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Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Message Board

Rob_Cos 56 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 11, 2014 12:19 AM Member since: Dec 31, 1997
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  • Raymond James - Great timing of 1st ever IOC buyback....Given that the stock is trading 30% below our base case NAV estimate, we think the timing of this announcement is excellent from the standpoint of stabilizing the share price and creating accretion.

    InterOil Corp. (IOC/$54.45/Outperform) announces $50 million buyback. After recent weakness in the stock price - giving back essentially all of its year-to-date gains over the past month, largely due to a longer-than-expected timeframe for the exploration program - InterOil has announced a $50 million share buyback authorization. This equates to 2% of shares outstanding. The authorization is valid over the next 12 months. We are big fans of this decision - which marks the first-ever buyback in InterOil's history. Following the resource selldown in March and last month's sale of the refinery and retail marketing assets, there is close to $800 million in cash on the balance sheet, or one-third of market cap.

    Given that the stock is trading 30% below our base case NAV estimate, we think the timing of this announcement is excellent from the standpoint of stabilizing the share price and creating accretion. Once the additional Elk/Antelope resource payments are received in 2015, there is room to materially upsize the buyback as well.

  • Go to Investor Village CELG board for a better color version of this Celgene Truck....

    LOOK OUT SHORTS!!!!! THE CELGENE TRUCK IS NOW BURSTING AT THE SEAMS WITH NEAR TERM CATALYSTS, BARRELING THROUGH ALL TIME HIGHS!!!

    |^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^|||___________
    |Positive Markman/ 90%+ margin!! |
    |20+ early bio partners/ Dr Fouse! ! |
    |Split/2015 dividend/ Cash Flow $$ |
    |Otezla/Pomalyst/Abrax/GED0301....|
    |Pending EU Front line approval___
    |NHL data/Best Bio Pipeline_||||____\,___
    |_..__..___..__..__..======|===|$88+ ]]]]]]]] HONK!!HONK!!HONK!!
    (@)''''(@''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''(@)***(@)******(@)+ Shorts' Charred Carcasses:-)

    Someone asked to bring back the Celgene Truck...this one's for long term holders....this truck is 10 yrs old but adding cargo everyday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Did ACAD just say....that they are filing in Europe next yr (meaning on only 1 trial)?? That would be huge imo - did I mishear?

  • VERY nice close $3.30 up 31 cents a penny from HOD - 1,425,000 shares vs 700k avg last 2 days & 335,300 daily avg last week......Hmmmmm....

    Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
    Sep 4, 2014 3.09 3.09 2.98 2.99 770,900 2.99
    Sep 3, 2014 3.01 3.10 2.99 3.07 674,200 3.07
    Sep 2, 2014 3.23 3.27 2.99 3.00 1,117,800 3.00
    Aug 29, 2014 3.16 3.23 3.15 3.23 337,900 3.23
    Aug 28, 2014 3.25 3.28 3.14 3.15 463,100 3.15
    Aug 27, 2014 3.32 3.35 3.25 3.29 307,300 3.29
    Aug 26, 2014 3.27 3.32 3.23 3.28 507,200 3.28
    Aug 25, 2014 3.22 3.33 3.21 3.22 365,000 3.22

  • . ACAD smoking out of the gate this am over 28 up $1.20 +4% % 1st hour over 600.000 shrs Surge on volume good sign. Smart shorts starting to cover after breakthrough designation. EU approval will come also on only 1 Ph 3 not in price

  • An Open Letter To Janet Yellen: Is There A Biotech Bubble?
    Forbes
    7/18/2014 @ 8:24AM
    Mark Schoenebaum, the lead health care analyst at International Strategy & Investment Group, sent the following open letter to his clients this morning, in response to comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen that have left both the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index and bellwethers like Celgene, Gilead, and Biogen Idec all down 5% for the week.

    I think it’s worth reprinting — I’ve added the headers and changed some punctuation.


    The Honorable Janet Yellen, Ph.D.

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20551

    Dear Dr. Yellen:

    Thank you for sharing your thoughts recently on the biotech sector. Given your stature, I paid very close attention to your comments, as did most biotech observers.

    You stated that biotechnology valuations are “stretched, with ratios of prices to forward earnings remaining high relative to historical norms.”

