Are you serious? Some people should not be investing their own money. CELG is an S&P Titan with billions a yr in cash flow, the best gross margins in the S&P 500, a lead drug with 96% gross margins headed to $8 to $10 billion annual sales, 4 other drugs that will be $billio/yr +, the best pipeline and CFO in the industry. Enough difference for you?
I have been involved with multiple bidders for sale of company its a lot of back and forth....this is likely even more complicated 20-30 yr deal with likely different scenarios and even acquisition discussions coming up...but its clear they are close - "any day can be the final day"...when you say by yr end - you likely know by the end of this month...you always build a cushion
The fact that we've got a series of reputable banks, I mean, that's willing to back us, that's about confidence, yes. I think I believe that's about confidence in my team. I think it's about confidence in the company and its about confidence in the resource and it's about the confidence that we will actually deliver this transformational deal. We've worked with these banks and as a team, we've work with a number of these banks before. And they have told us that they are confident that we will deal, and we will do this deal and we will grow this company, and they've backed that up by putting money on the table, and that's something I'm grateful for. And I also go through the fact that it will form the basis of future relationships with our banks, yes. We will be working with these banks going forward in any possible project financing context. I know the deals we may do. These days and with the companies like these, banks are part of your team, yes. And you've got to choose them carefully, and we've chosen them carefully.
. It's a giant hydrocarbon accumulation, and that's how much I'm absolutely confident about. And I'm absolute confident and that we're going to have to put in between 2 and 4 delineation wells, because this thing, the upside, the potential upside associated with it is very very significant. I would go as far as to say that there's far more upside than it is downside in this space. Why am I confident when I say that? As I said, I've gone out and looked carefully at Gaffney Cline. We've looked carefully at GLJ, and I've got an independent team to work this through and come and give me a third opinion. But geology's geology, and I've been trying as a geoscientist, started as a geoscientist. And I think it would be inappropriate and unfair of me to start speculating on exact figures about how big it could get, but I will tell you that I'm very confident this giant hydrocarbon accumulation. I'm very confident that there's enough gas in here to underpinned an LNG development and actually very hopeful and very excited about the possibility of upside here. The answer -- the real answer will be when we put 4 delineation wells in the ground here, yes.
much higher - huge short interest could propel it quickly - but damn I like what I heard today....No longer gonna sell the deal news - New CEO is real deal and has a great plan and great confidence in upside to gas ests....he brought in an amazing team - and the banks gave huge financing after "very detailed due diligence"...I am starting to think $200 sometime next yr is very possible.
CEO "Spend 50% of time in PNG, significant time with O'Neill/Duma...very confident this transformational deal will get done."
and liked what they saw
"The potential for upside gas to current estimates are very very possible.....I will go back...I am excited about the potential upside" The bank financing is a vote of confidence in my team, in the gas upside, and that we will do this transformational deal and we will grow this company"
Hession brought in a 'Delivery Team' last Qtr.
The Team delivered the $250,000,000 loan facility, the right banks and financiers.
"We are to be partnering with a SM in the Elk Antelope resource"
"The transformational deal is underway"
"I've brought in people that have closed LNG deals"
"We have offers from a number of mega-majors"
"We believe we can do this deal by YE"
"We are in parallel negotiations with a number of mega-majors"
"The upside is very very significant"
see IV CELG board...
"Large biotech & pharma valuations and cash flow makes M&A increase for pipeline a virtual certainty. BIIB, GILD, and CELG all will have blockbuster launches and are really not that expensive and only place for real earnings growth in S&P 500 ...Recent pullback will be bought just like Oct 9th pullback. Per ISI CELG PEG is 0.5 in 2016 & that is with LOW Apremilast, Pomalyst and Revlimid numbers. This ASH data could add $3 billion to CELG peak sales LT with 100% ownership worldwide , 95%+ margins and 16% tax rate. Can you say earnings leverage with best CFO in healthcare knowing what to do with all that cash flow"
I invest in biotech stocks fulltime...been following CELG since 1998 when I recommended it at 8 3/8 (adjusted for 12-1 splits really 69 cents) on this board (the 8th post on this board ever) . .We moved mostly to Investorvillage CELG board - as its easier to post long posts and they don't tolerate bashing. I am an ex CEO of a 10 billion dollar finance company and ex CFO of a NYSE bank
Okay up $3.93 today and $6.82 from yesterdays low...only the beginning...how transformative this weeks data was will sink in more & more with each week.....
...culminating in the best ASH in the history of CELG.....we are headed to $170 in the next 2 months at least imo.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE
This data will add $3 billion to PEAK revlimid sales at 95% margins and 16% tax rate
Reminder we hear from CELG mgt Tuesday when they present at the Credit Suisse Healthcare Conference - see celgene website investor relations tab for webcast link
Celgene Corp. at Credit Suisse Healthcare Conference
Tuesday, November 12, 2013 4:30 p.m. ET
Title Celgene Corp. at Credit Suisse Healthcare Conference
Date and Time Tuesday, November 12, 2013 4:30 p.m. ET
Location The Phoenician
With this front line data and NHL incremental data - Revlimid will be the best selling cancer drug of all time and $10 billion+ peak sales is very possible imo...
