying blindly in fear of missing a 15% move. That too easily results in dead money. I can earn 5% virtually risk free while I wait.

    Best of luck.

  • Reply to

    Backdated Stock Options

    by ihitthebid Jun 14, 2006 8:31 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jun 14, 2006 6:13 PM Flag

    On the contrary, I made a mistake similar to Austin's with this very same stock many years back (that is, trading against the trend). I paid dearly for that mistake. And I tried to warn him and others that his advice was against the trend. I and others were ridiculed for these warnngs. Austin persisted in presenting himself as someone with superior experience and information. He apparently had neither. He has neither apolgized to the many he mislead, nor acquired the tiniest mote of humillity from his experience. I expected better.

    So, explain again why I should give him a break?

    Frankly, I feel guilty for not having tried harder to silence him before he suckered more people into buying this thing.

    That, and I think his attitude sucks. We're here to trade stocks, not taunts.

    Best of luck.

  • Reply to

    Backdated Stock Options

    by ihitthebid Jun 14, 2006 8:31 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jun 14, 2006 4:42 PM Flag

    A large part of me hopes you are just baiting Austin.

    Otherwise, you haven't been paying close enough attention. Austin repeatedly insisted that the stock would never get below 50. Those of us who insisted it was going to mid-40's were repeatedly ridiculed. Some of us have as much or more experience with this stock that Austin does. Still, we were ridiculed. Some of us know how to read a chart; Austin is uninterested in charts because they are astrology as far as he is concerned. Those who read charts were ridiculed.

    In short, Austin may know something about games, but he apparently knows nothing about this stock. You should put him on ignore and make your mind up for yourself.

    Best of luck.

  • Reply to

    Cramer is bullish on ERTS

    by sol_4_fun Jun 9, 2006 7:23 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jun 10, 2006 11:52 PM Flag

    I've said it before, and I guess for you I'll say it again. Pull up a 20-year monthly chart of ERTS with a 50-month simple moving average drawn on it. The stock loves to revisit that moving average. That's how I knew it could at least do $46 from its lofty $60's. Lucky me, it went lower. (Yes, I was short, but I covered at $42, because I've been expecting a decent squeeze before it goes any lower.)

    Now, take a look at the 1993 - 1995 period. I can promise you that when the stock was at the high in 1993 no one believed it would lose 70% of its value. (I held my shares and bought more all the way down. But, then, I didn't know TA in 1994.) Oddly enough, to duplicate that sort of move, we'd have to see a price of something like the $22 the chart apparently calls for. (Me, I don't read point&figure charts.)

    Still, the move in 1994 took it down to a previous high, I think the equivalent high in this case is at 36. I'm guessing that holds. I'm ready to take any buy signal from this point forward. So, I'm trying to figure out what the range of expectations should be. And, I'm trying to be patient without missing the next big move up. I bet the stock doubles from its low (whatever that is) in less than two years.

    Best of luck to all.

  • Reply to

    Cramer is bullish on ERTS

    by sol_4_fun Jun 9, 2006 7:23 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jun 10, 2006 11:38 PM Flag

    Thanks. That was instructive. Special thanks for the link to the charts, even if the peanut gallery would like to claim they are meaningless.

    I'll keep my eye peeled for any failure of 36 to hold. I think it will hold based on the stock's ancient tendency to retest the high after a breakout.

    It looks to me like ERTS never retested the 36 level after it broke out in the middle of 2003. You'll also notice on a monthly chart that volume declined all the way up from that last correction at the end of 2002.

    Best of luck.

  • Reply to

    Cramer is bullish on ERTS

    by sol_4_fun Jun 9, 2006 7:23 AM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jun 9, 2006 2:11 PM Flag

    Could you explain what you see in the TA to indicate a move to the "mid to low $30's before it levels off"? I'm not expecting anything below $36, but I'm open to hearing other logic.

    (PS: forgive me if I've already asked this and just can't remember.)

  • Reply to

    Please hear me out

    by leemajors6millyun Jun 7, 2006 1:04 PM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jun 8, 2006 2:48 AM Flag

    Answer to my prayers? An actual honest-to-god helpful post. Thanks.

  • Reply to

    Please hear me out

    by leemajors6millyun Jun 7, 2006 1:04 PM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jun 7, 2006 7:36 PM Flag

    Okay. Thanks. That at least explains where the number comes from. But, it doesn't give me everything I'm looking for....

    What will tell you it is time to buy? How will you know it is safe to stick a toe in the water?

    For myself, I'm looking for my favorite MACD divergence on the weekly chart, and/or a break out above the third downtrend line. Since we don't even have the first downtrend line formed on the weekly chart, I'm not looking to get in for anything but a short-term trade at the moment. But I still believe the stock is at least a "hold" and don't expect to see prices below $36 in any case.

    Best of luck.

  • Reply to

    next stop 25

    by three8s2001 Jun 7, 2006 4:21 PM
    raphael8 raphael8 Jun 7, 2006 5:15 PM Flag

    "dumbass" adds nothing to your argument. Please just learn to ignore these idiots. There's a button for it.

    I long for the days when this board actually provided worthwhile insight and good lessons in trading strategy. Maybe now that the stock is in the dump, we can get back to that.

    Best of luck.

EA
47.46+0.22(+0.46%)Dec 19 4:00 PMEST

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