    I just gathered biotech price to earnings ratios back to 1993 using Russell 1000 data, and my data show that the current ratio is roughly in-line with the historical median and is approximately 80% below the peak.

    Please tell me what I’m missing, Dr. Yellen.

    Respectfully,

    Mark Schoenebaum

    Senior Managing Director

    Head of Healthcare Research

    International Strategy And Investing Group

  • Reply to

    CELG News and information

    by hedgecutter10 Aug 7, 2014 12:30 PM
    rob_cos rob_cos Aug 7, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    Rob has been recommending the stock for 15 yrs since 39 cents - 8 3/8s divided by 24 for 1 total splits...its no scam its hard work, lots of due diligence, attending CELG presentations at healthcare conferences, attending annual shareholders meetings, getting to know CELG execs and board members and reading every analyst report....Go to investorvillage CELG board and you will see my posts for yrs - and see that I am approaching 100,000 visitor recommendations on my CELG posts - this is by far the most recommeations of any IV poster....The stock has risen over 200 times (20,000%) since I first recommended and it just tripled in the last couple of yrs....its going to double from here. Do your own due diligence - by far Investorvillage CELG board is the place to get the most CELG information - a recent yahoo poster who went there posted that recently.....BTY I posted CELG post #8 on this yahoo finance board in 1998 and also posted post 100,000 back when they were numbered....we moved to IV because of better posting ability (bigger posts allowed, links allowed, colors and text highlighting/bolding/fonts, pictures/slides/charts postable, etc) Go there everyday if you are a CELG investor - really.

  • Deutsche Bank-Pharmacyclics Alert - The best launch in Hematology so far w/ 36% share in 2L + CLL


    Deutsche Bank - Equity Research - North America

    Pharmacyclics Alert - The best launch in Hematology so far w/ 36% share in 2L + CLL
    31 July 2014

    Pharmacyclics PCYC. Closing Price: 120.44 USD,

    Target Price: 180.00 USD, Recommendation: Buy

    Imbruvica launch continues to beat expectations. We reiterate buy on strong momentum

    Q1 Imbruvica sales at $109M were strong vs. consensus at $89M. Demand was $105M while inventory was ~$4M. The company did not provide guidance but noted that launch momentum looks promising. The co shipped ~9.5K bottles of 90-pills (CLL) and ~4K bottles of 120-pills (MCL) during the Q. Overall in the third quarter of the launch, Imbruvica uptake looks better than most hematology products including Revlimid, Rituxan and Gleevec. As we previously noted, we expect Imbruvica to have a Revlimid like revenue trajectory and model peak sales in CLL at ~$5B WW. Please ask for our note.

    Launch color: 36% share in CLL (2nd line +) & 40% share in MCL (2nd line +)

    Imbruvica uptake seems very strong with 36% market share in 2nd line + CLL market in the first full Q post approval (vs. 26% in last Q). Similarly for MCL, Imbruvica now has 40% market share in 2nd line + patients (35% in last Q). The company attributes this to well executed commercial strategy, supported by compelling clinical data. We continue to believe this growth momentum would last as we see post ASCO impact in 3Q. Also first line approval in del-17p and the inclusion of RESONATE data in label should support uptake. We are modeling 3Q/4Q sales at $135M/$160M and model 2014 sales at $456M vs. $385M previous.

    EU approval and launch next regulatory catalyst in 3Q’14

    As expected the SG&A spend increased as partner JNJ started putting more efforts on EU launch. 2Q PCYC SG&A spend on Imbruvica was ~$26M vs. $18M in 1Q. EU launch is expected in late

  • JPMorgan full report - Progress on the European Front - Reiterate Overweight and $33 target - bio selloff creates highly compelling long-term investment opportunity

    J.P. Morgan

    ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Overweight
    ACAD, ACAD US

    2Q Snapshot...Progress on the European Front

    Price Target: $33.00

    Biotechnology

    We are reiterating our OW rating on ACAD following the 2Q report. The biggest

    update to come out of the call was a timeline/path forward in the EU for pimavanserin

    for PDP: the co plans to file an MAA in the EU 6-9 mos post filing in the US. Pre-

    NDA meetings have been completed, and the company remains on track for US filing

    around year-end (with the rate limiting step being 12 mos stability testing started in

    Oct 2013). Progress with the ADP trial continues as planned. The co is also planning

    an additional study to further characterize pima’s potential sleep benefit in addition to

    a trial in schizophrenia. Bottom line, everything is progressing as expected, and we

    continue to think that ACAD’s lack of 2014 catalysts plus the recent biotech sell-off

    have combined to create a highly compelling long-term investment opportunity.

