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Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X ETF Message Board

SMAC693 72 posts  |  Last Activity: May 17, 2016 11:18 AM Member since: Nov 11, 1998
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  • smac693 smac693 May 17, 2016 11:18 AM Flag

    I completely agree with that idiotic assessment: I sincerely hope politicians get out of the way of cannabis research, which apparently has the power to greatly reduce many illnesses and the effects of disease.

    However, investing (which is what we ARE talking about - not some stupid quote from 1912) in a company, whose medicine is easily replicated and whose source is a plant, is possibly a bad mistake.

    Eh, but GWPH stock price is up - my call options are working out!

    I better buy some puts as a hedge...

  • Reply to

    Epidiolex vs. Charlotte's Web

    by smac693 May 13, 2016 8:55 PM
    smac693 smac693 May 14, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    Why are you hoping big corporate monopolizes cannabis?

    You did not address this:

    Epidiolex vs. Charlotte's Web.

    Heck, even GWPH refused to release the drop out rate. Why? Because parents with children with epilepsy want what works best. Char Web works best, especially compared to Epid.

  • Which one works better?

    What is the drop out rate for the Epidiolex study?

    Why do people drop out?

    Do people who drop out return to using something else, like Charlotte's Web?

    If they go back to Charlotte's Web because they see it works better for their child, is this because of the entourage effect, i.e. traces of other compounds like THC or other CBDs are needed, not just the one GWPH has isolated?

    If parents of children with Dravet syndrome find equal if not better success with a complete extract, and any medical facility could make the extract, as they are now in Colorado, why would someone pay thousands of times more for Epidiolex?

    Why would insurance pay for expensive treatment, even if the one compound works?

  • Reply to

    Zogenix' fenfluramine

    by jbpsb1 May 10, 2016 12:19 PM
    smac693 smac693 May 12, 2016 10:02 AM Flag

    "Cannabinoid-containing plant extracts as neuroprotective agents

    Abstract

    The invention relates to the use of cannabinoid-containing plant extracts in the prevention or treatment of neural degeneration. In particular, the invention relates to use of one or more cannabinoid-containing plant extracts in the prevention or treatment of neural degeneration, wherein the one or more cannabinoid-containing plant extracts comprise: i) a cannabinoid-containing fraction; and ii) a non-cannabinoid containing fraction. "

    vivasquat et al:

    Regarding the last few words and item, What is ii)? I think that means that while GWPH has a patent on THEIR extract which includes ii), they do not have a patent on THE cannabinoid extract.

    And again, even if they did, the extract is easily extracted. They would become a patent troll and have to sue and shut down every #$%$ company on the planet, OR, make Epid so cheap, no one would compete. In either case, GWPH as a stock is worth not much, IMO.

  • smac693 smac693 May 12, 2016 9:49 AM Flag

    Dude, not even remotely funny. Just plain dumb. Cannabis greatly reduces many illnesses including epilepsy in children. What's your point?

  • Reply to

    Zogenix' fenfluramine

    by jbpsb1 May 10, 2016 12:19 PM
    smac693 smac693 May 12, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    vivasquat:
    GWPH most certainly does NOT have a patent on the compound in the plant.

    Even if they did have a patent on "using" it, extracting the compound is so easy, any medical facility could do it. So why pay GWPH $9,000?

    You really think GWPH is going to travel around the world suing everyone in every country who is extracting the compound?

    Moreover, Epid should by tested virtually against itself, which is moronic but true: why test it against a placebo or another drug when GWPH does not own the rights to the plant and it's material? THAT is why the phase trial may fail... not because cannabis doesn't work, but because Epid is no more effective than another compound containing the exact same molecule - an extract.

  • Reply to

    Zogenix' fenfluramine

    by jbpsb1 May 10, 2016 12:19 PM
    smac693 smac693 May 11, 2016 10:59 PM Flag

    Cannabis is unlike any other drug you're bring up.

    GWPH has not patented any part of cannabis. They have patented the extraction method they use to extract the medicine.

    Anyone can extract the same medicine without violating the patent. In fact, anyone can use an almost identical process by just changing something small, like the amount of CO2 used, etc.

    Re: inflation: there can be deflation also. If cannabis is legalized, we could grow enough to produce all drugs derived from it for free because no one can patent the plant, with virtually free input costs, meaning the plant and the equipment to extract it.

    My political views are that some sectors should be a lot cheaper, like healthcare. Except that we have to pay huge amounts towards drugs and to the people that prescribe them.

    So, if cannabis is legalized, our healthcare costs will eventually plummet.

    GWPH cannot make money from cannabis for very much longer.