Front line market is HUGE. NHL market is significantly bigger than Myeloma...Revlimid Rituxan works and even works after Rituxan fails....Revlimid will be big with CC-292 combo...and ONXX drug combo...
Yes guys and gals - $10 billion some day could be a reality - 10 billion/yr drug-95% margin-16% tax...huge EPS lift
The amount of PEAK INCREMENTAL Revlimid sales in EU/Asia/Brazil/Mexico this ASH data will lead to eventually will take this stock to $300 some day....
HUGELY underestimated...billions and billions:
1) 100% ownership - unlike BIIB and DNA and AMGN - CELG is not in 50/50 on this drug.
2) at 95% margin
3) at 16-17% tax rate.
THE EPS LEVERAGE THIS DATA BRINGS DR FOUSE IS ENORMOUS.
Always a delay with CELG - but there is no way with this data this stock does not gravitate towards $170 this yr, $225+ next and $300 down the road.
Citi...Alert: MM-020 Shows Better Overall Survival – Safety Looks Solid – This is a Derisking Event and Is Best Case Scenario
Our Take – The MM-020 data is a best case outcome. The overall survival on Rd is solid and safety looks clearly better than MPT. This is a derisking event and will very likely lead to approval. We see no issues and this should answer all of the outstanding previous concerns of the CHMP regarding Revlimid’s safety. The stock should recover nicely as this is a clean growth story with 20% EPS CAGR. We also believe that apremilast’s consensus ests in 2014 are beatable and this should pave the way to good stock returns in 2014. CELG and GILD are our top picks for the lg cap group and on Citi’s 50 World Champions List. MDVN is our top SMID idea on Citi’s Focus List. The MM-020 data will be published by YE ’13 or early ’14 likely in the NEJM and will very clearly show the OS curves
MM-020 Data Looks Good – OS Trend Much Better Than Expected – The MM-020 abstract looks good overall with better than expected overall survival trend of a 22% reduction in risk of death (HR=0.78) with a p=0.01685. This is a solid trend and just missed hitting the pre-specified boundary of p
BMO - MM-020 Detail Establish Rd Maintenance as New Standard. Reiterate Outperform and $200 target
Thursday, November 7, 2013 Biotechnology BMO Celgene (CELG-NASDAQ)
Stock Rating: Outperform .........Target Price: $200.00
MM-020 Detail Establish Rd Maintenance as New Standard
Details of Celgene's Revlimid + dexamethasone (Rd) newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) trial, MM-020, were released this morning in the American Society of Hematology (ASH) abstracts. The trial enrolled transplant ineligible patients, with a key comparison of Rd continuous maintenance therapy vs melphalan + prednisone + Thalomid (MPT) where a 28% reduction in the hazard ratio for progression or death was observed, HR=0.72 p=0.00006. Key secondary endpoints favoring Rd maintenance included ORR (72% vs 62%), duration of response (HR=0.63), and PFS on first salvage therapy, PFS2, HR=0.78. Secondary primary malignancy (SPM) of hematologic origin were reduced with Rd versus MPT at 0.4% vs 2.2% with solid tumor SPM occurring at 2.8% in each arm.
We believe that a 30% reduction in the hazard of progression and 22% reduction in the hazard of death, combined with reduction in toxicity and risk of SPM will establish Rd maintenance as the preferred front-line therapy in transplant ineligble NDMM and support frontline label expansion in Europe.
We expect incremental at the ASH meeting on a comparison of Rd maintenance vs. shorter duration Rd x 18 months and believe that Rd maintenance will be borne out as the preferred approach to frontline maintenance therapy.
With more than 500 patients enrolled over the age of 65 years, we believe that this subset analysis will favor Rd to a higher degree and with 75% of men and 79% of women over the age of 70 years in the real world, we view this as a critical subset analysis.
Separate review of IFM-0502 data for Revlimid in younger transplant eligible patients suggests more equivocal results with no difference in
Just heard from someone at Chemotherapy Foundation Mtg - Speaker sums up presentation: "Abraxane/Gem will be used more than standard of care and may become backbone of choice for future combinations."
Going on right now Marriot Marquis NYC
Keynote address on pancreatic carcinoma. Audience electronic response for which agent to use as frontline? Answer: 48.4% Abraxane/Gem, 46.7% Folfirinox
Speaker sums up presentation: Abraxane/Gem will be used more than standard of care and may become backbone of choice for future combinations.
Data will be great tomorrow. Adding - I called the last Oct 9th bottom in $143s - we ran to 161 in weeks....I call this bottom at $144 and added 3 x's today.