     Key incremental takeaway: ACAD noted it is moving forward with an MAA

    filing in Europe without requesting formal Scientific Advice/without having spoken

    with the EMA on the adequacy of a single pivotal trial for filing. This decision was

    made based partly on guidance from external consultants (who ACAD noted are

    former EMA employees) and also the company’s confidence in the existing data

    package.

     Key upcoming events. The most notable event in 2014 will be submission of the

    NDA for pimavanserin in PDP which is expected near year-end. In the EU, an

    MAA filing is anticipated 6-9 mos following NDA submission. In the meantime, we

    expect incremental updates on commercial preparations in the US throughout the

    year. ACADIA also plans to announce more details on the life-cycle management

    opportunities for pimavanserin, specifically planned studies in schizophrenia, later

    this year. A key event in 2015 should be pimavanserin data in ADP (likely 2H).

     2Q results. 2Q EPS was ($0.22) vs. JPMe/cons of ($0.18)/($0.11). 2Q OpEx was

    $22M vs. JPMe of $19M (R&D was $14M vs. JPMe of $12M). That said, ACAD is

    not an earnings story.

     Estimate revisions; establishing a Dec 15 target of $33. We have updated our

    model for 2Q results, and have made minor tweaks to the expense expectations

    going forward. We’re also establishing a Dec 15 PT of $33 (unchanged vs. our

    previous YE14 target).

     Balance sheet update. ACAD ended 2Q14 with ~$354M in cash, which the

    company believes will be sufficient through at least 2017.

  • Smart shorts are covering - stubborn ones can cover mid 30s.

  • Reply to

    Short shares...oh my

    by crecy_war_knight Jun 23, 2014 11:18 AM
    rob_cos rob_cos Jun 23, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    Accelerant for the coming move much higher....this could get interesting. Kindling for the fire. I love high short interest. So does Baker Bros.

  • JMP- Read-through to Celgene from JNJ 2Q14 Earnings - "We continue to view CELG as our top large-cap pick and reaffirm our estimates and Market Outperform rating"

    JMP today - Read-through to Celgene from JNJ 2Q14 Earnings

    MARKET OUTPERFORM | Price: $88.11 | Target Price: $102.00
    INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS

    Johnson and Johnson (JNJ, NC) reported 2Q14 earnings today, disclosing ex-U.S. Velcade sales of $403MM; maintaining Market Outperform rating on Celgene and $102 YE14 price target, derived through DCF and P/E multiple valuation methodologies. Ex-U.S. Velcade sales were $403MM for the quarter - a 1.2% sequential decline from 1Q14 sales ($408MM) and 6.4% gain year over year (from $379MM). For Celgene, we reaffirm our projected 2Q14 ex-U.S. ($516.5MM) and worldwide ($1.2bn) Revlimid estimates, and non-GAAP EPS estimate of $0.88. CELG reports its 2Q14 earnings results on July 24, before market open.

    Sequentially flat quarter for Velcade reflects product maturation in the RRMM setting, with limited read-through to overall market growth. As noted above, Velcade growth year over year was modest at 6.4% (6.2% constant currency), and likely primarily a result of price rather than volume. In our view, this trend reflects a leveling in penetration typical of a mature product, and as an IV product, one particularly susceptible to oral agents (Revlimid, Pomalyst). While Q2 results may imply Velcade losing ground to the Celgene myeloma franchise near term, we maintain the view that the primary driver for Revlimid growth longer term will be uptake in the newly diagnosed maintenance setting.