    I am buying deep OTM puts and calls. Unfortunately, both sides are expensive, so I can only go a month out, i.e. May 20s. BUT, one day GWPH will announce positive results. Cool! GWPH doubles. And then someday, their cash will run out. Cool! GWPH goes to zero.

  • Reply to

    Zogenix' fenfluramine

    by jbpsb1 May 10, 2016 12:19 PM
    smac693 smac693 May 11, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    All true.

    The problem I have is with your very last sentence:
    " If Epidiolex is approved by the FDA then parents/patients will have the ability to use insurance to assist with the cost."

    Insurance is a large pile of money everyone contributes to in some form or another (out of pocket, via taxes, etc.), minus insurance company expenses. When one of us gets sick, the money is paid to doctors and medicine so that no one person has to go bankrupt.

    I describe insurance because many if not most people fundamentally do not know the mechanics of all insurance.

    So, to your point: How long are WE going to pay $9,000 per patient for Epid?

  • Reply to

    Zogenix' fenfluramine

    by jbpsb1 May 10, 2016 12:19 PM
    smac693 smac693 May 10, 2016 2:58 PM Flag

    Cannabis and CBD are different. GW could not charge enough long enough for Epid to return any revenue to shareholders

  • Reply to

    Zogenix' fenfluramine

    by jbpsb1 May 10, 2016 12:19 PM
    smac693 smac693 May 10, 2016 12:25 PM Flag

    Charlotte's Web. no need for anything else right now.

    GWPH has a USE patent, on the extraction method they use to extract CBD. However, the method is easily replicated with small changes and hence their patent is basically unenforceable.

    GWPH cannot charge enough for Epid to return any revenue to shareholders.

    GWPH would certainly soar if they announce any kind of positive results.

    But their "medicine" is easily extracted from a plant.

  • Reply to

    Equity or Preferred or options?

    by jbpsb1 May 9, 2016 1:21 PM
    smac693 smac693 May 10, 2016 12:22 PM Flag

    And if the company declares bankruptcy?

    jatote: you left out a hedge: also buy a deeper put, or two.

  • smac693 smac693 May 10, 2016 12:20 PM Flag

    Charlotte's Web.

    Already being used. No need to wait for GWPH.

  • smac693 smac693 May 10, 2016 8:52 AM Flag

    And then went from 130 to 30, by the way.

    And then went from 30 to 90, by the way.

    And? So what.

    Everything in the article is still true... and happening: burning cash, no marketable product, too much competition, and the medicine is from an easily grown plant using easily replicated extraction methods.

  • smac693 smac693 May 9, 2016 9:06 PM Flag

    Re: your second paragraph.

    I am pro marijuana legalization for any use for adults.

    GWPH has a patent on the METHOD of extraction, not the compound.

  • smac693 smac693 May 9, 2016 9:04 PM Flag

    Yahoo inserted something where I wrote "med cannabis". I did not swear.

  • smac693 by smac693 May 9, 2016 9:03 PM Flag

    "Extraction of purified CBD from cannabis flowers is a nearly identical process to extracting purified caffeine from coffee beans. Both are done via supercritical CO2 extraction (among various other methods), and neither chemical compound is patentable as they are both naturally occurring. Instead, GWPH is patenting the METHOD of growing cannabis and extracting CBD under a descriptive set of operations for CO2 extraction. These methods can be very easily recreated to extract CBD in a manner that does not breach GWPH’s patents. "

  • smac693 smac693 May 9, 2016 8:21 PM Flag

    I thought I answered his question.

    Here's my answer again:

    Any #$%$ facility could extract the compound and charge far less than $9,000 per year per person.

    I would not buy from a street corner. I would buy from a #$%$ company.

    Re: My gardener comment: The source is a plant, hence "grown". By professional gardeners, i.e at. #$%$ companies.

  • smac693 smac693 May 9, 2016 8:18 PM Flag

    If my first reply did not go through because it had a URL, go to google and type in:
    gwph cannabis use patent

    There are numerous articles describing my opinion: GWPH is worth zero. They will not be able to charge $9,000 per year per person long enough to return any equity to shareholders. This is because their medicine "patent" is not enforceable; anyone could make it. The source is free - a weed.

  • smac693 smac693 May 9, 2016 8:15 PM Flag

    https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/GW_PHARMACEUTICALS_PLC/136145

    The first page of the above summarizes my opinion.

    GWPH will eventually be zero.

    beognalla: How long could GWPH charge $9,000 per year per person for Epid drug?

  • smac693 smac693 May 9, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    Thanks. Does that explain today's huge drop in JOY? I am long puts and calls for the June 17th expiry.

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