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Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Message Board

Rob_Cos 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2014 11:40 AM Member since: Dec 31, 1997
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  • "800 polymorph and Form A construction are most important/pivotal for extending - both look to favor CELG"

  • Form A/B of RLI claim - again positive coms from patent atty - afterwhich Barcalys said "that clearly favors CELG" Very positive for Markman - looks like Natco may have to settle for 2026 which would vault CELG to $200 imo

  • On Barclays call Patent Partner expert says Hemi-Hyrdate range .46-.59 (water to RLI) should allow broad definition in polymorph 800 patent favoring CELG...

    Comments on polymorph 800 patent seem very positive imo

    We are hosting a conference call with Dr. Theresa Kavanaugh to discuss the intricacies of the Revlimid patent case between Celgene and Nacto/Actavis. We will delve into the claims constructions and discuss potential outcomes of the upcoming Markman Hearing on May 15th as well as next steps of the dispute. The Markman Hearing will provide greater clarity on the validity of Natco/Actavis’ arguments and a sense of the strength of Celgene’s patents.

    Theresa Kavanaugh J.D., Ph.D. - Partner at Goodwin Procter

    Theresa is a partner in Goodwin Procter’s Technology Companies & Life Sciences group. She was named the 2014 Life Sciences IP Attorney of the Year in Massachusetts by Corporate Intl Magazine for her work representing life science and clean tech companies in intellectual property and patent matters, including patent portfolio development, prosecution, and risk assessment including non-infringement and invalidity analyses. She also regularly advises clients on patent strategies in anticipation of company partnering, M&A, and financing events and represents clients in pharmaceutical and chemical patent litigation.

  • Reply to

    Patents at risk

    by analyst112 Apr 30, 2014 10:09 AM
    rob_cos rob_cos Apr 30, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    Natco has no case - markman will show that - the briefs already do....CELG stock is trading like they lost all 19 patents - which is impossible - Supreme court now says yesterday in frivolous generic cases like this generic companies will be responsible for all legal fees...they will pay.
    CELG will be back to all time highs this yr and $200s in 2015 - this Indian blackmail company Natco is about to get its head handed to them in NJ court.

  • rob_cos rob_cos Apr 30, 2014 5:58 AM Flag

    See Investor Village for full 20 page report - here are the three conclusions

    What do we think?

    Based on discussions with a patent attorney, we believe Celgene has a strong case with its

    polymorph patent based on prior case judgments. It will be difficult for Natco/Actavis to

    establish that a hemihydrate is exactly 0.5 molecules of water to 1.0 molecules of

    compound. Prior cases have also determined that a chemical name should not be limited by

    the process in which it is prepared.

    What do we think?

    We view Natco/Actavis’ attempt to narrow the patent as a stretch - to argue that all

    specifications should be incorporated into the claims would deem all the examples to be the

    same, which would defeat the point of the different claims and we do not believe was

    Celgene’s intention when establishing the claims/patent

    What do we think?

    We believe Celgene has the more compelling argument and based on discussions with a

    patent attorney, the phrases in questions should include the racemic mixtures based on

    past cases

  • rob_cos rob_cos Apr 30, 2014 5:57 AM Flag

    A win in the patent challenge would be the best case scenario for CELG and a 1- or

    2-year settlement a close second: Revlimid is CELG’s key product, representing ~67%

    of 2013 product sales and we estimate 90%+ of earnings – a resolution will have a

    significant impact on CELG. The best case for CELG would be if all Revlimid patents are

    upheld in court (exclusivity thru April 2027) and Natco/ACT is found to infringe on

    these patents; we see CELG shares increasing upwards of 20% if CELG wins the trial. A

    near-term settlement (within a year of the Markman ruling) with CELG forfeiting 1-2

    years of its Revlimid patent life (i.e generics entering market in 2025/2026) would be a

    close second-best case as it would remove the overhang with minimal impact on future

    earnings power – we also see CELG shares rising significantly (10%+). The Markman

    hearing and ruling will provide both companies with a better idea of where they stand

    and could also facilitate a settlement discussion. We are hosting a patent attorney call

    on May 2 at 11:00am

  • FULL REPORT ON CELG INVESTOR VILLAGE BOARD - large report wont post on yahoo

    Barclays very detailed Markman reveiw just out - Rulings from the Markman Hearing could be a positive catalyst for CELG "we believe Celgene has a strong case with its polymorph patent (and other patents) based on prior case judgments "

    Barclays 30 April 2014 Celgene Corp.

    Preview for Markman Hearing

    Revlimid Markman hearing scheduled for May 15. The Markman Hearing for the

    Revlimid patent challenge will be held on May 15th. In this report, we have laid out the

    arguments between the two parties and our take on the patent challenge.

    Rulings from the Markman Hearing could be a positive catalyst for CELG: Broadly

    speaking, there are two major patents under dispute – the composition of matter set to

    expire in 2019 and the polymorph patents, which are the last to expire in 2027. We

    believe the main challenge is the polymorph patent as composition of matter patents

    are very difficult to challenge (over 90% are ruled in favor of the patent holder). After

    reviewing the Markman hearing briefs and discussions with patent attorneys, we do not

    view Natco/Actavis’ arguments as compelling enough to invalidate CELG’s polymorph

    patents. While we don’t see the Markman Hearing as a significant catalyst in itself, the

    deliberations between the companies could help paint a clearer picture of who may

    have the upper hand. We do see the final ruling, which could take 2-6 months to be

    determined, as a likely positive catalyst for CELG.

    A win in the patent challenge would be the best case scenario for CELG and a 1- or

    2-year settlement a close second: Revlimid is CELG’s key product, representing ~67%

    of 2013 product sales and we estimate 90%+ of earnings – a resolution will have a

    significant impact on CELG. The best case for CELG would be if all Revlimid patents are

    upheld in court (exclusivity thru April 2027) and Natco/ACT is found to infringe on

    these patents;

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AMGN
122.01+0.90(+0.74%)Jul 23 4:00 PMEDT

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