    We remain bullish on Celgene and forecast total revenues to rise to $17bn+ by 2020. We expect Celgene’s four blockbuster drugs (Revlimid, Abraxane, Otezla, and Pomalyst) to drive revenues in excess of $13.4bn by 2017, and $17bn by 2020, while investments in collaborators like Acceleron, Epizyme, Oncomed, Agios and others ensure growth from 2017 and beyond. We continue to view CELG as our t

  • Took former CEO Frost over to Intrexon preparing for sale imo. Was in 14s then trial halted - trial has been restarted promptly and now they just got an unexpectedly bullish FDA panel vote for upside. Stock trading in 9s is insanely cheap - no reason why this stock should not be back to 12-13 after trial restarted - especially after the positive Panel vote. Kirk sells in 20s by yr end - earning lots of capital for intrexon.

  • The expert advisors say file on Phase 3 trial - compelling data package and EU wants alt to deadly anti-psychotics. EU approval is not in this stock. Adding AH before analyst reports come out

  • Sounds like they are going directly to EMEA MAA filing in Europe next yr on one trial after discussing with multiple country experts, EMEA personnel and advisory group....This to me is pretty big - seems like they don't need a second phase 3. If that is right this is good news imo not priced in this stock?

    Said they don't need a scientific review as those are for earlier stage drugs per the experts. Committee advice

  • UBS - Outlook into YE14: Still Bullish on Biotech-Upside to numbers, pipeline, and M&A...GED-031 multiple expansion....CELG/GILD favorites....raise CELG target to $112
    US Biotechnology
    Outlook into YE14: Still Bullish on Biotech

    Biotech outperforming YTD; Why we’re sticking with our call into YE14
    Biotech indexes are up 22-34% YTD, outperforming the market (S&P: +8%) and healthcare (XLV: +15%), and in this note, we re-assess our views on the sector and our favorite stocks. Despite recent sector performance, we believe the drivers of biotech outperformance are still relevant into YE2014. **Please join us for a conference call at 11am ET TODAY to discuss sector metrics and best ideas into YE14 The SLIDES for the call start on page-3 of this note.

    Three drivers of upside still relevant: Upside to numbers, pipeline, and M&A
    [1] We continue to think numbers are beatable in large cap this year. None of our models look stretched, and in our view there appears to be plenty of room to beat (particularly for GILD), which we think can continue to drive numbers higher. [2] We also think multiple expansion can be driven by pipeline catalysts this fall, including CELG’s GED-301, initial data for GILD’s simtuzumab in cancer (where expectations are non-existent, in our view), and 7-day data for ACHN’s nuc in HCV. [3] We are more bullish on M&A given the inflection of cash flows in large cap, coupled with the need for large cap to address toughening growth comps by 2016-17, and because mid-caps have done a good job in value creation through de-risking of valuable assets. We expect PBYI to be top of the list for bolt-on growth.

    Favorites into YE14: CELG, GILD in large cap; VRTX, PBYI, ACHN in smids
    Amid low expectations, we think both CELG and GILD could see $5-10 upside if pipeline readouts described above are convincing. We see compelling risk-reward in VRTX shares considering upside/downside scenarios, and we surmise it is under-owned in large cap growth portfolios. We

  • TGTX Novel Combination of TG-1101 (Ublituximab) and TGR-1202 Demonstrates Compelling Early Activity and Safety Profile in Patients With Previously Treated High-Risk Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) and Aggressive Lymphomas
    TG Therapeutics' Novel Combination of TG-1101 (Ublituximab) and TGR-1202 Demonstrates Compelling Early Activity and Safety Profile in Patients With Previously Treated High-Risk Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) and Aggressive Lymphoma

    o100% of CLL/SLL patients had significant nodal reduction with either a normalization of or =80% reduction in Blood Lymphocyte Count
    o 4 of 5 CLL/SLL patients achieved a partial response at first assessment, including a patient relapsed from a prior BTK-inhibitor, and the 5th patient with stable disease achieved a 44% nodal reduction pending next assessment
    o 2 of 5 heavily pretreated DLBCL patients achieved a PR, including one patient with GCB subtype refractory to prior therapy
    o Combination appears well tolerated with no dose-related increases in toxicity observed among patients treated to date

    NEW YORK, July 21, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX), an innovative, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, today announced preliminary clinical results from its ongoing Phase I study of TG-1101 (ublituximab), the Company's novel glycoengineered anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody in combination with TGR-1202, the Company's novel, once-daily PI3K delta inhibitor in patients with advanced CLL and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Data from the Phase 1 study is being presented by Dr. Matthew Lunning from the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha, Nebraska during the 2014 Pan Pacific Lymphoma conference being held in Hawaii.

    The poster presentation includes data from patients with advanced CLL, including 17p/11q del and a patient with Richter's Transformation, as well as heavily pre-treated, relapsed and/or refractory patients with Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) and Follicular Lymphoma (FL). I

  • CELG PEG ratio is still ridiculously low despite the triple..(added this table under the SA comment that lied about the CELG PEG)....GILD and BIIB have climbed but still low - biotech is not expensive its cheap - see Street article today


    Company 2014-2015-2016-2017 (FROM ISI recently)

    GILD 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 1.0x

    AMGN 2.0x 1.8x 1.7x 1.5x

    CELG 1.0x 0.7x 0.6x 0.4x (Based on EPS that is likely $1.00+ low in 2016 and 2017 imo)

    BIIB 1.3x 1.1x 0.9x 0.7x

    REGN 1.6x 1.3x 1.3x 1.1x

    ALXN 2.0x 1.8x 1.4x 1.2x

  • Piper - Lots of opportunity ahead:$85 to $115/share. CELG is one of our top large-cap picks in biotech with a reasonable multiple and potential to deliver sustainable 25%+ EPS CAGR through the end of decade & we'd take advantage of today's weakness.

    Piper Jaffray

    Celgene Corporation (CELG) Overweight

    Fine Quarter, Growth Prospects Intact With Pipeline Kickers. PT to $115

    PRICE: US$89.12

    TARGET: US$115.00

    Changes Previous Current

    Rating — Overweight

    RaisePrice Tgt US$85.00 to US$115.00

    C O N C L U S I O N

    This morning CELG reported 2Q results and raised guidance. Total revenue and EPS were a bit ahead of expectations and we're impressed with the pace of adoption for Otezla. CELG appears well-positioned to deliver sustainable mid-20% EPS growth for the foreseeable future which should help maintain the multiple while new pipeline programs emerge to potentially drive additional expansion. We are adjusting our estimates so our PT moves from $85 to $115/share. CELG is one of our top large-cap picks in biotech with a reasonable multiple and potential to deliver sustainable 25%+ EPS CAGR through the end of the decade and we'd take advantage of today's weakness.

    • A fine quarter; don't see why shares should be soft: US Revlimid kept the Revlimid franchise ($$1.214B) in line despite weakness from OUS due to distributor purchasing patterns. Pomalyst was strong at $161M, ahead of the Street by $11M. EPS of $0.90 came in just ahead of the consensus $0.89. Upward revision to product sales ( $7.5bn vs prior $7.3-7.4bn) and EPS ($3.60-3.65 vs prior $3.50-3.60) were driven by non- Revlimid performance. We're impressed with the uptake of Otezla and patient access to date; Otezla's opportunity has been a source of debate amongst investors so this performance helps further establish the company's credibility. While the quarter (and Revlimid in particular) wasn't a blow-out, overall we're comfortable that the long-term prospects for CELG remain strong.

    • Lots of opportunity ahead: Revlimid in frontline myeloma (EU) will deliver a new leg of growth while Revlimid in MCL, MDS are incremental while Revlimid in NHL could be transformative. Other imids are being developed for solid tumors and combination with cancer immunotherapy. MOR-202 could add a new leg of growth in myeloma, Sotatercept could drive new growth for anemia, and epigenetic priming could deliver long-term sustainable growth in the oncology franchise. Otezla launch is going well and should accelerate with new territories and new indications (psoriasis and potentially ulcerative colitis, Behcet's or others). GED-0301 could emerge as a transformative therapy for Crohn's disease.

    • Revisions: Our estimates adjust to reflect CELG's commitment to smooth earnings growth through the end of the decade likely targeting the mid-20% EPS range. This will allow the company to invest more heavily in R&D programs that will deliver growth beyond 2017. As such, a slight decrease in near-term EPS estimates are more than offset by the 2017-20 and beyond opportunity, driving our upward valuation revision. Our valuation methodology is otherwise unchanged

AMGN
142.02+1.31(+0.93%)Sep 18 4:00 PMEDT

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